First, Merry Christmas to all! Hope your holiday season is filled with love, joy and peace. My 9 year old is almost sure that Santa isn't real, but I just caught him red handed in my house..
I was snapping a pic of my tree..
Had a second pic that looked like "this"..
So, the cold is a little later getting here or we could be talking about a little threat tonight. With that, Grandma's cabin up at 3k feet may see a litle snow up in West Virginia.
We remain cold Christmas week. Model data has been insistent that we see some snow in the next 10-15 days but it can't figure out when/how much. Breaking down the details. The ensemble numbers have been impressive with near double digit totals for the 15 day period.
1. We will have plent of cold/air in place and a "pattern" that supports snow/ice.
2. 2 maybe 3 shots at hand.
3. Details are sketchy, The models have gone from a focus on the Friday event, to a focus on the New Years eve/day event. There is some hints at another event Jan 5/6 which could be the "breaking the cold" storm.
4. Details are are hard with a faster jet, finding the right short wave to amplify is a challenge. Legit shot we get next to nothing and legit shot we score some snow on maybe all 3 events. This is more of an awareness post :)
Friday's event- At this point looks to be a southern slilder, with somewhat of a lack of moistuer. As modeled, if we "max" the potential a 2-4 incher is possible, and a total miss to our south is possible. Worth tracking- moving a storm 100 miles NW on the models in 5 days is not hard at all, but this is less than ideal and very werid set up with cold in place but a second low in the Great lakes and at one point 4 areas of low pressure.
New Years Eve-Day is on some models. The Euro model last run had the cold overwhelm the pattern. Some hints it could be a classic coastal low, (Nor Easter, Maybe a Miller A) Not a lock, but worth watching.
Jan 5-6- Just looking at patterns and longer term ensemble members display a threat. No specifics. Often, as cold leaves and the pattern breaks down you get a See ya! Storm.
Will updated as needed. This evenings GFS/GGEM (American and Canadian) displayed a close call with Friday and more significant event Sunday.
Will blog when more details are needed. Look for updates on Facebook/Twitter and share with your family and friends. If you're bored.. click an ad :)