Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Late Winter Outlook

 I was wating on a few more outlooks that would clarify some concerns I had about mine and one has still not been issues. But, Winter is here so I must blog.

There were two schools of thought:
1. La Nina after strong El Nino--- cold front half of winter, warmer later:
2. Warm early, colder later.

The bottom line is December looks cold so option 1 seems more likely.

Simple Thoughts: Slighting below normal temps, coldest month in December.
Snowfall- LYH 13-18 inches, ROA 16-21, Blacksburg, 18-23, Danville 6-11

Concerns: Very dry to our south. Meaning, if it's cold but it does not precipitate--it can't snow.

Concern 2: Storm pattern: Even with our 2 BIG storms that got most places near to slightly above normal, we had ice mixed in both events.  December makes it even more challenging to get " all snow" events here.  When 1 decent storm really makes or brakes a forecast, that's always a cause for concern.

General ideas:
Thanksgiving to New Years averages cold with a few snow/ice storms likely.
Early January pattern changes and we have more change.
If the La Nina mainains, often it means a late spring with more shots of snow in March.

Some General examples of post strong el nino into La Nina winters:
2010-11-3 snows in December, snowed Christmas Day.  Not much after that. (Blown event late January)
98-99 The cold was centered west, but we had a BIG ice storm Christmas even and New Years Eve AND first week of January.
83-84- Mega cold outbreak Near Christmas. Most of the area was below zero Christmas Morning.
1966-67 Snowy December. 6-12 inches of snow December 23-24th.

Legit strong cold front comes in this weekend. Upslope snows start -- some flurries may reach into the Piedmont areas (Lynchburg)  I think we will be tracking our first snow/ice event within a month or less (Not really a bold call on November 16th)

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