1. The storm isn't a shock but the magnitude and intensity of the pending event could be shocking. It was on the models off and on all week. We needed the upper air energy to close out and space out and it did EXACTLY what was needed. Adding, if we had any cold air in place this would be a historic snow for much of VA. Instead it's 61 as I type this.
2. Timing is key. It will snow but a few degrees warm, precipitation moving to fast, etc could be the difference between a slushy inch or two and 7-8 inches. Cold air being a little to slow or storm moving a little to will really change the outcome of the event.
Timeline-
Rain develops late evening and overnight. Rain should be hard. Between 4 am and 7 am, the rain should mix with and change to snow. Whatever is falling will be heavy. Snow should between 9 am west and maybe closer to noon eastern areas. Snowfall rates may be among the best we've seen here. Some "hour" data shows several hours of 1-2 inches an hour of snow falling.
Snow totals- In general, 3-8 region wide is a good guess with a strong understanding this is not a "locked" forecast at all. One thing goes wrong, we end as flurries- conversely a deepening low could flip it to snow sooner and someone gets over 10 inches. Both options are viable at this point.
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