Winter outlook 20-21

 Well, winter literally could not have gone any worse in Lynchburg with the first goose egg ever. (Some data may show otherwise, but I have searched climate data for years here, we had never had a zero. At my house in Forest we had more than a trace ( about 3/10 of an inch) but still. Horrible. 

Winter 20-21 will feature a low to moderate La Nina. Isolating those years, One year was our best winter ever (1995-1996) and recent winters of 2010-2011, 2016-17 and 2017-2018. 

2010-2011 had a snowy December, a near miss in January then winter ended (Missed a small event in March)

2016-2017 had a decent event in Early January then a miss (not near miss) early March. 

2017-2018 was a good winter South and East of Lynchburg and Roanoke and decent for those along the 460 Corridor (Blacksburg had a huge late March snow too) There was a decent event in December, especially south and east of Lynchburg, a decent snow better south and east of Lynchburg in January. February was warm but had one minor event. March was cold and snowy. 

La Nina winters tend to be drier than normal and we have to rely on the polar branch to deliver snow.  The mean storm track isn't great- to our west and north but at times leads to the 2-5 inch snow to ice events, especially Along 460 with a risk for a bigger/decent event. 

Temps- 2-3 degrees above normal for the winter, Risk for coldest month is December and first half of January. Warmest Month - February. Could have an extended winter well into march. 

Precipitation 10-20% below normal for the winter. 

Snowfall by region-

Southside including Danville-  3 to 10 inches. 

NRV including Blackburg 12-20 inches. 

Roanoke region- 10- 15 inches.

Lynchburg region 8-14 inches. 

* One big storm can ruin these small totals*

Will run an update before December 1. 

This will likely be Lynchburg's first snowless winter in recorded history- Bad data lead to a 1996-97 report of snowless winter.

George Flickinger is a really good met. I keep score on my forecast vs the locals and George is doing well vs Me. Kicking my butt this year because the 2 events I thought we'd see an inch or so were wrong by me and more correct or spot on by George.

George reported earlier in the week that 1996-1997 was a snowless winter in Lynchburg. This wasn't his fault as he pulled data from the NWS website.

Here is the full story: LYH had a small NWS office here until consolidation took place in the mid 90's. All the offices were folded into the wider regional offices that we currently have. This lead to roughly some point in 1996 until 2003 have spotty data for snowstorm reporting. Weird in that there was no official measuring spot but data has just popped in there from some of the years. They missed 1996-1997 totally.

So, for those who don't know VirginiaWx (Keith Huffman) is a LPC (Licensed Professional Counselor) who also studied meteorology on his own plus  perused a degree a degree in meteorology for a while but did not finish. Crazy in that I 100% love each field. My counseling career has focused on child and family work and while I love meteo-- snowstorms are my favorite. Any "event" is really exciting to me.

The weather passion has always been there. My dad (Who was a weather enthusiast) as a child is blinded from an explosion in Vietnam. He still loved weather and as a blind person used the old NWS phone numbers and wx radios to track storms with me as a kid and we had it down to science of what network showed their weather. (This was up in the Philly Area for those wondering)  My Dad was funny in that because he was blind he had to walk outside and put his face towards the sky to "feel" the snow on his face. We starting following weather together as early as 1978 (Blizzard of 78) and by the time I was a 4th grader- we had no rules for bedtime when snow was approaching. He'd wake me up to tell me what was on the way or I'd be up at 4 am waiting for the updated forecast that scrolled across the cable access channel.

From that, I could literally name every time it snowed from about age 8 or 9 until the mid 90's when moved to Lynchburg for graduate school. I can still name all the big storms but the random 2-3 inchers did get a little more challenging.  I could name every good storm we had in Lynchburg since 1996 with a few gaps in small events under 4 inches but could get the "vicinity" time wise. Memory is just a strength of mine and I have weird catalogs of sports data, world and us history, weather events and will remember people's life stories like it's nothing. The counseling aspect came from just getting a kick out of hearing people's stories and then figuring out their idiosyncrasies.

I did this from memory on WSET Wx page-  but here is what I recall about that winter with odd details.

Storm 1 Was December 5th. They called for rain but the temp hoovered around 32 all day. Snow broke out around 5 or so and after an inch or so where I lived on Wards Ferry Road, changed to rain. Just north and west of town had 3 to 5. There was even a difference between Wards Road and Forest because I worked the next day at Stanley Steemer  and worked in Forest where the roads where snow covered.

