Noon data is about done-- except the ECMWF
Some of the data infers that the snow is all but done at 7PM and our best snows fall between 1 and 5 PM-- a little quicker compared to before.
There's quite a bit that could go wrong, but so much about this event looks great.
What can go wrong--
1. Temps are borderline-- will start as a mix or rain and change over. Any delay kills the forecast 4-8 inches.
2. The pieces in motion are not set in stone, any deviation can change a forecast. One concern is the upper air support nudges just a little too far north and spares our region the best snows.
3. The overall storm will be moving fast. I've made some assumptions that it snows hard for 4 hours give or take. If the development is SLIGHTLY delayed, we have issues.
4. Some of the model data races the precip out of the MNTS area pretty quickly leaving the Mt. Empire and NRV on the lower side of accumulations.
The good--
1. The models all have about the general same idea-- the fine details is what makes this a 2-3 inch event or 6-8 inch event.
2. The model ideas are slowly clustering towards a general track.
3. Dynamics-- strong upper air low. History tells me this blows up early and not later. Thundersnow is likely some places, especially to our North.
My early AM map stands-- any changes would likely be to adjust the NRV if needed and "MAYBE" a little better detailed for the southside areas. Trace to 4 inches is broad. (But, I don't think I have any readers down there anyways.)
You know at least have ONE reader in the Southside! Not sure you meant the Southside or NRV....Just found you here after seeing Sean Sublette give you some great cred. Glad to have found your blog.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mary-- Nice to have you reading. I'm hoping most of southside at least gets to enjoy a couple inches.
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