First, please post me your obs, pics et al on FB and Twitter tomorrow. I really do enjoy them.
I wish we had more clarity. I'm still sticking with my call of 1-3 inches from Roanoke to Lynchburg, with 3-4 just north through Northern Amherst County.
I'm stil shocked the NWS has stuck with it's 4-6 call for 460 north. Much smarted and educated mets there, but the data, outside the GFS/ SREF has not supported that call.
Couple fears-
NAM and RGEM, 2 short term models are very dry, like .05 to .10 total liquid. This would be coating to an inch and it can't be ignored.
Short term models called RAP and HRRR seem to support this, if not WORSE. However, they are known for being north at this range.
GFS model is like old consistent friend. It won't ever go crazy either ways, has some flaws but you can work around the. It has been consistent with 2-4 inches.
The sooner the snow starts, the more we will get. (Brilliant) That's because the precipitation will move east and slow at some point, if that doesn't reach your region by mid to late morning, you may have a long wait.
Could be one burst in AM, lull with ligher stuff and one more nice burst mid to late afternoon.
Final call:
1-3 ROA to LYH
2-5 NRV-MT Emire up 81. Once you get up to Staunton, those numbers Double
Coating to 2 inches south of Stauton River, down to NC state line.
Guessing for exact cities.
Blacksburg 3.3
Roanoke 2.3
LYH 2.5
Danville- .5 (as in half inch)
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