Storm 2 Was January 9th 1997. I remember first hearing about the potential on Tuesday January 7th as I was off work and school had not started yet. Taking a long drive up towards Natural Bridge, I had my weather radio and the storm was explained. By Wednesday there was a Winter Storm warning most of the area. Lynchburg west was 3-6 inches with 1-3 for Appomattox south and east. Snow started over night and then changed to sleet and freezing rain mid to late morning. I recall the sleet lasted longer then anticipated because about 3pm I remember seeing it bounce off the trashcans. We had about 3 inches total.

There was a trace of snow on January 11th from a strong arctic front. I saw Legends of the Fall that night at the old Dollar movies in Candlers station.

Storm 3 was February Feb 8th 1997 and was about 5 inches. It was supposed to be all snow until late evening on the 7th "May start as rain" was added. Temp was about 37 when it started as rain and changed to snow in about an hour. I actually was hoping to have off that day (Saturday) at Stanley Steemer but we worked despite the snow. We (Wayne and I ) drove out to Appomattox where it was snow then down to Red House/Brookneal. Somewhere between those 2 areas the snow changed to rain and it was a pretty stable line. We drove into the rain for a house then drove past and it changed at about the exact same house. Snow lasted till late afternoon and there was a final burst of snow  in the last hour that pushed totals to about 5 inches. I recall playing my weather radio that even cited Lynchburg, Heavy snow at 4pm.

Storm 4 was Valentines day into the 15th that was those storms that keep getting "cut back"- 4-6, then 2-4 then 1-3 before rain. I hate those storms so I don't remember the exact total but I think under an inch that started late afternoon.

George has agreed to research this data. Funny thing is I've cited these issue before and been told I was wrong by MANY mets on social media. Some have heard me and acknowledged the data gap. The same issue exists for Danville but I don't know their storm totals for their events in the gap period.

I'd be glad to help fill in the gaps but not sure if my offer would fall on deaf years. Historically, Lynchburg averages  about 17 inches of snow. Despite a decent decade for big storms, we've not had many "BIG winters" so the last 10 years average is about 16 inches last I checked.

First snowfall of year possible early Wednesday.

Decent shot at some accumulating snow Wednesday AM. 

Cold air swoops in just as our storm  arrives  hence most places will start as rain and change to snow. Higher Elevations along and west of Blue Ridge may see 2 to 5 inches,  The Roanoke Valley into Lynchburg coating to maybe 2 inches. South and East of there will end as snow..little to no accumulations. 

Timing- Higher elevations/ I 81 area change to snow between 3am and 5 am. Roanoke should be in this time frame but there should be a big difference between snow totals along Orange Avenue, downtown areas vs Cave Springs, High Elevations in Town. 

Areas east of there should change between 5 and 7 am-- including Lychburg. Moderate to heavy snow may fall for a couple hours but temps hover just above freezing. Coating to two inches. Places like Forest, Goode, Elon and Amherst may do a little better than downtown Lynchburg. 

South of this area, most place end as snow with a coating at best. 

We are about 60 hours away from this event, so expect some changes, but the data has been positive for us snow fans. The rest of you, HUSH.. It's Christmas. 

I've attached a rough copy of my first thoughts. Will update as needed. 

Possible ice to rain set up Thursday night and Friday.

A winter outlook of sorts..

VirginiaWx has been busy with his non social media life and is late on his winter outlook. My historical methods included readig a ton of outlooks by others, combing through what I like and what I don't like then really analyzing local climo records to see what happened in the analog years.

Winter outlooks are fickle in that one storm can make or break a snowfall outlook and if it's not snowing, people don't care about cold. Last winter we had the big December event. Funny in that Danville didn't have any measureable snow after that event and all stations got near normal to above and actually was about 150% of normal with the 15 inches during the big storm.

Winter 19-20:

Temps 1-2 degrees above normal, snowfall near normal. Best chances for snow/ice will be in the second half of winter.

Long term averages is 22 in Blacksburg, 19 in Roanoke, 17 in Lynchburg and 10 in Danville.

Positives: QBO trends, Ring of warmth in the pacific Northwest, neutral conditions tend to favor colder winters.  Good Eruasian Snowcover.

Negatives: Lack of strong evidence that supports a more harsh winter, some of the analog years were duds  Long pattern of persistent warms, NAO ran negative most of the summer. IN those samples only 2-13 had negative NAO winters.

Looks like we will have a cold November.  This may lead to a flip warm in December which works well with my backloaded winter.

I'll start to tweet/post ideas about events and patterns and then blog when events appear on the horion.

Major winter storm on tap starting tonight.

Cold arctic air being attact by the subtropical jet will bring us a little bit of everything.  The hope is we don't get enough freezing rain to cause major power outages. 

The skinny. 

Snow overspreads the area this evening between 9 and 12pm. There may be a period of heavy snow.

Southside- Snow Coating to 2 inches. 

Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg 2-4

Northern Amherst to Lexington to Hot Springs 3-6. 

Sleet will mix and change over by 4 am most areas, if not sooner. Snow totals include sleet. You may see 2 inches of snow then an inch of sleet. 

Mid to late morning the snow becomes freezing rain. 

Freezing rain totals will be just at the tipping point were power outages happen. 

Freezing rain totals a long 460 will bet between .2 to maybe .4 with a little less down in southside. Some of the higher elevations will see up to a half inch. 

Temps will struggle to get above freezing.. Here are two models showing the 10pm Wednesday temps and the areas nestled just along and west of the blue ridge are still right at 32. Because the rain will come in waves, the lighter periods actually are more damaging because they accrue better than heavy freezing rain. Simply put, cold are is really hard to scour out in these type set ups. 

Will update as needed. 

Would not be shocked if we went under the snow totals as at times these events like to change over sooner or would no be shocked if we saw another inch or two if the snow comes in heavier. 

Will update via post/tweets as the day unfolds but I would not expect and major changes. 

Artic air comes in Tuesday with a chance at snow..

The news/FB/Twitter has been all over the polar vortex's pending visit ( FYI, we always have a polar vortex it's just displaced south for a few days.

The extreme -20 degree weather won't reach us but we may see single digits and get a day or two below freezing for high temps. 

We should see some snow with tumbling temps when the arctic front passes through. 

These are the current odds of seeing an inch of snow from this event.. 40-50% of an inch in the Roanoke-Lynchburg region with better odds in the mountain regions. 

If we get the boring outcome, temps may be in the mid 40's Tuesday, a little light rain ends as snow and the mountains see 1-3 while other places seee a coating to 2 inches. 

Keeping it in simple terms, the upper air energy from the polar vortex may work with another piece of energy pinwheeling around may work just perfectly to give us a shot a a little more snow. 

1.  It's hard to the cold to catch the moisture without a negative tilt trough axis ( the southeastern side of the energy is out in front of the northwest side, which is a negative tilt system.  Hence, we could get a quarter inch of moisture and .20 falls as rain. 

2. Downsloping can often be an issues-- compared to in the summer where a good line of T storms cross the mounts, die down then fire up just east of the area. 

So, in summary-- I think most places see rain ending as snow. School may be a no go for a lot of our region Wednesday with a dusting of snow falling at least then temps down into the low teens. 

*If* the system  maximizes.. odds now under 25% 2 to 5 inches of powder could happen and multiple school days could be missed. 

Outside shot at another system in 7-8 days. We may get a brief warm up then a colder pattern may be locking in towards mid month. 

Look for updates on social media about the cold snap with possible snow. 

Tell me more about his cold and stormy pattern..

So, after the trainwreck of a forecast on Saturday-Sunday where a lot more ice fell than snow, we pulled a nice little inch at my place with snow still falling and one more decent round pushing into the area. For the season, at my house I have 16.8 - before this event ends which is about the season average. Depending on what the measure at WSET-- the official LYH number will be about the same. Roanoke is close to the seasonal average and Danville is above their seasonal average.

We are in a colder pattern.  My timeline stated on December 25th blog said by Jan 5, we could see something other than rain and by the 10th we may see more than a minor event. Despite the blown snow forecast, that was quite a bit of ice and snow so we did OK there.

The pattern is digging in with a displaced polar vortex, blocking over Alaska, blocking developing over the Artic region and some blocking into Greenland eventually- (small details that would bore you) but with varience it will feel like winter for the next 4 to 6 weeks. I

So, let's talk squad goals. In my prior blogs I talked about how the these west based low to moderate El Nino's like to have a harsh few weeks.

What we could see--

Outside of southside, everyone doubles their seasonal total-- so the 17 or so in LYH becomes 34 for the season. Danville easily could-- but they mix a lot more than other regions due to being further south.

A good comparable month could be February of 2015- we got cold but the storms were north then the dam broke. We had a 9 inch storm, 6 inch storm, 5 inch storm and 3 inch storm in about a 3 week period starting Presidents Day.. for 23 inches and the temps were 10 below normal. Now, I am not expecting a -10 for a month but for a 2 week period is possible.  If we get 23 inches of snow in 3 weeks we will have a top 10 winter snowfall wise in much of our region.

There are no specific threats yet..

The flash freeze-- possible that the rain ends as a little snow Sunday and we will fall in the tank cold wise. Monday would likely have been a no snow due to cold day but it is MLK day and the kids are already off.

Later next week another threat could be on the horizon but the fine details are yet to be decided.

In my mind, sometimes we ease into the deepest of the cold, once it is really cold threats slow down because of the severe cold and as the pattern starts to ease towards Late February another storm or two is possible.

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