Saturday, December 1, 2018

Next weekend's possible Snow/Ice event..

There has been chatter about this event for several days now so I figured I'd write up rather than short tweets and posts that lack detail. 


Dec 8 to 10th--

Set up:

Cold air filters in as an impulse rides along the sub tropical jet. This means timing is everything. Some runs are slower with the storm and the cold air is LEAVING meaning a chance to ice/rain while others are too fast with the storm and the cold air isn't here yet, meaning rain to ice to snow.  Models that show the storm starting overnight Friday are warmer to start while others that Delay the onset to Later Sunday end as Rain.

Could this be a significant event:

Yes, but a lot can and will change in 6+ days. Cold air is often not as cold as modeled and storms like to start a little quicker. (read above, this could mean more ice/rain, less snow)

What will I see on Social Media:

Expect a strong influx of snow maps from every backyard forecaster. Take them with a grain of salt. They often include what would fall as ice/sleet and even rain as snow.  They are useless at this time, and quite honestly most of the time.

Any initial guesses on accumulations:

Anyone who says they have a strong idea on what will happen at this point is foolish. Don't trust them.  Many of you may know I am Family Counselor in real life and in both meteorology and counseling, you have to be comfortable with gray areas and uncertainty. This is the case here.

1. It's early in the seasonan and we don't know the seasonal biases on the models yet.
2. We will have to deal with always present adjustment north modesl do  as we get closer.
3. It's a long ways out so the data will have several changes and adjustments.

With that,

Places along and West of the Blue Ridge  and north of Hwy 460 have the best chance of a plowable snow, with some ice mixed in, places south of that region may still see snow but now as much and an increased risk of ice/rain. 

I will start tweeting and posting maps and thoughts will more comprehensive blogs when I need to convey more information.

Thanks for sharing with your friends and family.

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