Top Weather Stories of 2018.. and a sneak peek into 2019.

I do make snow maps for the entire region, but I am Lynchburg centric on much of my banter talk  because I live there. It could easily be made this has been the most extreme weather year EVER in the Hill City.  I'd refer to you Kevin Myatt from the Roanoke Times for the year in review for the Roanoke/NRV  region.

My top events in order.

1. The April 15 tornado-
Wow, A tornado started on Timberlake/Waterlick and ended way up in Amherst County. This was the first actualy tornado in the city limits in recorded history. Hands down, the most impressive event of the year.

Click here for the NWS write up on the storm and  click here my favorite video from the Compter Exchange is the Tornado heads up Timberlake.

2.  August 2nd extreme flooding-

I recall seeing the first radar image and thinking it may get ugly and it was worse than I ever could have imagined.  A large swath of our region saw 5-8 inches of rain in 2 hours causing incredible flooding. Here are two images that show radar totals , and keep in mind radar totals are often underdone.

The red areas exceeded 6 inches of rain. It was a sharp cut off with the reporting location at the airport seeing under one inch of rain in that time period. 

3. Has to be the December snowfall.  You could argue this was the biggist region wide storm since January of 1996. Other storms had more in certain areas, but very few areas of the region had less than 10 inches. (Dec 09 and Feb 14 would be the competition. 

4. Record setting  precipitation: For the year we are over 60 inches and should see another inch or two  from rain Thursday into Friday. I will add the rainfall for Michael and Florence in this for Lynchburg specific, even thought the impact of those events, especially Michael were greater in Roanoke/ Danville.  For everyone in our area, this is the wettest year on Record. 

When does Winter Return?? 

With the big start to winter, all we need is to hit the climo numbers for each month and we finish in my stated ranges. With that, those numbers are averages and we never fit weather into nice neat boxes. 

I'm fairly confident we are heading back towards a colder patter but it will take a while to really ramp up. 

Timeline:

By Jan 5th the pattern doesn't stink for anything but rain. 

By Jan 10th, we could see more than a nuisance event. 

By Jan 20th, we may end up in a pattern that has a few threats in sight.. meaning a storm ends Monday and we are already talking about another even Saturday. 

Remember that in the low- moderate, west based El Nino winters, 86-87 and 65-66 had pretty big 1-2 week periods and 02-03 had literally a storm every Thursday from Jan 15th on until the Presidents Day sleet fest.  

Not that cold is fun without snow, but this may be a "kids stay home from school because it's too cold"  day or two during the colder stretch. If lows are in the single digits and highs are not expected past the high teens, the usually pull the plug on school. 

Of course, nothing is a lock yet and we will fine tune this as we move in closer. 

Record storm wrap up and what's next??

Wow, so what a storm.. most places saw a foot or more region wide. This is without a doubt the most significant storm this early in the season for our area.

My last posted map was..

Not a bad call, but a little low on the north side and a little low south of Danville. 

I had actually made another map and never uploaded it..

Would have been a little better in some areas but missed the 20 inche totals. 

Actual storm totals..

That northern side was way underdone by everone. This somewhat shows why I didn't really back off Friday when the data sunk south again. Northern edges are always a bear and there were some suble changes that lead to 13.5 in Charlottesville, 11.5 in Richmond and 15-20 in Lexington to Covington areas. 

I ive in Lynchburg and the official total will be 11.7, I had an even 12 or so and region wide 12-15 seems to be the common numbers for our area. 

We are off to a nice start this winter with over 50% of more of the seasonal totals already achieved. 

Outside shot at a little snow and ice late this week but we should be mild until Christmas week. That may be the transition week and then by early January we should be back into a colder pattern. 

In moderate El Ninos-- When you get one storm over 10 inches, you often get a second or even a third. 

09-10, 86-87 and 65-66 were winters that had 2 or more storms over 10 inches in most of our region. 02-03 had a plethora of storms between 3 and 6 inches. 

Meaning, enjoy the break-- we may chatting a lot as the season moves forward. 

Hope you saw my heavy snow video! 

Double digit snowfall like across much of region Starting Sunday Pre dawn.

