Winter 23-24 outlook.

 Since the winter of 18-19 with a 12-18 inch storm and 20+ inch totals region wide, the next 4 years were paltry with 2 snowless or next to snowless winters(19-20 and 22-23)  that bookended 2 subpar winters. The January 3rd storm of 2022 was my favorite with Thundersnow and a smidge over a half a foot falling in 4 ish hour time frame. Last winter was dreadful with three " measurable snows " of .1, .2 and .2 on January 8, February 2 and March 12 in Lynchburg (maybe a little more out here in Forest)  Be hopeful because there's a plausible path to have more snow this winter than the past 4 combined in some of our area. 

Long range outlooks are risky in the winter because realistically-- If we get one big snowfall,  the rest of my forecast could be bunk but it would be remembered as a win. With that, the details to matter but when the standard deviation of our winters are so large, one storm greatly impacts out region. Factors working in our favor are being in a low to moderate El Nino and the QBO being in a negative state which match pretty well with some of our better winters. The semi drought is a concern and when we only get a few shots for decent winter events, timing is everything. The snow winters of 9-10, 02-03 and 86-87 had some common patterns as the one we are heading into. 

Seasonal outlook: Temperatures will run from near normal to -2  for the winter. December and then whenever winter ends, maybe abruptly will feature some warmth but much colder than the feel of the past 4 winters. Snow outlook will be broad because it's hard to pinpoint one storm but in general the range will be your average snowfall to double that amount.  The "elusive big storm" will make or break these totals. If we get a true blockbuster, the closer to the higher number we will end up with. Conversely, if we end up with a couple of "moderate" events it will end up with the regions average total but will feel much more winterly compared to 2 of the past 4 winters.  This winter may also see the " snow on snow, where it snows-- that snow doesn't melt and we get another snowfall on top of existing snow. 

Danville  Region 10-20 inches for the winter.  

Lynchburg Region 15-30 inches for the winter. 

Roanoke Region  18-36 inches for the winter 

Blacksburg Region 18-36 for the winter. 

Could we see a Festivus Miracle??

 

Model data mid and late week last week looked promising for  pre-Christmas snow. There was a lot of chatter on social media but because this pattern has been delayed or not developed as modeled, I was hesitant to mention it until it seemed more apparent an event would take place. Long story short, cold air is on the way but the pattern won't allow the energy to dig enough so we will warm up just long enough to rain then some VERY cold air settles in as Christmas weekend will be below freezing. 

Artic fronts like to have a squall line and or strain out all the moisture as the come through but you need a little energy and moisture along and behind the front for this to take place. Some model data suggest this is POSSIBLE.  From 6am-10 am Friday the SUPER cold arctic air pushes through and we go from 35-40 to 20 degrees in a few hours. There is a slight chance rain quickly flips to snow and get a quick coating to an inch. Best chances will be along i81 and then slightly east of Lynchburg due to down sloping off the mountains. My current odds of these regions seeing accumulating snows under an inch-

Blacksburg 50%

Roanoke- 33%

Lynchburg 25%

Danville 10%

The GFS model (American model) is the most aggressive with rain ending as accumulating snow Friday.  Best shot at a coating to an inch will be above the blue line based on historical data. 

Brief guess...

Ice is inevitable..

Timing of onset vs timing of change to ice will dictate how much snow vs ice we get. What started as a Saturday into Sunday event is now a Sunday event. Some data even has an afternoon start of the storm. 

We will have crazy cold air in place. Temps could be in the teens with snow then ice falling.  This will be snow in the south in places like NE Georgia, TN, upstate SC and into NC that changes to ice. The concern is that as the low moves our direction the BITTER cold is leaving and allows the storm to take an inland path that always leads to some ice in our region. The other odd factor is that because the air is so cold, the precipitation holds off because of the dry air and then starts as the cold air is leaving. Double whammy. 

To get the most snow we need it to start early Sunday AM. Completely possible, but just may not happen. If not, we will get a GOOD snowstorm but it will go down as another mixed bag in much of our region that "could have been".

The mid range euro and NAM, short term model has snow over most the region by 1pm, temps in upper teens and lower 20s.  General rule of thumb is snow tends to change over faster than modeled. This could be the exception but I'd not bet against it.

At 7pm here is an image of temps at 5k feet. Simple put, blue shades are below freezing.  Ice is well into SML and Lynchburg  and likely even farther west with a warm layer being above this one layer.

Southside- highest risk of serious ice after some snow.  Snow range 3-8 inches then ice. 

SML to LYH area- moderate risk of ice after a significant snow.  Snow range 5-10 inches

Places west of the Blue Ridge, I 81 region including Roanoke, Blacksburg and Lexington. Mostly snow, may have some mixing. 

8-14 inches, maybe more. 

Places that remain mostly snow should see double digits. 

Woah, that was fast! 3 to 8 inches of snow likely region wide.

We have a storm on the way. High risk, high reward type event where the margin for error will be very small. 

