Since the winter of 18-19 with a 12-18 inch storm and 20+ inch totals region wide, the next 4 years were paltry with 2 snowless or next to snowless winters(19-20 and 22-23) that bookended 2 subpar winters. The January 3rd storm of 2022 was my favorite with Thundersnow and a smidge over a half a foot falling in 4 ish hour time frame. Last winter was dreadful with three " measurable snows " of .1, .2 and .2 on January 8, February 2 and March 12 in Lynchburg (maybe a little more out here in Forest) Be hopeful because there's a plausible path to have more snow this winter than the past 4 combined in some of our area.
Long range outlooks are risky in the winter because realistically-- If we get one big snowfall, the rest of my forecast could be bunk but it would be remembered as a win. With that, the details to matter but when the standard deviation of our winters are so large, one storm greatly impacts out region. Factors working in our favor are being in a low to moderate El Nino and the QBO being in a negative state which match pretty well with some of our better winters. The semi drought is a concern and when we only get a few shots for decent winter events, timing is everything. The snow winters of 9-10, 02-03 and 86-87 had some common patterns as the one we are heading into.
Seasonal outlook: Temperatures will run from near normal to -2 for the winter. December and then whenever winter ends, maybe abruptly will feature some warmth but much colder than the feel of the past 4 winters. Snow outlook will be broad because it's hard to pinpoint one storm but in general the range will be your average snowfall to double that amount. The "elusive big storm" will make or break these totals. If we get a true blockbuster, the closer to the higher number we will end up with. Conversely, if we end up with a couple of "moderate" events it will end up with the regions average total but will feel much more winterly compared to 2 of the past 4 winters. This winter may also see the " snow on snow, where it snows-- that snow doesn't melt and we get another snowfall on top of existing snow.
Danville Region 10-20 inches for the winter.
Lynchburg Region 15-30 inches for the winter.
Roanoke Region 18-36 inches for the winter
Blacksburg Region 18-36 for the winter.