This is the type of events that bring meteorologists, hobbyiest and casual weather  fans to the brink of frustration and sanity.   The pattern and set up looked like a snowstorm, but there were several issues that had to be resolved.  This leads to models drifting all over the place and general chaos about the forecast. It seems we have a general idea that 1 inch of liquid, falling as snow like reaches at least to hwy 460 from Blacksburg east through Appomattox. Hence, my totals are going up.

A few points:
Don't rely on your app. Most take one model and spit out what the model says. It is a huge disservice in a winter weather event 5 days out. Accept that the "chance" is there and the details will be ironed out.  It is important to be comfortable with not knowing the exact details.  To me, that's half the fun-- figuring it all out.

Every weather forecaster will be wrong on some aspects of their forecast.  We (They) often focus on their local area and then fan out to areas that they know, but not as well. I have no issues saying I am expect on Lynchburg weather. I do well other places but I know the local nuances better than likely anyone living in the area. Sadly, I have spent literally 20 years now reading computer model data about weather and storms here. The further you get away from any one person's area of local knowledge, the less accurate a forecast will be.  (AKA, people who ask me 2 hours away I can take a stab at it but it won't be great, I have not invested as much into understanding your area.

With that, I accept part of the map will be wrong somewhere.

My totals are going up. Honestly, there is some wiggle room especially in the Lynchburg area for a tad more than I show even though my totals have increased.   I am actually typing this up before the noon model data believing if anything we see another drift north on the snow totals.


I'll save you the weather jargon. This is a big wet system. There is just cold enough air in place and it will snow. A lot. Any place may end as sleet or freezing drizzle. Places in Charlotte, Pittsylvania and Henry County may mix a little more but will still get crushed.  There may be a few minutes where it snows so hard you just stop and smile and say WOW! I expect a few Facebook posts of " Heaviest snow ever". I would not be shocked to see 2 inch an hour snows at some point tomorrow in all areas.

I'll start tweeting/posting more on FB as we get close with the latest up to date information and will include computer modeled snow maps at this point forward.

Noon data looks even better, FYI 

Weekend storm potential update!

Short Summary: Models continue to show the potential for a signficant snow event Saturday into Monday.

Can you tell me how much?? It is still too soon to throw out amounts. Most model data is showing  1 to 2 inches of liquid falling out of the sky for the event, and most of that is snow. There is a risk of some mix, all regions but especially southside regions.
(Snow is usually 10 to 1 ratio, so 1 inch of precipitation is 10 inches of snow.

Can this really happen, it's awfully early in the cold season? That's a great point and it would be quiet the anomaly for event over 6 inches this early in the season. For recent history, I moved to Lynchburg in 1996 and we had 1 storm 6 inches or more this early in the year, back in 2002 (And actually an analog year this winter too)

What can go wrong and we won't get any  or much snow? 
There is quiet a bit that can go wrong.

1. Storm remains too far south and we get fringed.
2. Storm comes too far north and we flip to ice and rain.

Both are possible. The models currently oscillate between a great track for our region and a tad suppressed, especially the regions north of HWY 460.

What can go right? 
I don't post snow maps 5 -6 days out. It's poor taste and people struggle with uncertainty. Simply beause the models change doesn't mean the event isn't or is happenning.

With that, some of the crazy runs had a large swath of 20+ inches across our region. This was accomplished by the primary batch of snow targeting our region and then the upper air support taking a great track that keeps it snowing another 12 hours that racked up the 20+ inches. Not a likely outcome, but could be partially right where we get the majority of our snow Sunday then a second batch falls into Monday Morning.

When will you give us accumulation ideas? 

If the model data is consistent, I will blog up tomorrow "floors and ceilings"..

Meaning, if everything goes wrong we can expect XYZ if Everything goes right we can expect XYZ.

Next weekend's possible Snow/Ice event..

There has been chatter about this event for several days now so I figured I'd write up rather than short tweets and posts that lack detail. 


