Had we had blocking in the North Atlantic-- we'd be staring down a MAJOR snow and ice event-- instead the big story will be a Cold November Rain..
|"It's hard to hold a candle, in a cold November Rain"|
The Bookend Problems.
1. The storm should start as maybe a burst of sleet and then some freezing rain. Currently, the western regions of our area are under an advisory for the freezing rain, but it's predicted most areas for SOME ice. Cold air can be stubborn and despite that freezing rain without a cold air source is a self defeating process. (Freezing water actually releases heat, which sounds counter intuitive) And some pretty warm air will be riding over the top, (Surface temps will hold in the mid 30's but at 3-5k feet temps will approach 50)-- sometimes that last 200 feet are STUBBORN to warm up. So, while a trace to slight coating of ice is likely, we need to monitor for a longer period of ice tomorrow morning. Would not be surprised if most of the area ends up under an Advisory.
|Chance of ice over .10 tomorrow.|
Back Bookend: Ending as Snow-- If I had a dollar for every time a storm was supposed to end as snow...they are RARE.
However, this is a unique set up where we have a strong arctic front coming as the storm ends with some strung out vorticity riding along the front. Looking at the soundings, (vertical view of our atmosphere with temps and moisture) I think we do get a quick burst of snow. Most places will have 1-2 hours of gloppy snow flakes falling that melt on contact. I could see a line of snow developing that "coats" cars, trees--grass but it won't be a HUGE deal.
WPC has our region under a 30-50% chance of seeing an inch-- depending on where you are located. The Mts to our west obviously do better.
The Big Story will be "Cold November Rain"
Nothing last forever, even cold November Rain...