Monday, January 13, 2014

Cold and colder, but when will we get snow?

The unique thing about this winter so far is the cold air is NEVER that far away, but also that it's always quick to leave. Tremendous blocking in the north Pacific and west coast regions have lead to frequent cold air outbreaks, but also lack of blocking to our east has allowed the cold air to BOOK out of here quickly and we've had a rather benign 2-3 ice events and flurries a few times.

After this respite, which has been a bit cooler than first modeled, more cold air is coming in. For the next 10 days, when it's cold I'd call the air " cold enough" to snow cold-- but not like the "Cold day" of last week. (Hello polar vortex). The week leading to the Superbowl, we may get blocking over the poles that could push the "Polar Vortex" back for a swing through.

January should finish well below normal . "Hello busted January forecast".

Snow chances?
1. Shot for a coating Wednesday evening as the cold front passes a ton of energy on the back side is trying to fire up a storm. Surface temps are marginal and it could be NOTHING or rain, but coating can't be ruled out.

2. Another couple shots over the weekend and early next week. Nothing huge, coating to 1-2 inches at best. It's pure speculation at this point.


After that, it's more speculation. Pattern does not look ideal for a widespread BIGGIE event. But regional and local places always have shots when it's cold. (Not the North Carolina to Maine BIG event)

Keep expectations for a 1-3, 2-4 and 3-6 type events and we should have that type window from Jan 22- Feb 5 or so.

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