The little Clipper that could..maybe?? 2 models come back with a tad more snow.

** Data now snows 1-2 inches likely region wide**

Clippers are fun when they make it to our region--- hard to forecast, but in if your wrong-- an inch or two isn't going to shut the town down for a few days. Someone in my weather community compared this event to the Dec 24th 1999 clipper--was forecast to be flurries and ended up dumping almost 3 inches in Lynchburg, on Christmas Eve.

Computer modeling has come a long way in the past few years, but still has some basic flaws. All models often have a "south bias"--so as a storm gets closer it moves north. Think of the snowfall last winter on Jan 30th. For days they thought the best snows would fall over NC and southside, only to charge north late and drop a foot here and Danville mixed with sleet.

This clipper--again is having those same issues. It trended SOUTH, and south and south to where last night it was going to snow in upstate SC (if cold enough). Now, its slowly tracking north via model data--

I'm attaching precipitation forecasts from the 18z (Late afternoon) and 0z (late evening) of the NAM. While these maps are the LEAST reliable (that's another blog)--it shows what I mean--you can see the nudge north in the heaviest band PLUS its a little stronger. Sometimes clippers develop whats called a strong low level jet--which causes convergence (two air masses running into each other forcing the air up. This causes heavier precipitation.

Top image is the latest run--and the bottom image is late afternoon. Note there is more precip east of the Mts and its nudged north.

Last image-- Lift at 7pm tomorrow. Nice band right up and down the 29 corridor.

Lift = snow. 

I'm expecting 2-3 inches in Blacksburg, 1-2 in Roanoke and Danville and a Coating to an inch in Lynchburg. Jog this thing another 30 miles north and those totals could double.