The first of three chances is on Sunday- Monday.

 The long story short is we should have 3 distinct chances at some wintry precipitation starting Sunday. We can get all 3, we could get 2-3, (Which by Meatloaf standards isn't bad) We could only strike on one event and we could miss all 3 (And with three strikes you're out)

Setting up Sunday is a storm cutting to our west Friday that cause some rain then drag a cold front through.  A second piece of energy will then trail up that cold front. Where this gets dicey is- some model data doesn't push the cold through enough and primary low goes into the Ohio Valley then a secondary low forms. This set up ALWAYS changes us over or event starts as ice or rain OR the boundary could push too far south and is oriented in a way that allows it to escape harmlessly out to sea.  

I'm leaning towards Ohio Valley transfer at this time- but have plenty of time to adjust. This favors more snow in western regions, mix/rain set up East of Blue Ridge and Mainly Rain southside. 

Event two will be about Feb 11 second change at a winter event. (It's also the 38 year anniversary of the Megalopolitan storm of 1983 that dumped 15-20 inches region wide in our area of Virginia. I was 9 years old and we had true blizzard conditions at my home in New Castle, Delaware. 

We should have better cold air in place for this event and if there is any threat, it would be suppressed (To our south) or sheared (Upper energy weakens) and the storm falls apart. 

Looking past Valentines day, the 14-16 range may hold the best potential of the year as the blocking maxes out and just starts to relax. Often, in those relaxation stages a big storm pops. This is 2 full weeks out but this image shows strong cold air in place via upper air energy (starting the 50/50 lat/lon) with pieces of the a weakened polar vortex across the upper mid west. Energy near Cali indicates either ONE big storm potential or several smaller events if only pieces of the that upper energy comes out. 

The red stretching from Maine to Minnesota is a fragment on the weakened polar vortex while that red over the northern Baja is upper energy from the sub tropical jet.  

 

Again, this is about potential, not actual events. Things will change and adjust as we get closer. If you love snow, get your favorite lucky mug and if you are a snow hater, well- we went 700 days without accumulating snow. We know what they say about paybacks!