Love the one you're with--- snow totals increase for Thursday, chances decrease for the weekend event.

Over Running events are a fun challenge-- with the extreme blocking in place, the amount of moisture, possible mix or change to sleet and freezing rain all have to be factored in. Over running is a term used when there is cold air in place (I'm assuming you noticed the cold today) and some warm air attempts to move it out of the way. Cold air is heave and dense, so it runs over the top of the cold base and makes it precipitate.

The data has taking a strong trend towards two things
1. Cold air holds longer--
2. More moisture.

The most extreme version of this is depicted in the NAM model that gives most of our region about a half inch of liquid, mostly falling as snow (5 inches or so--- and 3 hours of rather heavy snow.) This model tends to over due the precipitation but, I do give it some credence because its a regional model--(covers the US) not a global model that does the entire earth.

Let's start the bidding at 2-4 inches for the night and go from there-- and it still will end as a little freezing drizzle but 90% of the moisture falls as snow. I would not be shocked at all if this ends up as a low level winter storm warning with a 3-6 range region wide.

Snow starts around sunrise Thursday, heavy at times in the morning and over and done by 2 PM.

This map shows the extreme solution with a band of 5 inches running along highway 460.


Event two is less promising if your a snow level--- with the lack of a sub tropical jet, many factors have to come together perfectly to get a good coastal low. There has been a decreasing amount of support from the computer models today-- so I'd downgrade this to highly unlikely. Keep in mind, we don't downgrade because a model says so--but because the pattern as depicted doesn't support a storm.