1. The storm isn't a shock but the magnitude and intensity of the pending event could be shocking. It was on the models off and on all week. We needed the upper air energy to close out and space out and it did EXACTLY what was needed. Adding, if we had any cold air in place this would be a historic snow for much of VA. Instead it's 61 as I type this. 

2. Timing is key. It will snow but a few degrees warm, precipitation moving to fast, etc could be the difference between a slushy inch or two and 7-8 inches. Cold air being a little to slow or storm moving a little to will really change the outcome of the event. 

Timeline- 

Rain develops late evening and overnight. Rain should be hard. Between 4 am and 7 am, the rain should mix with and change to snow. Whatever is falling will be heavy. Snow should between 9 am west and maybe closer to noon eastern areas. Snowfall rates may be among the best we've seen here. Some "hour" data shows several hours of 1-2 inches an hour of snow falling. 

Snow totals- In general, 3-8 region wide is a good guess with a strong understanding this is not a "locked" forecast at all. One thing goes wrong, we end as flurries- conversely a deepening low could flip it to snow sooner and someone gets over 10 inches. Both options are viable at this point. 

Serious ice or serious sleet? Big event on the way region wide.

 Winter Storm watches are out for everyone in our region for a little snow, some sleet then ice. 

The basic set up is we have a piece of the polar vortex moving across New England pushing cold air into our region at the same time the "south east ridge" ridge means warmth in weather terms. This battle between the warm and cold will make for very moisture laden system with precipitation amounts of 1 to maybe 1.5 inches. 

I'm somewhat optimistic at this point that it will be a serious winter storm in the NRV to ROA to LYH with some icing concerns but we may just see enough sleet to mitigate HUGE issues with our power grid. (May, not a lock yet) This could keep freezing rain total UNDER a catastrophic level. Southside is another issue where they will get mostly freezing rain. As bad as the Farmville to Charlotte to Halifax area saw, this could be worse and more wide spread with more precipitation and colder tempatures. 

1. It may be a smidge colder, especially early on. You may be shocked to know that ice builds up more at 29 degrees than 31 or 32. 

2. It may rain harder, which is actually a good thing with freezing rain because it can't freeze fast enough but the duration will likely offset this. 

Basic Details:

Snow sleet and freezing rain develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Midnight to 4 am)

Southside: Quick burst of sleet to freezing rain. This will have a huge impact on the power grid. An inch or more of freezing rain will fall and build up on trees, power lines etc. I expect serious issues in this region with long term power outages.  Ice build up will be greater than a half inch most areas. It may take days to restore power. 

North of an Amherst to Daleville line, precipitation may start as an inch or two of snow, then sleet. 

** Caveat** The GFS blast a quick burst of snow from the NRV to Charlottesville that is in the 4-8 inch range before ice. I don't think it's going to happen but wanted to throw it out there. This gives Lynchburg an inch or two at the same time before any sleet falls. 

NRV to Roanoke to Lynchburg- 

A quick burst of snow will flip to sleet. We should see a good bit of sleet before freezing rain because the "warm layer" sits pretty high, above 5000k feet and from that point to the ground is a solid 3--6 degrees below freezing. That's a classic sleet signal. We could see between 1-4 inches of  quick burst of snow then mainly sleet. This should eventually mix with then become freezing rain and we will get a quarter inch of freezing rain build up. Most places had that in this past event, so I think we can mostly survive without HUGE power issues. With that, this is a Fragile forecast because if we change to freezing rain sooner, the Ice build up and power outages will be greater. 

For this region, I mostly see 1-4 inches of sleet, then freezing rain of about .25 build up. This is close to a crucial breaking point but hopefully we stat at this level. 

Temperatures may creep above freezing later Thursday but the damage will be done. We have better antecedent cold air, so there is a shot we remain at 31-32 until Friday AM. 

I'll pop some images on the bottom of this post but here are two- the top is predicted sleet  and ice accumulation from the RGEM model.  Note the sleet is total in inches and that in general 1 inch of rain is 3 inches of sleet. (meaning that most those in that area see an inch of precipitation fall as sleet.  Also note that the freezing rain map counts all that has fallen but it all won't freeze because when it is HEAVY freezing rain much runs off before it freezes. With that, those totals over 1.5 inches will be catastrophic. (At this point, those in Southside and Northern NC)

Wintery 10 days coming up- can we do better than mostly ice?

 We have a fun, fascinating pattern setting up where a piece of the polar vortex will position itself over the upper Midwest. (Great for Cold)

We also have a Southeast ridge based on other issues in the pattern ( Leads to warmth for the southeast) We sit in the Northern part of the south, tucked in near the Blue Ridge and quite honestly, the next 10 days will be chaotic. 2-4 chances of winter precipitation(and rain) We could see 2-3 inches of liquid in that time frame and trying to separate what falls when and where will be a challenge. 

