4 Models--
2- mostly snow LYH to ROA and west. Danville- rainy mess. (GFS and NAM)
1- WAYYY to warm and most of the region is rain.( GGEM)
1- Slightly warm-- Mostly snow, NRV and Mounts, Rain to snow a little quicker in ROA, A COLD rain in LYH that ends as a little snow. Everywhere else-- RAIN.
The greatest concern all along has been it being to warm if snow is your desire. The 12Z NAM was about as perfect as you could get track and strength wise. Implied 6+ inches of heavy wet snow with a little more after the model quit running (84 hours out)
After reading these models for 10+ years-- they TEND to be a little too cold aloft and a little to warm at the surface in winter precipitation events. I can't rule out some freezing rain as the event unfolds either.
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