Where do we go from here??

As we close out December with ONE very warm day, how does January unfold? My original outlook expected December to be a colder than normal month and the COLDEST of all three winter months. January was to start cool--but end warm and February was to be warm.

December was COLD-- top 5 cold. Most expected a cold December, just not THIS cold. I'd not have expected 6-12 inches of snow region wide, but that's the hardest prediction to make.

At this time, it does appear that we will rebuild the -NAO (Greenland Block) starting early next week and some threats will be in line after that.

Attached is a map that shows heights rebuilding into Greenland (Good sign if you want more cold and BAD if you hate it) Recall that we never got a BIG storm because

1. Lack of Sub tropical Jet due to moderate la nina
2. Lack of PNA ridge-- normal "lack" in la nina winter. We had the Greenland block retrograde into Canada and link up with the lack of PNA ridge, leading to our BIG Christmas snow ( HUGE event in NC and than up the coast)

Note the ridging into Greenland-- eventually  cools us down and the baggy nature of the green colors over the SW tells us there is some energy heading east. Off the cuff, this type set up leads to more of an icing threat compared to snow. (Note-threat, not a forecast)

New Years Weekend starts dry and warm and a cold front comes through New Year's Day NITE--temps being to cool and we wait and see how the pattern sets up for January.

In the FWIW department-- I was reading some research about the EXTREME Greenland block and -AO we had in December. Blocks that extreme are rare, but when they do happen, they usually repeat themselves later in the winter. So, my warmer Jan and Feb COULD be in trouble.