Event 1 2-11/12. Cold air sinks in from the North, rain changes to freezing rain then sleet and perhaps snow. In general the further north you go the more sleet and snow you see. This likely won't be a big snow maker but 15 miles may be the difference between 3inches  of a sleet snow mix and a half inch of freezing rain. 

* I think the kids are out of school regardless most places Friday and maybe even Thursday*

Event 2 possible as early as 2/13 or Saturday as another weaker wave drops some light freezing rain during the day Saturday. 

Event 3 has the potential to be the worst of the three. This would be on or about February 16th.  The cold air REALLY builds in at the surface and some data suggests an ice storm that starts while temps are below 20. This would be Monday into Tuesday time Frame.  This is just one plausible outcome, but isn't the forecasted outcome at this time.  Liquid amounts of over an inch with temps in the teens rising towards freezing has BIG TICKET written all over it. 

This is a map of the heights anomalies. In simple terms, heights are calculated by the average temperature below that level. Those area blue and purple along the Canadian border and much lower than normal heights, meaning COLDER than normal temperatures. (Actually a piece of the polar vortex is there) The red over the Southeast USA is higher heights, or what should be warmer than normal temperatures.  

This gradient between higher heights and lower heights is creating all these storms. Cold air likes to push south in this pattern but is being pushed back by the Southeast Ridge. If that ridge wasn't there, we'd be cold and dry and that meaning very cold.  If that colder anomaly was not there, we'd be rather warm. What makes our situation unique is the Blue Ridge Mountains where the cold air, which is heavy and dense gets trapped and can't be moved out. (Remember, cold heavy- warm, lighter)  Some of the data for our storm Tuesday has surface temps in the teens but 5000 feet above temps are in the 40's. For those who remember the ice storms of 1994, this pattern is not far off looking 6-7 days out. 

The first of three chances is on Sunday- Monday.

 The long story short is we should have 3 distinct chances at some wintry precipitation starting Sunday. We can get all 3, we could get 2-3, (Which by Meatloaf standards isn't bad) We could only strike on one event and we could miss all 3 (And with three strikes you're out)

Setting up Sunday is a storm cutting to our west Friday that cause some rain then drag a cold front through.  A second piece of energy will then trail up that cold front. Where this gets dicey is- some model data doesn't push the cold through enough and primary low goes into the Ohio Valley then a secondary low forms. This set up ALWAYS changes us over or event starts as ice or rain OR the boundary could push too far south and is oriented in a way that allows it to escape harmlessly out to sea.  

I'm leaning towards Ohio Valley transfer at this time- but have plenty of time to adjust. This favors more snow in western regions, mix/rain set up East of Blue Ridge and Mainly Rain southside. 

Event two will be about Feb 11 second change at a winter event. (It's also the 38 year anniversary of the Megalopolitan storm of 1983 that dumped 15-20 inches region wide in our area of Virginia. I was 9 years old and we had true blizzard conditions at my home in New Castle, Delaware. 

We should have better cold air in place for this event and if there is any threat, it would be suppressed (To our south) or sheared (Upper energy weakens) and the storm falls apart. 

Looking past Valentines day, the 14-16 range may hold the best potential of the year as the blocking maxes out and just starts to relax. Often, in those relaxation stages a big storm pops. This is 2 full weeks out but this image shows strong cold air in place via upper air energy (starting the 50/50 lat/lon) with pieces of the a weakened polar vortex across the upper mid west. Energy near Cali indicates either ONE big storm potential or several smaller events if only pieces of the that upper energy comes out. 

The red stretching from Maine to Minnesota is a fragment on the weakened polar vortex while that red over the northern Baja is upper energy from the sub tropical jet.  

 

Again, this is about potential, not actual events. Things will change and adjust as we get closer. If you love snow, get your favorite lucky mug and if you are a snow hater, well- we went 700 days without accumulating snow. We know what they say about paybacks! 

Not a bad week, do we have an encore on deck?

 Well, region wide we did well with most places seeing between 4-7 inches of snow and sleet last night and today. For those in the Lynchburg vicinity, we broke out of our two year long snow drought. 

Wednesday night and Thursday ended being an official 2.1 inch snow.  I was a little worried when it was raining in Roanoke and 41 degrees here, but the "sounding" of the LYH was literally cold enough for snow, except for the surface. Sure enough, a few sprits of drizzle then snow. 

Last night and today was a bit of a challenge but one thing I said is that the 2 short term models that didn't have a decent snow were too slow bringing in the precipitation. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Round 1 was a half inch to an inch, we had a lull and fired up quickly, region wide as snow. Everyone had a little ice on top and now we sit at my house at 31.5 degrees. 

The Lynchburg seasonal total is officially 7.3 as measured by WSET while my house with 2 smaller events sits at 7.8 inches. 

