Thursday, January 28, 2021

Yes, it can snow in Lynchburg, and more may be coming.

Apologies for you non Lynchburg readers but we went almost 2 years without accumulating snow. The official WSET total reported to the NWS will be 2 inches on the nose, ending the worst snow drought in recorded history. Had a little drizzle to start at my place and was worried but snow started at 40 degrees and we quickly tumbled to 33 then 32. Beautiful snow that stuck to everything.

Sunday looks promising with the usual caveats meaning things can change this far out. 

1. We don't have much wiggle room with for a north trend. Often this close (under 72 hours) the north trend isn't the snow line moves north but they realize on the models the heaviest snow will be north of displayed on the model. 

2. Simple set up to start. We have a cold, dry air mass in place and warm air starts to ride over it creating snow. With strong cold air replacement, this means an eventual change to ice then rain. 

3. There is a primary low that will travel into Kentucky, maybe even Ohio that is forced under the strong blocking to our north. Depending on where this develops, we could get a little bonus snow Monday but I am not banking on this. This low will be slow to move out and some places, like DC area north to Philly suburbs will have a decent coastal event. 

What we need is the block to hold this little piece of energy in a confluent jet that will keep the cold in place and push the storm south. 

             Southside- Martinsville, Danville to South Boston 1-3 inches of snow to sleet and freezing rain. Ends as rain. Temps remain in mid 30's through Monday. 

              460 Corridor from East of Blue Ridge, into Lynchburg region including north SML to Altavista to Appomattox. 3 to 6 inches of snow, ends as ice. Freezing drizzle possible until Monday. Additional light accumulations possible Monday. 


Snow starts after Midnight Saturday and most is done by noon Sunday. Reminder. If the cold air isn't as strong, we will change to ice and rain faster, changing these amounts. This is a first look. 

 

 

That red dot east of Cape Cod needs to remain in place to hold our cold air in place and force the system south enough



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