Ice is inevitable..

Timing of onset vs timing of change to ice will dictate how much snow vs ice we get. What started as a Saturday into Sunday event is now a Sunday event. Some data even has an afternoon start of the storm. 

We will have crazy cold air in place. Temps could be in the teens with snow then ice falling.  This will be snow in the south in places like NE Georgia, TN, upstate SC and into NC that changes to ice. The concern is that as the low moves our direction the BITTER cold is leaving and allows the storm to take an inland path that always leads to some ice in our region. The other odd factor is that because the air is so cold, the precipitation holds off because of the dry air and then starts as the cold air is leaving. Double whammy. 

To get the most snow we need it to start early Sunday AM. Completely possible, but just may not happen. If not, we will get a GOOD snowstorm but it will go down as another mixed bag in much of our region that "could have been".

The mid range euro and NAM, short term model has snow over most the region by 1pm, temps in upper teens and lower 20s.  General rule of thumb is snow tends to change over faster than modeled. This could be the exception but I'd not bet against it.

At 7pm here is an image of temps at 5k feet. Simple put, blue shades are below freezing.  Ice is well into SML and Lynchburg  and likely even farther west with a warm layer being above this one layer.

Southside- highest risk of serious ice after some snow.  Snow range 3-8 inches then ice. 

SML to LYH area- moderate risk of ice after a significant snow.  Snow range 5-10 inches

Places west of the Blue Ridge, I 81 region including Roanoke, Blacksburg and Lexington. Mostly snow, may have some mixing. 

8-14 inches, maybe more. 

Places that remain mostly snow should see double digits.