Timeframe:

Dec 8 to 10th--

Set up:

Cold air filters in as an impulse rides along the sub tropical jet. This means timing is everything. Some runs are slower with the storm and the cold air is LEAVING meaning a chance to ice/rain while others are too fast with the storm and the cold air isn't here yet, meaning rain to ice to snow.  Models that show the storm starting overnight Friday are warmer to start while others that Delay the onset to Later Sunday end as Rain.

Could this be a significant event:

Yes, but a lot can and will change in 6+ days. Cold air is often not as cold as modeled and storms like to start a little quicker. (read above, this could mean more ice/rain, less snow)

What will I see on Social Media:

Expect a strong influx of snow maps from every backyard forecaster. Take them with a grain of salt. They often include what would fall as ice/sleet and even rain as snow.  They are useless at this time, and quite honestly most of the time.

Any initial guesses on accumulations:

Anyone who says they have a strong idea on what will happen at this point is foolish. Don't trust them.  Many of you may know I am Family Counselor in real life and in both meteorology and counseling, you have to be comfortable with gray areas and uncertainty. This is the case here.

1. It's early in the seasonan and we don't know the seasonal biases on the models yet.
2. We will have to deal with always present adjustment north modesl do  as we get closer.
3. It's a long ways out so the data will have several changes and adjustments.

With that,

Places along and West of the Blue Ridge  and north of Hwy 460 have the best chance of a plowable snow, with some ice mixed in, places south of that region may still see snow but now as much and an increased risk of ice/rain. 

I will start tweeting and posting maps and thoughts will more comprehensive blogs when I need to convey more information.

Thanks for sharing with your friends and family.

Early season Warnings, Watches and Advisories.

Pretty straigh forward forecast on tap.

Today will be cloudy and chilly with a chance of some drizzle. Temps will be steady or slowly drop.  For most of the region, temps will be mid to upper 30's by late evening. Rain and sleet move in from the south after midnight. Temps fall to and then below freezing. Rain will quicly mix with and then change to sleet, and then freezing rain will mix in. By mid morning most areas should be all freezing rain, with rain southside and then end as rain.  The western regions will have some snow showers over night Thursday.

I expect most schools to be closed tomorrow.  Road won't be horrible but they pretty much close for everything. Some places like Lexington and Covington may see 3-4 inches of sleet while Roanoke, Blacksburg and Lynchburg will see closer to an inch. Southside will have a trace and some ice but not a big deal.

I've attached a map from the NWS to show current watches and advisories and my call on ice/sleet.

I expect all the Blue areas to be upgrade to warnings, basically everyone along and west of the Blue Ridge

Decent sleet accumulations north and west of Roanoke and Lynchburg. They may never get above freezing some of those regions. Anything south and east of the blue line will see some sleet and freezing rain but only trace amounts. 

FWIW, pattern looks pretty amped the week after Thanksgiving. Thanks for sharing my blog with your friends and family :)

Final Winter Outlook for Lynchburg, Roanoke, Blacksburg and Danville Areas 2018-2019

I did way too early outlook here and stated that we could see a rather cold and snowy winter. Because some other factors could change, I left it open ended where changes could be made to my initial thoughts.

So, did things change? 

Short answer is no. We still have a west based modiki El Nino that will likely be weak to moderate.  The  PDO looks to be positive and the majority of climate models show good jet stream configuration that lends to cold and stormy in our regions. 

What do the official mets say? 

The NOAA official outlook is normal temps. Many to most private sector mets are on board with a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter. (Look up Wxrisk, RaleighWx if you want two public access winter forecasts)

What is Normal for our region? 

Tempature data is accessable on the NWS Blacksburg but snowfall per region on a long term average:

Danville 10 inches. 

Lynchburg 17 inches

Roanoke 19 inches

Blackburg 22 inches. 

I am using long term because there were some data errors in the early 2000 and we also had some less snow winters in the 00-08 winters. 

Tempatures:

In general will be 2-4 degrees below normal for the winter. 

Snowfall: 

 125 to 200% of normal snowall. 

Danville 14-22 inches for the winter .

Lynchburg 20-30 inches for the winter. 

Roanoke 22-32 inches for the winter. 

Blacksburg 26-40 inches for the winter. 

These as based on regions-- you should have an idea if your place does better or worse. EG: higher elevations in Roanoke like Bent Mountain do better than the Valley Floor on Orange ave. 

