A little snow this AM, a little ice later on today--

Very rare snow this AM-- easterly fetch from from the Atlantic made a little low level snow to fall. I had no idea we could get something like this this far west, but that's exactly what it was. Since it came from lower tops, wasn't showing up on radar to well either. I have a friend up in Charlottesville who reported a half inch or so.

We've got a freezing rain advisory for everyone in our CWA except the counties along the NC border east of the Blue Ridge-- This won't be a huge event as a far as rain totals, but we've been colder the last 2-3 days and any thing that falls COULD cause a small mess. Temps are in the lower to mid 30's with the dewpoints around 30. If we get a steady rain, temps could fall as low as 30 with the dryer air a little higher up. A few pings of sleet are also possible, especially early. This rolls in after midnight as the winds shift to the south with a stronger storm to our west and low level cold air in place.

I'm glad the NWS put up the advisory-- my fear in events like this is one lives in a warm spot, sees no ice on their car and drives off to hit an ice patch. I've mentioned before in my blog, but there was a rough event like that back in December 07. Only .02 liquid fell, but the roads were horrible between the start and 11 am or so with some horrific wrecks near my home in Forest.

As always, I'll update as needed- via facebook at Keith D. Huffman, add me if you like the data or twitter Lynchburgwx

Long rang still looks uncertain. Reading some conversation between guys with a better skill level than I, wild guess is February comes in close to normal-- maybe 1 degree above normal. Better shot of some ice/snow compared to Dec and Jan, but nothing major. We are still lacking high latitude blocking.

Ice is forming on the tips of my wings--

A little Pink Floyd for some late night ice--

As I suspected, we've flipped to freezing rain in Lynchburg, yet rain in most other regions. Strong flow down the east side of the Blue Ridge brought down just enough cold air to bring us to freezing. I did a brief walk outside and there is no ice on the cars yet, but on some of the trees and bushes there was just enough to notice it if you felt it.

This won't be a huge ice storm, but I just cringe at the thought of ONE bad wreck due to lack of warning. The off hour runs all showed freezing rain in Lynchburg-- so, I'm not shocked, but as I stated, I could have easily seen this being a 33 and very cold rain.

Be safe-- only the favored spots in the shade could get an icy spot or two. There are some heavier bands of ran heading our way and that actually helps the ice to NOT freeze to marginal freezing temps. (Rain falling faster than it can freeze)

Be safe-- if you have friend or family who went to a late movie, grab some food- shoot them a text out of caution.

Some sleet now, freezing rain very possible later tonight--

I just pulled in from work and a little sleet is falling. Model data has been very slowly trending colder at the lower levels of the atmosphere. The first bouts of sleet will fall as there is a pretty dry layer. As the sleet gives way to more rain, the lower levels of the column will cool and some freezing rain is likely in Lynchburg proper between 9 PM into early tomorrow morning. I can see the temp parking at 32.5 and NO icing occurring, but can also be at 31 or so where icing occurs on elevated surfaces etc.

Because the cold air is north south based -- Roanoke should be sleet but mainly rain after that.

Be alert-- will update on Twitter and facebook as needed.

What happened to winter?

It's January 10th and we've maybe had 2-3 days that FELT like winter. WOW

Why? Literally everything in the global pattern has pointed towards warmth. What is everything-- Teleconnections. Teleconnections are indices that gauge pressure at various place on the globe that show the general short and medium term weather patterns. PNA, NAO, AO, EPO, and MJO all measure various factors and when they measure certain ways we know the pattern is more favorable for cold and snow. In winter, one of the biggest buzz words used is the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation in simple terms measures pressures up near the north pole. When it is positive. it tends to keep the cold air bottled up near the north pole. The negative phase allows the cold air to spread away from the pole. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation while measured separate (a contrast between the Icelandic Low and Azores high-- or simply the pressures near near Greenland compared to the Azores ( The area east of Bermuda but west of Africa and Europe)  There is a .82 correlation between the AO and NAO-- meaning when the AO runs one way, the NAO usually follows suit. The AO has been positive all but a few days since November and the NAO has been all but positive. 

How does winter end?? Simply put-- I'm not convinced either way. Most winter outlooks took a more traditional La Nina of colder December, warmer in January and warmest in February. This have all been wrong. I did share one outlook from a forecaster named Keith Allen.   Here where he predicted the coldest weather in February. So, not everyone went a more climo Nina. 

With that, I'm not convinced we are heading there.  What I do expect--

1. More frequent shots of cold air--even if they only last 2-4 days. 

2. Increased shot of minor snow events- Maybe a Clipper over the late weekend (I'd favor it passing to our north and bringing an inch or two near DC up towards the Mason Dixon line.

3. Between days 10-15 the pattern slides warmer as the Pacific NW becomes a colder up into western Canada. 

4. After that-- maybe a push east again. 

In general, nothing TOO exciting. As far as winter storms, 2-3 weeks down the road I can see us finally getting something where the cold air bleeds a little further south and we get an overrunning event. That is pure conjecture on my part, nothing on the models or pattern. 

There may be reason to update more, but nothing threatening at this time. 

Rainmaker incoming! (ending as snow??)

