Monday, December 25, 2017

Christmas week cold and storm threats! 2 or more "shots" at hand, yes I am serious, Clark.

If we could "flip" Christmas and New Years!

First, Merry Christmas to all!  Hope your holiday season is filled with love, joy and peace. My 9 year old is almost sure that Santa isn't real, but I just caught him red handed in my house..

I was snapping a pic of my tree..

Had a second pic that looked like "this".. 

So, the cold is a little later getting here or we could be talking about a little threat tonight. With that, Grandma's cabin up at 3k feet may see a litle snow up in West Virginia. 

We remain cold Christmas week. Model data has been insistent that we see some snow in the next 10-15 days but it can't figure out when/how much.  Breaking down the details. The ensemble numbers have been impressive with near double digit totals for the 15 day period.  

1. We will have plent of cold/air in place and a "pattern" that supports snow/ice.
2. 2 maybe 3 shots at hand.
3. Details are sketchy, The models have gone from a focus on the Friday event, to a focus on the New Years eve/day event. There is some hints at another event Jan 5/6 which could be the "breaking the cold" storm. 
4. Details are are hard with a faster jet, finding the right short wave to amplify is a challenge. Legit shot we get next to nothing and legit shot we score some snow on maybe all 3 events. This is more of an awareness post :)

Friday's event- At this point looks to be a southern slilder, with somewhat of a lack of moistuer. As modeled, if we "max" the potential a 2-4 incher is possible, and a total miss to our south is possible. Worth tracking- moving a storm 100 miles NW on the models in 5 days is not hard at all, but this is less than ideal and  very werid set up with cold in place but a second low in the Great lakes and at one point 4 areas of low pressure. 

New Years Eve-Day is on some models. The Euro model last run had the cold overwhelm the pattern. Some hints it could be a classic coastal low, (Nor Easter, Maybe  a Miller A)  Not a lock, but worth watching. 

Jan 5-6- Just looking at patterns and longer term ensemble members display a threat. No specifics. Often, as cold leaves and the pattern breaks down you get a  See ya! Storm. 

Will updated as needed. This evenings GFS/GGEM (American and Canadian) displayed a close call with Friday and more significant event Sunday.

Will blog when more details are needed. Look for updates on Facebook/Twitter and share with your family and friends. If you're bored.. click an ad :)

Friday, December 8, 2017

Full Snowstorm update 5 am , Friday Dec 8th.

I get that no one else is calling for a major storm yet. No model, NONE doens't give our area a big snow.  NWS has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for the NC/VA border states for 1-3 inches of snow. Our forecast is for a 50% chance of snow.

Last nights call:
1-3 West of 81.
2-4 LYH to ROA
3-6 Southside.

I'm going to hold those I see the noon data. If noon data shows the same information, I will double thouse totals (approx). We just need to train a little more.. :)

3-6  along 81  including Roanoke/Blackburg
4 to 8 Lynchburg to Danville Back west to Galax.

Crazy in that some areas may have some rain or snow falling by then.

The big issue is we have our low in the gulf, and it gets renergize by energy from the clipper energy aloft. This won't happen until late evening and overnight. I imagine our heaviest snows will be pre dawn tomorrow into late morning.  Restated - Our best snows fall towards Morning tomorrow and the bulk of the morning tomorrow. There could be some rain mixed in or even straight rain falling today. **If this pans out, our accumulating snow falls late tonight and tomorrow am**

Still a high risk bust event. Waiting on a storm to fire up overhead is RISKY! Things can go wrong.

Some maps!
This map is the short term Canadian. This is 10 am tomorrow morning. Heavy snow extends back to the blue ridge.

These two are from the latest run of the GFS. So the snow map could be a little overdone with some snow from today melts or falls as rain. But, shows the moisture. 

In summary, HOLDING with our calls but will double if the models hold..(Not doubling southside exactly) The short term models (Higher resolution) start around 9 am and the Euro at 1pm. Will tweet/post updates in run. 

When it's snowing heavy tomorrow morning and you hear a yell, It may be this guy!

Thursday, December 7, 2017

6pm fast update 12/7/17- What is going on..Snow expected

 Model data has trended to a more snowy look.


1.Low in the Gulf was progged to head NE to a spot off the NC coast but be weak. A Clipper system and it's upper air energy didn't look to interact much. The model runs that showed snow had some level of interaction

2. Last night ALL data trended away from a low being close enough for snow.

3. Noon data showed more interaction or phasing between the clipper system over The Great Lakes and our storm in the Gulf. The result is a slower system that is stronger ( Maybe sub 1000 mb east of Hattaras)

4, Snow may be in southside mid morning, up to 460 by mid afternoon, but that's just the teaser.

5. The bulk of our accumulating snows will come overnight into Saturday. There may even be a lull the bulk of Friday evening.

Best guess
East of 81 Roanoke to Lynchburg 2-4
Southside  3-6. (Martinsville, Danville
West of 8 1 1-3

If the trends continue, we could up those especially in the Roanoke and Lynchburg area.. and at some point mixing could be an issue in Southside areas.

Please share this with family and friends.

Rapidly changing data.. expect a ton of data tonight.