Confidence Level: 

The last super big winter, 09-10 I was fully convinced we were on the way to a banner winter. There are a few subtle differences that knock my confidence down a couple pegs but still lend credence to a big winter being on tap. 

25% chance we come in under my snow totals. 

50% chance we end up in that range. 

25% we out perform what I predict happens. Right now, these numbers put us just outside a 10 winter for our region. If this pattern develops as maximizes potential, we could end up with a top 5 winter ever. 

Winter Development: 

We will actually have a pretty cold pattern starting next week and will last about 2 weeks.  There is a decent show we may see our first flakes of the winter. 

December may favor a chance or window for a snowstorm, like late month between the 20th and New Years Day. 

I favor the pattern setting up for our "heart of winter" by late January. Late January through mid February should be highest risk for cold and snow. 

March could go either way but the pattern on many models still look solid for chances for snow. 

3 comparable winters:

09-10- Big December snow storm, 2 minor events. 

January- Big storm late month then active first 2 weeks Febuary. Lynchburg had storms of 12.5, 11.2 and 8 inches. 

02-03

No BIG snow storms but numerous events of 3-6 inches from early December Forward with a near miss where 4 inches of sleet would have been 14 inches of snow in Mid February. 

86-87

New Years Day snowfall of 3-5 inches, Back to back big snowfalls on Jan 22 and 26 of 10-15 inches and then another 2 events in February 

There are other years that have similiar but not as simialir patterns that had less cold and snow. (06-07, 87-88)

Share this outlook with our friends and make sure to follow Virginiawx on facebook and twitter for important updates. 

Winter "Pre" Previews are trickling out.. If you like cold and snow you will LOVE..

Winter outlooks done by mets/ weather hobbyists are more fun than accurate at times but they do make fodder to read and post. I've noted a few notable mets with early previews and others tossing hints.

I have some early thoughts for the areas including Lynchburg, Roanoke,Danville and Blacksburg.

Most guess are predicated upon:

1. We will most likely have a low to moderate Modoki El Nino. This means the Pacific, especially in the mid pacific known as Regions 3/4 will be in an El Nino phase. 

2. The PDO should be positive- Warmer water closer to the north pacific coast from Alaska down towards the US will be warmer. 

3. The Atlantic MAY be more favorable for high lattitude blocking in the NAO and AO regions.

If you have every kept up with my blogs, those are all really good things if you like cold and snow. We always blog from the perspective that snow is a good thing,.

A modoki El nino is the closest winter  to a consistent theme.  Most end up remebered for being fairly cold and rather snowy.  Winters with similiar patterns were 86/87, 02/03 09/10 with other years having lesser levels of commonalities. 

86/87 is remember for have back to back 10-14 inch snowstorms in our area from Jan 22 to 26. Region had 30 to 60 inches of snowfall.

02-03 had MANY storms in the 3 to 6 range and a BIG storm ended up being sleet here (in the 3-6 inch range of sleet). The region had 20-50 inches of snowfall for the winter. 

09/10 had 2 storms over a foot and another get really close. Snowmaggedon dumped close to 15 to 30 inches region wide over a few days but DC north had 40 or more inches in a 10 day stretch.  Seasonal totals were 25 to 50 inches region wide. 

With that,  nothing is every a lock-- especially before we have an offical El Nino and a few other variables. 

If we get to October 15, we know the Modoki El Nino is happening and the other factors are in place, my winter outlook would be:

Temps regions wide-- Seasonal 1-3 below normal for the winter. 

Snowfall, by city. 

Danville region/southside- 10 to 20, but a lot wiggle room for more. 

Lynchburg Area 18 to 28 inches, with higher end potential. 

Roanoke Valley region- 21-31 inches, potential for more. 

Blacksburg, NRV and Highlands Region- 25-35, even more in Lake Effect areas. Also, potential for much higher totals. 

Each city's top 10 snowfall winters has 2-3 modoki winters in those totals. 

Modoki El Nino's are known for having 2 or more LARGE events of over 10 inches.. once snow gets into double digits around here, it's a memorable event. 

