Well, winter literally could not have gone any worse in Lynchburg with the first goose egg ever. (Some data may show otherwise, but I have searched climate data for years here, we had never had a zero. At my house in Forest we had more than a trace ( about 3/10 of an inch) but still. Horrible.
Winter 20-21 will feature a low to moderate La Nina. Isolating those years, One year was our best winter ever (1995-1996) and recent winters of 2010-2011, 2016-17 and 2017-2018.
2010-2011 had a snowy December, a near miss in January then winter ended (Missed a small event in March)
2016-2017 had a decent event in Early January then a miss (not near miss) early March.
2017-2018 was a good winter South and East of Lynchburg and Roanoke and decent for those along the 460 Corridor (Blacksburg had a huge late March snow too) There was a decent event in December, especially south and east of Lynchburg, a decent snow better south and east of Lynchburg in January. February was warm but had one minor event. March was cold and snowy.
La Nina winters tend to be drier than normal and we have to rely on the polar branch to deliver snow. The mean storm track isn't great- to our west and north but at times leads to the 2-5 inch snow to ice events, especially Along 460 with a risk for a bigger/decent event.
Temps- 2-3 degrees above normal for the winter, Risk for coldest month is December and first half of January. Warmest Month - February. Could have an extended winter well into march.
Precipitation 10-20% below normal for the winter.
Snowfall by region-
Southside including Danville- 3 to 10 inches.
NRV including Blackburg 12-20 inches.
Roanoke region- 10- 15 inches.
Lynchburg region 8-14 inches.
* One big storm can ruin these small totals*
Will run an update before December 1.
No comments:
Post a Comment