Noon model data is in--
Not great for Lynchburg Snow, Roanoke snow and reigon wide snow. It will snow, but likely a 1-3 inch event.
Not as robust if you are a snow fan. Average liquid is maybe .15 to .20 across the board and the trend has been moving the heaviest amounts to the north. A classic mistake is to assume that northern trend is DONE. These northern stream systems are classic for teasing those to the south only to end up much more north of where they were modeled.
When you don't get the heavier snow, in simple terms you also don't get the best snow growth, so the ratio issues I discussed are not as big of a factor.
As stated, I was a bit shocked NWS went Winter Storm watch-- this is a tricky system, but I don't see a likelihood of 4+ inches, If anything I wish I had held fast to my 1-3 thoughts.
Going with my original thought-- 1-3 for Roanoke to Lynchburg
2-4 NRV north along and up 81 (Excluding Roanoke)
Coating to an inch down to NC state line.
20% Chance it trends more north and we get only flurries/snow showers that make a dusting.
65% chance we end up in my current calls.
15% chance we exceed that 1-3 event.
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