We seemed destined for a week warm up and by the time the snow melts off the warm up may be only a couple of days. A late week storm will cut up into the Great Lakes regions. VERY cold air will filter in behind the storm Friday and some data suggests another storm forms and approaches the area Sunday. IF we get the snow and the cold, we will go in the ice box for a few days with multiple days possible below freezing. Here is a temperature map 2 days after the storm, at 1pm with temps in the TEENS across the region. Even if it is 10 degrees too cold, we are in the upper 20's early afternoon. 

So, road conditions will slowly improve tomorrow, we get a break from winter weather then we wait for the fine details of late weekend.  Could end up being just a blog that I post later isn't an option or we are forced to keep tracking it. 

Yes, it can snow in Lynchburg, and more may be coming.

Apologies for you non Lynchburg readers but we went almost 2 years without accumulating snow. The official WSET total reported to the NWS will be 2 inches on the nose, ending the worst snow drought in recorded history. Had a little drizzle to start at my place and was worried but snow started at 40 degrees and we quickly tumbled to 33 then 32. Beautiful snow that stuck to everything.

Sunday looks promising with the usual caveats meaning things can change this far out. 

1. We don't have much wiggle room with for a north trend. Often this close (under 72 hours) the north trend isn't the snow line moves north but they realize on the models the heaviest snow will be north of displayed on the model. 

2. Simple set up to start. We have a cold, dry air mass in place and warm air starts to ride over it creating snow. With strong cold air replacement, this means an eventual change to ice then rain. 

3. There is a primary low that will travel into Kentucky, maybe even Ohio that is forced under the strong blocking to our north. Depending on where this develops, we could get a little bonus snow Monday but I am not banking on this. This low will be slow to move out and some places, like DC area north to Philly suburbs will have a decent coastal event. 

What we need is the block to hold this little piece of energy in a confluent jet that will keep the cold in place and push the storm south. 

             Southside- Martinsville, Danville to South Boston 1-3 inches of snow to sleet and freezing rain. Ends as rain. Temps remain in mid 30's through Monday. 

              460 Corridor from East of Blue Ridge, into Lynchburg region including north SML to Altavista to Appomattox. 3 to 6 inches of snow, ends as ice. Freezing drizzle possible until Monday. Additional light accumulations possible Monday. 

Snow starts after Midnight Saturday and most is done by noon Sunday. Reminder. If the cold air isn't as strong, we will change to ice and rain faster, changing these amounts. This is a first look. 

 

 

That red dot east of Cape Cod needs to remain in place to hold our cold air in place and force the system south enough

Wednesday Night- Thursday Snow storm.

 Well, we made it to Sunday and we still have a snow threat middle part of the week. With that, the threat changed in how it is set up. 

The first view on the models had well into cold and very dry air and a storm even cutting west of our region, snow would break out and likely maintain as snow as the low jumped towards the coast. 

As we've gotten closer, the storm seems to be about 12 hours faster, starting overnight Wednesday and the cold air is not quite as strong changing the storm to a dynamically driven event. (And that's if the event takes place) This means we have to rely on the a strong upper air low to interact with the surface low and cool the atmosphere by both pulling in the cold air that is slowing sinking towards our region AND the strong lift (rising air cools, sinking air warms) from the deepening low.  This is because we don't have cold air in place, but arriving and being created as the storm unfolds. 

We have 2 basic storm evolutions displayed:

1. Precipitation from the west comes in over head as the upper air and surface low interact. Storm gets close enough and we got heavy rain to heave snow. Data showed 4 to 8 inch snow totals in this event with a sharp south cut off. Remember, 4 days out thinks like to drift north so this could happen but we get next to nothing. 

Another evolution problem is that some models showed the precipitation moving in from the west and as the transition happens the precipitation collapses quickly towards the low. Hence, we get the higher end solution but it infers risks that little to no snow could fall in that region. (That zone was east of the Blue Ridge)

Variations of this are show on the GFS and to an extent the Canadian Model. 

European model risk of 3 inches in percentages. 

American Model risk of 3 inches. 

2. Very little precipitation over head initially but the upper air low initiates a round of snow more along the lines of 1-3 inches. These tend to be more challenging to forecast because upper air snow "form during the event"-- so some people get it and some don't. The models showed a NW to SE band of snow that coved much of our region. 

Variations of this have been shown on the Euro and UK met model. 

Snow Potential. 

30% chance your specific location gets no measurable snow. (Trace amounts fall here)

40% chance your location sees a coating to 2 inches. 

20% chance your location sees 2-4 inches

10% chance your location sees over 4 inches. 

Here are my current views for risks

Very broad brushed at this time, but this is by far our best shot region wide for some snow. Each region has reasons why they could miss. Southside could be too far south, NRV and I81 region could be too far west. Lynchburg could literally be to east, too west, to north and too south. (It feels that way after almost 2 years with no measurable snow) 

To Ridge or not to Ridge

 Despite the mini blizzard in parts of the region yesterday,  we have no specific threats on the horizon for winter weather. We've had some great blocking in the North and East of us (Good for snow) but inconsistent blocking to our West. This lack of blocking, combined with the very Warm December has killed any change of snow. If we had any level of pre existing cold, we'd of had a few events at this point. Instead, Lynchburg and Danville have no snow while Roanoke and Blacksburg are inching forward with small events. 