There is also a "hot" period from around January 20th until February 10th or so that has a historical precedent these large events with other events being more scattered thoughout the winter season. 

That time period is often easily identifed  in advance by-- Modeling showing strong blocking in the Artic/Greenland region (Negative A0/NAO cuplet) positive PNA(Ridge on the west coast) and the SOI (Southern oscillation index) dropping  7-10 days in advance. (This is tied into the sub tropical jet becoming active)If that happens we could pop 2-3 winter events in a 7-10 day period. 

A couple runs of the seasonal runs from the Canadian Model and European model showed literally perfect 500 mb maps if you wanted a cold and snow winter for December to March. These maps displayed blocking on the west coast and artic/NAO regions with clear evidence of a strong sub tropical jet. Sub tropical jet is very important for our region because we do sit far enough south that we need a pretty unusual pattern to have the northern jet suppressed for snow in our region. 

With that, we are only on August 18th and a lot can and will change.  It is completely possible that we have all the pieces I cited in perfect alignment and we end up with a rather tame winter. This outlook previews where I am likely heading, but will updated my thoughts hopefully by late October. 

In Lynchburg, 1/10 of one inch of snow in April is more rare than a 10 inch snowfall any other time of year.

I've been light on blogs this winter for many reasons. One main reason is the many storm events AFTER daylight savings time.  Model data runs late and it's just easter to tweet out thoughts then an entire blog.

I've had several messages about WILL it snow this weekend.  Model data has been all over the place and knowing the lateness of the year I was certain the risk of snow was good, but models that showed 6+ inches were easy to discount. In 120 years of record, our largest April snowfall is 3.9 inches in 1907, our last inch was in 1992 and last tenth of an inch was recent, in 2013.

Since 2009 alone, we've had 5 storms above 10 inches measure here in town. So, any accumulation Saturday (Heck and Maybe Monday) is a big deal climatology wise, but not a huge impact compared to rain. (Rain or snow on April 7th will ruin your day but travel should be FINE, except maybe if it snows hard a few hours)

So, what will happen??

Data has gone from heavy snow well into NC and us being on the north fringe, to the best snows being north of DC, to now showing the best snow maybe to our south and east. Now, models don't control weather, they display what we MAY see happen.  There are a lot of moving parts, crazy cold air pushing in fast but pretty warm air in place before the storm approaches.

Rain pushes in Friday overnight and flips to sleet and snow before ending. Some data is pushing for another enhanced wave of snow for parts of the region after the chance to ice/snow.  Another storm pushes in late Sunday that could give ANOTHER coating or more of snow to parts of our region.

Rather than clutter the blog with pics, I'm going to post various maps from resources about the storm. Remember, anything that is a .1 of an inch is a VERY rare event. (Roanoke/Blacksburg see a little more and had over an inch in 2013, Danville Likely a bit less)  Some people are bullish on an inch or two in part due to the strong push of cold air with warm temps to the south could feed bands a little better than modeled. I'm not sold either way yet, and honestly because it's april I'm not overly concerned other than the "historic" nature rather than impact on the day. Sports would be cancelled with rain. If we see snow, it may impact your day a few hours but I don't expect long term dangerous roads.

So, make sure you have me on Twitter or Facebook under LynchburgWx/VirginiaWx.

Well, That esculated quickly..snow totals going UP!!

OK, Party people in the house! Who wants more snow??
Look at the bright side-- even if we get 8 inches, You will be driving tomorrow afternoon. March Sun is burtal, same angle as Late September.

I am going to beef up totals a bit, and even say- some places, Lynchburg especially I would not be shocked if we had 2 inches total or even 8 or 9.

Why? We have a strong contrast between warm and cold. Look at these dewpoint temps 8 over southern PA and 65 in North Carolina.

In simple terms, the cold air push is a bit stronger and the low is being forced further south. This should keep us in heavier snow longer and timed well. The snow last week- if you noted we hit 4.5-5 and stopped getting deeper when the snow slowed down. The best snows should fall overnight into mid morning but snows may linger a bit longer. If we were in January, We'd be talking about MAYBE  a foot or more. 

