No Basic Changes--yet?? Winter Storm Watches issues for the Blue Ridge West.

Most of you know I'm a guy who always loved weather-- even took a couple years online classes in the early 00's and do this "tracking and forecasting" all winter. I'm usually tempered with calls and yesterday and I pushed the BIG BUTTON a little early. I was hoping the model data would increase my confidence but reality is it dropped somewhat.

The basis of this was model support was growing for that solution with some adjustments made on climatology and past behavior of systems like this. Last nights model runs where ALL over the place-- most give a minimal of 2-3 inches and some get closer to the 8.

In a set up like this, the exact track of the upper air support ( the tv guys often show a little swirl in the clouds away from the surface low) will make all the difference. Also, often its possible SOME areas verify in the 4-8 ranges while others fall short. During the March 09 storm-- Most of the Lynchburg region had 8-12 inches while 15 miles away in Big Island had only 3 inches.

No major changes today--  Final call after tonights model data.