What happened to winter?

It's January 10th and we've maybe had 2-3 days that FELT like winter. WOW

Why? Literally everything in the global pattern has pointed towards warmth. What is everything-- Teleconnections. Teleconnections are indices that gauge pressure at various place on the globe that show the general short and medium term weather patterns. PNA, NAO, AO, EPO, and MJO all measure various factors and when they measure certain ways we know the pattern is more favorable for cold and snow. In winter, one of the biggest buzz words used is the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation in simple terms measures pressures up near the north pole. When it is positive. it tends to keep the cold air bottled up near the north pole. The negative phase allows the cold air to spread away from the pole. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation while measured separate (a contrast between the Icelandic Low and Azores high-- or simply the pressures near near Greenland compared to the Azores ( The area east of Bermuda but west of Africa and Europe)  There is a .82 correlation between the AO and NAO-- meaning when the AO runs one way, the NAO usually follows suit. The AO has been positive all but a few days since November and the NAO has been all but positive. 

How does winter end?? Simply put-- I'm not convinced either way. Most winter outlooks took a more traditional La Nina of colder December, warmer in January and warmest in February. This have all been wrong. I did share one outlook from a forecaster named Keith Allen.   Here where he predicted the coldest weather in February. So, not everyone went a more climo Nina. 

With that, I'm not convinced we are heading there.  What I do expect--

1. More frequent shots of cold air--even if they only last 2-4 days. 

2. Increased shot of minor snow events- Maybe a Clipper over the late weekend (I'd favor it passing to our north and bringing an inch or two near DC up towards the Mason Dixon line.

3. Between days 10-15 the pattern slides warmer as the Pacific NW becomes a colder up into western Canada. 

4. After that-- maybe a push east again. 

In general, nothing TOO exciting. As far as winter storms, 2-3 weeks down the road I can see us finally getting something where the cold air bleeds a little further south and we get an overrunning event. That is pure conjecture on my part, nothing on the models or pattern. 

There may be reason to update more, but nothing threatening at this time.