A key source of our cold air comes from the EPO region (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and where that Ridge sits controls if Canada gets cold. Remember, Canada was very warm after December and the cold has been blocked on the other side of the  world. 

There could be some light rain or maybe even light snow Friday across the region but early next week there is a threat of something (January 25 to 27) Some models are running the low pressure across the Great Lakes (maybe some ice to Rain) Some are taking it right at us which is snow to ice to rain some places and a few, which in build that ridge across Alaska force it to our south and we see some snow. I have no faith in this ridge because it's been "forecasted" to build all month and simply has not, but eventually it should.  If the ridge isn't there, the cold air that comes in simply isn't that cold and the storm will move to our north. 

In a La Nina winter, quite often the best threats are in February and actually into March but early month I was somewhat optimistic we'd have an event or two by now. At this point, I am just hoping we can get an event or two this winter. La Nina winters are use less than average snow save a winters aside. 

Will we Cash Out or Crap Out?

 In the digital world of weather, the 0Z (Midnight run) of the Euro had 3 digital storms starting with Friday that brought us all snow each storm. The end total was 10 to 18 inches total from the three storms region wide. 

Will We Crash in or Crap out? The noon run of the same model lost all 3 storms, for those wondering. 

Specific to Friday's event. Those who forecast this right will have a blend of both luck, skill and climo knowledge. 

Summary- A low pressure and associate upper air low will approach the area. Some unusual factors make it a challenge to see how far north this storm will make it. Further, this may be a rare case where the upper air low impacts our area. Last big time I think this happened, Roanoke and Blackburg had 10 inches of snow in 3 hours during February of 2014 (after 10 had already fallen)

I am against showing the digital snow maps but I will show a few to show the challenge. Making it worse, the models often shift back and forth on what the outcome will be. 

Mid afternoon run of 12k NAM, Big snows southside, misses most of Roanoke to Lynchburg. 

Noon run of American Model that show now snow within 60 miles of Lynchburg. 

\

3k NAM run mid afternoon, big snows into LYH, still mostly a non event in Roanoke. 

We are 48 hours from the event where clarity is not event close and many outcomes are possible. With that, it's not called forecasting for nothing. 

My initial thoughts for this first event-

Snow breaks out towards Morning southside and over spreads the entire region. This first push first guess is 2-4 inches from about the NRV South East towards South Boston. Further SW VA may do better here ( 3 to 6) Along 460 From Roanoke to Lynchburg this round will bring 1-3 inches. 

From this point, the forecast is tricky. The upper air support should then create a second round of snow. This is more tricky because it should be convective (think thunderstorm like, hit and miss) You get in these bands, you could get another 3-5, if you just get brushed another inch or two. Some places may be done after the initial push of snow. Very challenging. 

So, my current "First Guess"

  NRV down to Southside- 2-4 inches then we wait on the bonus snow.  If you get in the good bonus snow another 3-5 is possible. everyone won't get this. 

Roanoke to Lynchburg 1-3 initial push. 3-5 bonus snow possible too. Same disclaimer for not everyone will get it.

Everyone won't get it because often these bands set up and just don't really move. Then then weaken in that spot and form elsewhere. 

This is not a final call and this will change before the event.  Some timing issues where some models really hold off accumulating snows until late afternoon and other have snow on the ground in Lynchburg by 7 am. 

Other events worth watching early next week and then NEXT weekend.  Expect updates via Twitter and FB. 

The answer may be Friday/ Saturday to the question I get asked the most.

There is an event I've been tracking a few days that looks to take place in the Friday to Saturday time frame. We have the "Blocking" pattern I discussed but not a ton of cold air. A few models have hinted at the block forcing a system to our south with just enough cold air for snow in parts of the region. In the past couple runs of the models, there seems to be growing concensus in the models that the storm will both travel to our south and have "just enough cold air" in place. 

 Points to ponder- 

1. Things change as we get close. This is an outlook 5 days away. 

 2. Timing is not locked in as some models show early Friday start and others early Saturday. 

 3. Models have looked colder, not super cold as we get close. We obviously need the cold. Some places east and south may not have enough cold air or depending on timing, places may start as snow and end as rain. 

 4. This event that may stay to our south with the upper air puts is in "cold conveyer belt snows" where the upper air feature provides "banded" snow. Heavy in those bands and sad for those outside. Makes for a wide range of totals. 

 5. Would not throw out any totals but potential is there for an "advisory type event" which is an event of basically under 4 inches and yes, there is potential for a "Warning" event which is more than 4 inches.

 I'll tweet or FB updates more often if warranted and then throw another blog out by sometime Tuesday. We should have a pretty good handle on if the storm will come to fruition in some shape by that time.

