Model data mid and late week last week looked promising for pre-Christmas snow. There was a lot of chatter on social media but because this pattern has been delayed or not developed as modeled, I was hesitant to mention it until it seemed more apparent an event would take place. Long story short, cold air is on the way but the pattern won't allow the energy to dig enough so we will warm up just long enough to rain then some VERY cold air settles in as Christmas weekend will be below freezing.
Artic fronts like to have a squall line and or strain out all the moisture as the come through but you need a little energy and moisture along and behind the front for this to take place. Some model data suggest this is POSSIBLE. From 6am-10 am Friday the SUPER cold arctic air pushes through and we go from 35-40 to 20 degrees in a few hours. There is a slight chance rain quickly flips to snow and get a quick coating to an inch. Best chances will be along i81 and then slightly east of Lynchburg due to down sloping off the mountains. My current odds of these regions seeing accumulating snows under an inch-
Blacksburg 50%
Roanoke- 33%
Lynchburg 25%
Danville 10%
The GFS model (American model) is the most aggressive with rain ending as accumulating snow Friday. Best shot at a coating to an inch will be above the blue line based on historical data.
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| Brief guess... |
