The extreme -20 degree weather won't reach us but we may see single digits and get a day or two below freezing for high temps.
We should see some snow with tumbling temps when the arctic front passes through.
These are the current odds of seeing an inch of snow from this event.. 40-50% of an inch in the Roanoke-Lynchburg region with better odds in the mountain regions.
If we get the boring outcome, temps may be in the mid 40's Tuesday, a little light rain ends as snow and the mountains see 1-3 while other places seee a coating to 2 inches.
Keeping it in simple terms, the upper air energy from the polar vortex may work with another piece of energy pinwheeling around may work just perfectly to give us a shot a a little more snow.
1. It's hard to the cold to catch the moisture without a negative tilt trough axis ( the southeastern side of the energy is out in front of the northwest side, which is a negative tilt system. Hence, we could get a quarter inch of moisture and .20 falls as rain.
2. Downsloping can often be an issues-- compared to in the summer where a good line of T storms cross the mounts, die down then fire up just east of the area.
So, in summary-- I think most places see rain ending as snow. School may be a no go for a lot of our region Wednesday with a dusting of snow falling at least then temps down into the low teens.
*If* the system maximizes.. odds now under 25% 2 to 5 inches of powder could happen and multiple school days could be missed.
Outside shot at another system in 7-8 days. We may get a brief warm up then a colder pattern may be locking in towards mid month.
Look for updates on social media about the cold snap with possible snow.