This maps shows our blocking (red- higher heights and blue lower heights. Should help keep this storm south.

This is our upper air low moving due east from TN into NC. That's a great track for our region. As always, models like to push the precipitation NW as the event gets close, but data is a bit suppressed for our region, which is a good thing 5 days away.

The question I get all the time-- When is it going to snow?

 Christmas Snow was nice for people west of the Blue Ridge, but accumulating snows never made it into Lynchburg. I wasn't shocked, but it was definitely a snow win for the Roanoke Valley. 

This pattern is weird in that November was so warm AND the Jet coming off the Pacific is so strong, we can't build any cold air in North America. We have good blocking  in the NAO and AO regions, but when those areas are toasty warm,  it doesn't matter. This active storm pattern with cold air would have a few snow to ice to rain events, but the lack of cold air gave us a marginal ice event and that's it for winter events. . 

Moving forward, a few things will happen:

1. Seasonal temps just get lower. I mean, It's January. Easier to snow with our lowest temps of the year because it doesn't have to be a huge anomalous cold. 

2. The blocking over Greenland (Good if you like snow) will drift even further west towards  Baffin Island, Canada. This aides in our cold air regions. It doesn't allow for Pacific air to invade Canada. They cool down, even if about normal and it is forced south. 

3. We have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming starting early January. The simple version is winds reverse way up in the stratophere that helps weaken the Polar Vortex. This sounds counter intuitive, but a strong polar vortex is bad for us and weak is better because it pushes cold air away from the artic regions and down to the mid latitudes where we reside. 

These both pre and post conditions to the Warming are likely connected by various factors and it should help shape a good pattern from January 15th into parts of February if you are a fan of cold and snow. We have no specific threats at this time, but my hunch says by mid January threats for snow and ice may be on tap. The last time we had something like this happen was 2018 and the pattern held up about 6 weeks with 3-4 winter events. (The last was snow on April 9th in Lynchburg and the Timberlake Tornado happened 5 days later)

Summary: Colder air should be in place by mid month with some specific storm threats likely at that time. Pattern may last 4-6 weeks of colder/ threats for winter precipitation. 

Red to Brown is higher heights over Greenland into NE Canada (Baffin Island) and Green and Blue over Aleutian Islands (Lower Heights, vortex) is a good look for cold and snow. 

Wednesday December 16th is worth watching for snow/ice threat.

After literally no real threats last winter, December 16th maybe worth watching for a winter event. 

Sunday night into Monday brings in MORE rain, adding to our record setting year of precipitation in Lynchburg. At this point the plot thickens..

What we know-

1. Cold air is building in from the North and west Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Storm associated with a short wave develops in the mid south. 

What we don't know-

1. How much cold air will be in place. This matters greatly for obvious reasons. 

2. Storm track- Some data shows this as a "Miller B" where a low forms and moves to our west while a secondary low forms off the Atlantic cost somewhere.  With our proximity to the mountains, often this means we warm at the mid levels but not at the surface.  Snow usually changes to ice in these set ups, faster the further south and east you are located from Lynchburg. 

When will we know?

Wednesday is 5 days away so generally we know there should be a storm that day and enough cold air should be in place for for some winter precipitation.  General ideas of what to expect should be in place by Sunday. 

Highest risk for snowfall will be places along I-18 from the Mt Empire, through the NRV, Roanoke and heading towards Harrisonburg. A change or mix to ice and even rain very much in play here too. 

Next risk Level would be Smith Mountain lake towards Lynchburg with Snow and ice combination likely that could end as rain. 

Lastly, Southside including Martinsville, Danville and South Boston would have the lowest risk but snow/ice and rain are likely. Still may end up with a significant winter event. 

General rules I follow about these type events. 

1. We tend to warm at the mid levels faster than modeled- meaning if a mix or change may happen, I usually speed it up on my forecast.

2. Surface temps like to be colder than modeled in this set up. Cold air damming (Surface high to our north that forces cold air down the east side of the mountains) tends to be stronger than modeled. A change to ice doesn't mean warmer at the surface. I usually lean a few degrees colder at the surface. 

Will send updates as needed as more data becomes available. It seems like there could be a decent amount of moisture associated with this event-  from .75 to maybe 1.25 inches of liquid equivalent, meaning whatever falls (Snow, Sleet, Freezing rain and or rain) will be impactful to your work week starting late Tuesday and into Wednesday and Thursday. 

Winter outlook 20-21

 Well, winter literally could not have gone any worse in Lynchburg with the first goose egg ever. (Some data may show otherwise, but I have searched climate data for years here, we had never had a zero. At my house in Forest we had more than a trace ( about 3/10 of an inch) but still. Horrible. 

Winter 20-21 will feature a low to moderate La Nina. Isolating those years, One year was our best winter ever (1995-1996) and recent winters of 2010-2011, 2016-17 and 2017-2018. 

