Late evening trends-- a baby step back.

Watched most of the evening data roll in..


We have a very dynamic system heading our way. My biggest fear all along has been the "north" trend that the models often show. Consider the Dec 18-19 09 event that the models had dumping 2 inches of liquid here in Lynchburg-- all snow, 20 inches. Ended up with 14.5 here at the house-- about 75% of the total possible. The models in the last second jogged something called the 700mb a little to close. If you've heard the term dry slot-- it basically is a place in the development of a low that a wedge of dry air works up. We never got into the dry slot, but sat close enough to turn hours of HEAVY snow into hours of LIGHT snow.

My point-- some data is pulling the 500mb low just a little too close. This is the catalyst, the gasoline that makes our system go. There is a physical connection between the exact tract of this feature and the snow bands that will develop. The more north this 500mb low travels, the shorter time we spent in these bands. The less time, the less  snow that falls.

My original call was 4-8. Since I jumped on that number early, I am completely OK with being graded on that amount. If I had waited, I'd likely thrown out 3-7 for the regions marked 4-8-- based on the data today.
SOME data shows 2-3 inches, with a shot at 5-6  depending where the banding sets up.

My point-- grade me on the 4-8. meaning if the official totals from LYH and ROA are 4, its a win. I'd lean towards 3-7 being the range at this point, the 7 being in the places where the best bands set up.

If you are wondering why I can't say exactly where-- these are like a thunderstorm. One can pinpoint a region where these set up, but not an exact location. Random example-- Roanoke gets 3, Bedford 5, Forest 4, Evington 5, Concord 7, Spout Sprints 3.

Best snows fall between 1 and 5 PM..
Grade me on the 4-8, now expect 3-7.