The snow will start in impressive fashion: all the models show some type of heavy band that fires up over NW North Carolina and explodes north and northeast. Any rain will quickly change to sleet and snow, then snow. After that first crushing band of snow, we should see 5-6- more hours of moderate accumulating snow.  By midmorning, it will keep snowing but hard to make snow depths greater.

What go wrong?

1. The band misses your house. Very possible, greatest changes east regions (Danville, LYH area.

2. Storm ends not not as far south (less of a band, less moderate snow after)

3. Sleet- greatest risk eastern regions. 

4. It may "snow" 8 inches, but only accumulate 4. March-- it will lay, but not the usual ratios. 

My map has ranges. I may be underdone southside.

Lynchburg: I have this theory about West to east moving upper air lows vs Southwest to north east. We usually do better than Roanoke in East west, and they do better in Southwes to north east. Last week, Southwest to north east- we had .15 more liquid and an inch more snow. (Feb 12, March 13 Jan 10 as other examples) We will put this to the test. Model data has slowly moved  heavier snow into Lynchburg. 

Why? My theory is the low level jet comes in better with the east locations and the "bands" I often mention are more mature  on West East moving upper air lows vs SW to NE bands tend to dry slot Lynchburg in a relative sense. This is another test of that theory. 

My map: I really just forecast the Roanoke/Lynchburg DMA-- If you are just outside, I did not review your area. :)

Share me with your friends and follow me on Twitter/Facebook at VirginiaWx. Will Tweet/post current obs, radar shots and other forecasting ideas about this event. 

Get this: MAYBE more snow Saturday!! 

Details on Late Season Winter Storm for Lynchurg, Roanoke, Danville and Blacksburg Areas..

Late blogging, simply put-- I was a doubter of this storm.  In my interchat and responses, a later storm was better. First, night time was better for snow and more importantly We'd get a stronger coastal low. Well, we have a storm that is 12 hours later than thought and a decently strong coastal low.

Currently:
Winter Storm Waches Roanoke Valley south down 81.

Expect: Watches and Warnings All of 81 and likely 460 to Appomattox.

Expect: Advisories, maybe watches and warnings along southside from Martinsville to South Boston.

Amounts :
Everyone along 81, except the actual Roanoke Valley (Orange Ave, Peters Creek, ect) 4 to 8, with some 10-12 inch totals possible in Floyd, Bent Mountain, ect.

Roanoke City, valley level only east on 460 to Bedford, Forest, Lynchburg to Appomattox 3-6, possible 8 spots here and there.

Southside:  2-4, possible 6.

Small issues:
1. May start as a mix or rain, but will change to snow.
2. Start time: 10pm Sunday far west, 2 am far east.
3. End time noon Far west Monday, 3pm far east.
4. More accumulations on colder surfaces and grass.
5. Low ratio snow- normal is 11-1 or so, this will be as low as 6-1 to maybe 9-1 in mountain west.

Bust issues:

We go under totals if:
Low is weaker, further away.
Quicker mositure jump to coastal could rob central areas like Lynchburg.

We go over if:
A bit colder, a bit faster a bit stronger.

Will post map outside of this post for easy sharing :)

I love it when my readers share pics, amounts and start/stop times.

Moving forward :To quote GNR-- Where do we go now??

We are slowly shifting back towards a colder pattern. Some areas saw a dusting of snow, or even more in the higher elevations of Amherst County. 

We all know I don't blog about cold, so where are the snow chances??

1. Friday- Rain may end as snow. Places west of the Blue Ridge, especially higher elevations have a shot a some accumulations. 

2. Superbowl Sunday into Monday- Another storm approaches from the south. We have limited cold air but maybe enough. Current thoughts think the Western Areas catch up on some snowfall while the south and east regions snow to mix or mix to rain events. 

3. Feb 8-9-- maybe, but that's 10 days out. Just watching. 

After this event, we could have a brief 3-4 day warm up then we get a colder look, maybe not that different from the colder pattern we had after Christmas into the first week of January.  We had serious issues getting moisture so we missed any real shots at snow. Some signals look more wet and stormy, but I say that with caution because I remember model runs around Dec 22 showing a crazy storm pattern that never materialized. 

