Short Summary: Models continue to show the potential for a signficant snow event Saturday into Monday.
Can you tell me how much?? It is still too soon to throw out amounts. Most model data is showing 1 to 2 inches of liquid falling out of the sky for the event, and most of that is snow. There is a risk of some mix, all regions but especially southside regions.
(Snow is usually 10 to 1 ratio, so 1 inch of precipitation is 10 inches of snow.
Can this really happen, it's awfully early in the cold season? That's a great point and it would be quiet the anomaly for event over 6 inches this early in the season. For recent history, I moved to Lynchburg in 1996 and we had 1 storm 6 inches or more this early in the year, back in 2002 (And actually an analog year this winter too)
What can go wrong and we won't get any or much snow?
There is quiet a bit that can go wrong.
1. Storm remains too far south and we get fringed.
2. Storm comes too far north and we flip to ice and rain.
Both are possible. The models currently oscillate between a great track for our region and a tad suppressed, especially the regions north of HWY 460.
What can go right?
I don't post snow maps 5 -6 days out. It's poor taste and people struggle with uncertainty. Simply beause the models change doesn't mean the event isn't or is happenning.
With that, some of the crazy runs had a large swath of 20+ inches across our region. This was accomplished by the primary batch of snow targeting our region and then the upper air support taking a great track that keeps it snowing another 12 hours that racked up the 20+ inches. Not a likely outcome, but could be partially right where we get the majority of our snow Sunday then a second batch falls into Monday Morning.
When will you give us accumulation ideas?
If the model data is consistent, I will blog up tomorrow "floors and ceilings"..
Meaning, if everything goes wrong we can expect XYZ if Everything goes right we can expect XYZ.