Despite the record setting +AO, a storm approaches and bring a TON of rain-- upwards of two inches. Here is a smoothed map by the NWS RNK. Free plug for them, they are now on Facebook. If you keep up with your news feed they do often link various maps of interest.

The fun and tricky part of this even is that is COULD end as snow, especially in the Mountain Empire, NRV, Highlands where an inch or two is possible and maybe even into Roanoke (Maybe a coating) Lynchburg may end as snow, but the last 2k feet are a tad warmer and I just can see a few gloppy flakes falling. I'm never a fan of these events as often the models are a little too slow pulling out precipitation and as that doesn't always equate to the cold air being faster with the snow. So, I like 1-2 in the higher elevations west of 81-- maybe 3-5 above 2500 feet. If your an 11 PM news watcher-- Wednesday night may have some flakes flying as far east as Lynchburg. The Storm is all but done by 2 AM- even in Lynchburg.

I've attached 2 MAPS-- one is from the 6z NAM-- it's not that aggressive on the western flank with snow and the second is the outlook from the HPC about where they think 4 inches or more is possible. It's pretty bullish, more bullish compared to my current thoughts. 

HPC MAP- Best threat along 81--

 Blue is low risk and green is medium risk of 4 inches.

NAM 6z- 1-3 inches along 81.


For Giggle-- I will show the most aggressive model with snowfall- I think it's too aggressive and 

not factoring in the low level warmth well enough. 

I think this is over done as it has an inch WELL into NC, south of Danville and the 3 inch line knocking at Lynchburg's door.

Record setting POSITIVE Arctic Oscillation could be harbinger of coming winter--

I know my readers don't always get the technical weather talk and I strive to break it down where it's easy to understand. Back in the past 2 winters-- the Arctic Oscillation has been VERY negative in our very cold times, RECORD negative in 09-10 when we had those major snowfalls. This scale tells us in simple terms whether the cold air will be bottle up towards the north pole or be shoved away from the pole. Currently we have a NEAR RECORD POSITIVE Arctic Oscillation. (It hit OVER a +5, 2 highest reading EVER)

This doesn't mean we won't get any cold - but future events can be hedged by looking at past events. We can get cold here-- one of the years the DAY we set the record "Christmas Eve 99"-- there was a surprise snowfall in the Lynchburg area of close to 3 inches. (One of my favorite surprise events ever- I was tracking the clipper and it was expected to be dry east of the Mts-- the snow started just as a dropped off some gifts for a VERY special family-- was a special day) We can get cold air-- but long lasting cold air is harder to get. Ice events are more likely as there is nothing to FORCE the storm to our South and East.

Years with the record AO+  that took place in December,
Winter 51-52,  71-72, 75-76, 79-80,  83-84, 91-92. 92-93, 99-00, 06-07

Big snow winter-- 79-80

Average- 99-00, 71-72

The rest were BELOW-- some worse than others with 75-76,  83-84, 06-07 being among the 10 LEAST snow winters ever.

The two that are second yea La Nina's-- like this is would be 75-76 (Yikes) and 99-00.

99-00 had a really aggressive winter pattern with 4-5 events in a two week stretch and that was IT. The last even LOOKED to be a big snow event but as it trended closer became a snow to sleet to ice to sleet with 2-3 inches near LYH of ice/slush and more like 5-7 out in Roanoke. The BIG event was a surprise event on Jan 25-- that shocked us all. The synoptic pattern was unique in that there was a negative tilt troff sitting just of the SC/GA coast and a shortwave dug in like crazy and blew up. There was a ton of dry air aloft and so it was literally 10 minutes from 8 inches of snow in LYH to NONE in Bedford. My point-- that was a rare event and atypical for a La Nina winter.

With that, I'd strongly hedge that we pull back our winter expectations. Mts will still get plenty of upslope snows, I'd be shocked if anyone east of the mountains (Roanoke included) breaks 10 inches on the year. I'd increase the risk of an more significant ice storm with low level cold lurking and a bad storm track.

In the near term-- we do have a few shots of cold air incoming, but they won't last long.  I don't see much to think we get into a pattern that looks anything like winter in our region. A cold front passes Wednesday and SOME data has hinted a shot of snow as it passes, especially to our north. Those events are RARE and I don't expect it to pan out.

Safe travels today-- big ticket weather event late weekend.

Everyone is likely about on the road now. The weather has been warm a few days, a couple cold and back to warm. This will continue. We've had the exact opposite of the pattern we'd need to get sustained cold. (Not that it's a bad thing in November, but often the November pattern does tip the hand of winter)

Keep an eye on the forecast for Sunday. Pretty intense storm passes to our west will place much of east coast in the warm and unstable sector. (AKA- late fall severe weather likely)

Good link to an article written by Wes Junker- He's likely the best forecaster I know- and it ain't that close from him to second. The article discusses what goes wrong and forecasting and why. Worth the read, even if you don't get all the science part.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/why-are-snowstorm-forecasts-sometimes-so-wrong-part-one/2011/11/23/gIQA4ZfaoN_blog.html#pagebreak


Happy thanksgiving to all! If a pattern change comes- I suspect Dec 15-20 will be the NEAREST time we experience it.