As discussed in my early morning Friday blog, we were forced to accept the second half of the winter warm up predicted in my seasonal outlook won't pan out. And while the models have hedged at some warmer days compared to the minus -9 average from December the overall outlook was cold.
We have an event on tap for late Monday into Tuesday. Data is still not clear, but 2 systems approach our region-- one well to the north, and one down along the gulf. There is a MINOR amount of cold air remaining in our region from this cold stretch and depending on the amount of moisture that get into the area will determine the total impact.
Event 1.
Late Monday night, A mix of sleet and freezing rain will develop and eventually change over to rain. Tough forecast-- the models have shown anything from next to nothing all together, to 2-3 inches of snow and sleet to freezing rain, to just a good soaking rain. As of now, I think we get a little sleet to start, several hours of light freezing rain changing to rain near dawn on Tuesday. Southside may be spared most of the ice threat while the NRV could start as a little snow.
Event 2.
Another arctic air mass approaches late next week near the time a low pressure forms in the gulf. As of now, the cold air lags JUST behind the storm, so the air in front could be a little to warm, especially east of the Blue Ridge. This could end being an I-81 special where the elevated regions to our west get a decent snow and we get a messy mix or just rain. Cold air fills the region after this.
From here-- it seems the cold bends for a few days, never breaks and remain cooler then normal on average. Behind the system now COULD be some of the coldest air of the season.
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