2010-2011 had a snowy December, a near miss in January then winter ended (Missed a small event in March)

2016-2017 had a decent event in Early January then a miss (not near miss) early March. 

2017-2018 was a good winter South and East of Lynchburg and Roanoke and decent for those along the 460 Corridor (Blacksburg had a huge late March snow too) There was a decent event in December, especially south and east of Lynchburg, a decent snow better south and east of Lynchburg in January. February was warm but had one minor event. March was cold and snowy. 

La Nina winters tend to be drier than normal and we have to rely on the polar branch to deliver snow.  The mean storm track isn't great- to our west and north but at times leads to the 2-5 inch snow to ice events, especially Along 460 with a risk for a bigger/decent event. 

Temps- 2-3 degrees above normal for the winter, Risk for coldest month is December and first half of January. Warmest Month - February. Could have an extended winter well into march. 

Precipitation 10-20% below normal for the winter. 

Snowfall by region-

Southside including Danville-  3 to 10 inches. 

NRV including Blackburg 12-20 inches. 

Roanoke region- 10- 15 inches.

Lynchburg region 8-14 inches. 

* One big storm can ruin these small totals*

Will run an update before December 1. 

This will likely be Lynchburg's first snowless winter in recorded history- Bad data lead to a 1996-97 report of snowless winter.

George Flickinger is a really good met. I keep score on my forecast vs the locals and George is doing well vs Me. Kicking my butt this year because the 2 events I thought we'd see an inch or so were wrong by me and more correct or spot on by George.

George reported earlier in the week that 1996-1997 was a snowless winter in Lynchburg. This wasn't his fault as he pulled data from the NWS website.

Here is the full story: LYH had a small NWS office here until consolidation took place in the mid 90's. All the offices were folded into the wider regional offices that we currently have. This lead to roughly some point in 1996 until 2003 have spotty data for snowstorm reporting. Weird in that there was no official measuring spot but data has just popped in there from some of the years. They missed 1996-1997 totally.

So, for those who don't know VirginiaWx (Keith Huffman) is a LPC (Licensed Professional Counselor) who also studied meteorology on his own plus  perused a degree a degree in meteorology for a while but did not finish. Crazy in that I 100% love each field. My counseling career has focused on child and family work and while I love meteo-- snowstorms are my favorite. Any "event" is really exciting to me.

The weather passion has always been there. My dad (Who was a weather enthusiast) as a child is blinded from an explosion in Vietnam. He still loved weather and as a blind person used the old NWS phone numbers and wx radios to track storms with me as a kid and we had it down to science of what network showed their weather. (This was up in the Philly Area for those wondering)  My Dad was funny in that because he was blind he had to walk outside and put his face towards the sky to "feel" the snow on his face. We starting following weather together as early as 1978 (Blizzard of 78) and by the time I was a 4th grader- we had no rules for bedtime when snow was approaching. He'd wake me up to tell me what was on the way or I'd be up at 4 am waiting for the updated forecast that scrolled across the cable access channel.

From that, I could literally name every time it snowed from about age 8 or 9 until the mid 90's when moved to Lynchburg for graduate school. I can still name all the big storms but the random 2-3 inchers did get a little more challenging.  I could name every good storm we had in Lynchburg since 1996 with a few gaps in small events under 4 inches but could get the "vicinity" time wise. Memory is just a strength of mine and I have weird catalogs of sports data, world and us history, weather events and will remember people's life stories like it's nothing. The counseling aspect came from just getting a kick out of hearing people's stories and then figuring out their idiosyncrasies.

I did this from memory on WSET Wx page-  but here is what I recall about that winter with odd details.

Storm 1 Was December 5th. They called for rain but the temp hoovered around 32 all day. Snow broke out around 5 or so and after an inch or so where I lived on Wards Ferry Road, changed to rain. Just north and west of town had 3 to 5. There was even a difference between Wards Road and Forest because I worked the next day at Stanley Steemer  and worked in Forest where the roads where snow covered.

Storm 2 Was January 9th 1997. I remember first hearing about the potential on Tuesday January 7th as I was off work and school had not started yet. Taking a long drive up towards Natural Bridge, I had my weather radio and the storm was explained. By Wednesday there was a Winter Storm warning most of the area. Lynchburg west was 3-6 inches with 1-3 for Appomattox south and east. Snow started over night and then changed to sleet and freezing rain mid to late morning. I recall the sleet lasted longer then anticipated because about 3pm I remember seeing it bounce off the trashcans. We had about 3 inches total.

There was a trace of snow on January 11th from a strong arctic front. I saw Legends of the Fall that night at the old Dollar movies in Candlers station.