For the year, Danville is above normal snowfall while the rest of the region has some catching up to do.  With enough cold air lurking around, I think we have a punchers chance to reach our "normal' snowfall.. give or take a little.  We are not moving towards a "big" storm (12 plus for much of the area) but more like a shot a 1-3 moderate events. 

Someone may see half a foot of snow!

OK,  hard, low confidence event for what will be a 1-3 event most places. Someone may very easily report 5 ot 6 inches, but where?

Complicated set up. We really had 4 events from this thing.. starting yesterday over a large chunch of the nation. We will get involved in the final act of this storm system.

So, most places up in the 40's today. One last arctic shot comes through and little wave forms behind it. There is snow behind the front and it forms or reforms as it gets close to our region. Where it reforms/forms decides who gets how much snow.

I wait to blog until the Euro came out. Other than the NAM model, all data had pushed the 3 inch snow line to Lynchburg. The euro last night had 2 inches and today has backed off a bit, down to an inch. Some of that is noise, but it does match more of what the NAM displays.

So, with that-- The best guesses at this point

Roanoke, NRV
Coating to 2 inches:

NC border counties, west of Martinsville: 1-3

East of Blue Ridge including Lynchburg/Danville Think Route 29: 1-3, someone may pop 4 inches on in this area.

East of here to include South Boston, Keysville, Charlotte Court House, Appomattox Farmville, Clarksville, Bug Island: 3-6.

Risk Factors:
I'd be shocked if most places dont get at least a coating. But, when you have a band form, rising air in point A means sinking air in point B.. which means you dry out.
I'm most concerned the areas from Moneta to Bedford to near Lynchburg may get caught in a relative minimum.

The flip side is: Some data has pushed a little closer to Lynchburg where 3-4 is very doable in Lynchburg.

This could be an event where Wildwood out on 460 west near the 7/11 has a half inch and the Burger King on Campbell has 3.  Pretty tight gradient.

Share this blog and your updated on my weather page/twitter feed. Especially want to find reports from those in the highest risk areas for 5-6 inches.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday Snowstorm ideas.

First- Always remember if I saw or show what a model does, it doesn't mean it will happen. It also doesn't mean that is my forecast.  Maybe I was careless with my words about the Euro run Friday and it seemed some people may have ran with this as my forecast. I don't run with one model, I blend some model runs with added knowledge about our local climate and past events. When I make a forecast, it will be clearly marked. I share model data to raise awareness of future events.

This event: As stated, Friday looked like a nice step towards a decent event, we had a backing off  late Friday into Saturday and then last night a step back towards a decent event.

The floor of this event seems to be a coating to an inch for most places.

The ceiling seems to be a 3 to 6 inch snowfall.

Right now,  the best bet is a 1 to 3 inch snowfall for most of my readers (Blacksburg, Danville, Roanoke and Lynchburg. 

Somewhere, right now it seems to be favored east could end up more in that 3 to 6 range.

The basic set up. 

There is a clipper system that has a cold front attached to it. The front slows down and a wave develops on it, enhanced by a strong jet aloft. So, there isn't really a "strong low: or really even any low at this point. If we do get a low developing faster, like the Euro showed on Friday we could end up with a decent event again.

The Euro last night was a little more bullish on the wave..


3 AM

6 AM

9AM

12pm

This is the total precipitation from the last run of the euro. The best enhancement is just east of Lynchburg, but about .25 falls in Lynchburg.  This could move  either way before Wednesday.

That is the progression of the snow as it moves through. It strengthens over our area due to a strong jet over head. Basically, when the air aloft is moving that fast, our air rises to replace what is moving away. Lift = wrings out our moisture into cold arctic air.

Not in this mapthe strong winds from the Jet stream (Lets say from 15k to 30k feet, flow is out of the southwest.

Summary:

At this point, Most areas are on target to see a 1-3 inch snow fall.
Some places, as show on that map, could see a bit more like 3 to 6. As of now, best locations may be east of Lynchburg but that will likely change a bit as get closer.

I will tweet out updates throughout the day and likley have a blog updated in the morning. Share this write up with your friends..