Saturday, December 8, 2018

Double digit snowfall like across much of region Starting Sunday Pre dawn.

This is the type of events that bring meteorologists, hobbyiest and casual weather  fans to the brink of frustration and sanity.   The pattern and set up looked like a snowstorm, but there were several issues that had to be resolved.  This leads to models drifting all over the place and general chaos about the forecast. It seems we have a general idea that 1 inch of liquid, falling as snow like reaches at least to hwy 460 from Blacksburg east through Appomattox. Hence, my totals are going up.

A few points:
Don't rely on your app. Most take one model and spit out what the model says. It is a huge disservice in a winter weather event 5 days out. Accept that the "chance" is there and the details will be ironed out.  It is important to be comfortable with not knowing the exact details.  To me, that's half the fun-- figuring it all out.

Every weather forecaster will be wrong on some aspects of their forecast.  We (They) often focus on their local area and then fan out to areas that they know, but not as well. I have no issues saying I am expect on Lynchburg weather. I do well other places but I know the local nuances better than likely anyone living in the area. Sadly, I have spent literally 20 years now reading computer model data about weather and storms here. The further you get away from any one person's area of local knowledge, the less accurate a forecast will be.  (AKA, people who ask me 2 hours away I can take a stab at it but it won't be great, I have not invested as much into understanding your area.

With that, I accept part of the map will be wrong somewhere.

My totals are going up. Honestly, there is some wiggle room especially in the Lynchburg area for a tad more than I show even though my totals have increased.   I am actually typing this up before the noon model data believing if anything we see another drift north on the snow totals.

I'll save you the weather jargon. This is a big wet system. There is just cold enough air in place and it will snow. A lot. Any place may end as sleet or freezing drizzle. Places in Charlotte, Pittsylvania and Henry County may mix a little more but will still get crushed.  There may be a few minutes where it snows so hard you just stop and smile and say WOW! I expect a few Facebook posts of " Heaviest snow ever". I would not be shocked to see 2 inch an hour snows at some point tomorrow in all areas.

I'll start tweeting/posting more on FB as we get close with the latest up to date information and will include computer modeled snow maps at this point forward.

Noon data looks even better, FYI 

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