Storm 3 was February Feb 8th 1997 and was about 5 inches. It was supposed to be all snow until late evening on the 7th "May start as rain" was added. Temp was about 37 when it started as rain and changed to snow in about an hour. I actually was hoping to have off that day (Saturday) at Stanley Steemer but we worked despite the snow. We (Wayne and I ) drove out to Appomattox where it was snow then down to Red House/Brookneal. Somewhere between those 2 areas the snow changed to rain and it was a pretty stable line. We drove into the rain for a house then drove past and it changed at about the exact same house. Snow lasted till late afternoon and there was a final burst of snow  in the last hour that pushed totals to about 5 inches. I recall playing my weather radio that even cited Lynchburg, Heavy snow at 4pm.

Storm 4 was Valentines day into the 15th that was those storms that keep getting "cut back"- 4-6, then 2-4 then 1-3 before rain. I hate those storms so I don't remember the exact total but I think under an inch that started late afternoon.

George has agreed to research this data. Funny thing is I've cited these issue before and been told I was wrong by MANY mets on social media. Some have heard me and acknowledged the data gap. The same issue exists for Danville but I don't know their storm totals for their events in the gap period.

I'd be glad to help fill in the gaps but not sure if my offer would fall on deaf years. Historically, Lynchburg averages  about 17 inches of snow. Despite a decent decade for big storms, we've not had many "BIG winters" so the last 10 years average is about 16 inches last I checked.

First snowfall of year possible early Wednesday.

Decent shot at some accumulating snow Wednesday AM. 

Cold air swoops in just as our storm  arrives  hence most places will start as rain and change to snow. Higher Elevations along and west of Blue Ridge may see 2 to 5 inches,  The Roanoke Valley into Lynchburg coating to maybe 2 inches. South and East of there will end as snow..little to no accumulations. 

Timing- Higher elevations/ I 81 area change to snow between 3am and 5 am. Roanoke should be in this time frame but there should be a big difference between snow totals along Orange Avenue, downtown areas vs Cave Springs, High Elevations in Town. 

Areas east of there should change between 5 and 7 am-- including Lychburg. Moderate to heavy snow may fall for a couple hours but temps hover just above freezing. Coating to two inches. Places like Forest, Goode, Elon and Amherst may do a little better than downtown Lynchburg. 

South of this area, most place end as snow with a coating at best. 

We are about 60 hours away from this event, so expect some changes, but the data has been positive for us snow fans. The rest of you, HUSH.. It's Christmas. 

I've attached a rough copy of my first thoughts. Will update as needed. 

Possible ice to rain set up Thursday night and Friday.

A winter outlook of sorts..

VirginiaWx has been busy with his non social media life and is late on his winter outlook. My historical methods included readig a ton of outlooks by others, combing through what I like and what I don't like then really analyzing local climo records to see what happened in the analog years.

Winter outlooks are fickle in that one storm can make or break a snowfall outlook and if it's not snowing, people don't care about cold. Last winter we had the big December event. Funny in that Danville didn't have any measureable snow after that event and all stations got near normal to above and actually was about 150% of normal with the 15 inches during the big storm.

Winter 19-20:

Temps 1-2 degrees above normal, snowfall near normal. Best chances for snow/ice will be in the second half of winter.

Long term averages is 22 in Blacksburg, 19 in Roanoke, 17 in Lynchburg and 10 in Danville.

Positives: QBO trends, Ring of warmth in the pacific Northwest, neutral conditions tend to favor colder winters.  Good Eruasian Snowcover.

Negatives: Lack of strong evidence that supports a more harsh winter, some of the analog years were duds  Long pattern of persistent warms, NAO ran negative most of the summer. IN those samples only 2-13 had negative NAO winters.

Looks like we will have a cold November.  This may lead to a flip warm in December which works well with my backloaded winter.

I'll start to tweet/post ideas about events and patterns and then blog when events appear on the horion.

Major winter storm on tap starting tonight.

Cold arctic air being attact by the subtropical jet will bring us a little bit of everything.  The hope is we don't get enough freezing rain to cause major power outages. 

The skinny. 

Snow overspreads the area this evening between 9 and 12pm. There may be a period of heavy snow.

Southside- Snow Coating to 2 inches. 

Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg 2-4

Northern Amherst to Lexington to Hot Springs 3-6. 

Sleet will mix and change over by 4 am most areas, if not sooner. Snow totals include sleet. You may see 2 inches of snow then an inch of sleet. 

Mid to late morning the snow becomes freezing rain. 

Freezing rain totals will be just at the tipping point were power outages happen. 

Freezing rain totals a long 460 will bet between .2 to maybe .4 with a little less down in southside. Some of the higher elevations will see up to a half inch. 

Temps will struggle to get above freezing.. Here are two models showing the 10pm Wednesday temps and the areas nestled just along and west of the blue ridge are still right at 32. Because the rain will come in waves, the lighter periods actually are more damaging because they accrue better than heavy freezing rain. Simply put, cold are is really hard to scour out in these type set ups. 

Will update as needed. 

Would not be shocked if we went under the snow totals as at times these events like to change over sooner or would no be shocked if we saw another inch or two if the snow comes in heavier. 

Will update via post/tweets as the day unfolds but I would not expect and major changes.