Stick a fork in this one--because it's done!

Bye Bye Christmas storm-- Hello, easy travelling.

If you live by a modeled forecast, you die by the modeled forecast. A model called the ECMWF has proven for about 10 years to be the most reliable forecasting tool. However, it will have speed bumps in the road. Just last week it tried to blow up a late weekend storm and brought snows from NC to New England. Again, this time the same model had an EXTREME set up where heavy snows would fall from SC to New England. I have no issue with the National Weather Service and other media outlets reporting this possible storm because of the HUGE impact on Christmas travelling.

You may ask why? I really don't like the old phrase-- Being a weatherman is a great job because you can be wrong half time time. Reality is, people who say that know nothing about the science of meteorology. Some brilliant people have made great advances in this field-- and its truly shown when you look at the data. When you can't control the factors and can't get exact data at the exact time for all the layers of the atmosphere-- it becomes rather complicated. Literally 6 hours difference and a couple hundred miles on the short waves (energy aloft--they often show you picture of spinning clouds if you pay attention during storms) would have created this monster event.

Last winter was EASY-- we had a very strong sub tropical jet and extreme blocking. VERY easy to get major storms and most were modeled out well far in advance. This year, a La Nina, the challenge is greater because rather then having that strong sub tropical jet, we are rely on "phasing" because the sub tropical jet is a little starved for moisture.

The term "phasing" means the jets work together to create a storm. The challenging aspect is that if they phase late--even by 12 hours, they can cancel each other out, move the storm track well away from the threatened area and other factors like that.

There could still be a period of light snow and flurries Christmas day, but this big threat is basically dead (Could see a coating to an inch Christmas day). Cold lingers the remainder of the week and December finishes top 5 coldest month ever. Lynchburg has a shot at the coldest December on record. From there, the pattern breaks down -- the model data hints it may be only temporary before it reloads cold but I'm not willing to budge (yet) from my thoughts that by mid January we are rather warm and February is even warmer.