Sunday, April 27, 2014

The Ark and the El Nino..

Big Rains coming this week on the tune of 2-5 inches. Some lighter rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday and the heavier rains move in Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday. Most places reach 2 inches, with up to 5 possible where banding/training shows up. Sometimes nature shows it hands with the places that get the heaviest rains early, continue to get them (Cold pool aloft is ONE cause of this on a multiple day period)

WPC prediction of this week..

The El Nino--
Looking at the data, It's fairly likely we some type of El Nino. The problem is-- what type of el Nino.

We have strengths-- weak, moderate and strong.  My thoughts are based on the PDO, we peak at stronger moderate based on three month average.

We have location-- East Based (Closer to South America Coast)  West Based ( West towards international date line) and Modoki where the warmth is in the middle with cold pools both in the fast east and west ranges of the El Nino regions.

Short term impacts-- Summer should be cooler then normal. Last budding El Nino was 09 and it was a marked cooler summer around here.

Hurricane Season- Once it reaches Moderate status, there is a documented drop in named storms. However, it takes ONE storm to make a season memorable so this can be misleading.

Next winter:
East pumps ridge off west coast and much of the winter ends up mild and rainly.

West based- Usually colder due to ridge ON west coast.

Modoki- in the research out there, colder then west based El Nino's.

If we hit moderate status in this El Nino, I expect next summer (2015) to be BLAZING hot. :)