No big changes. I'm going to hold at 3-6 for our area, with maybe a bit more down towards the VA-NC line. I think the 3 inch line makes up to the Staunton-Charlottesville area.
Most data is SLOWLY moving towards my forecast. Bottom line-- it's a strong vort on the sub tropical jet. There are some sound reasons to say why it won't trend north but they always do, even if the track is the same latitude, the precipitation spreads out more. I could bore you with model maps, but just know that every run, most data slides north 15-25 miles. By this time tomorrow we should see close to what I expect. One phantom run of the NAM will sink south, causing fear and panic.Hold it steady and we should be good.
Summary:
In VA-- south of a Covington to Charlottesville To Fredericksburg line, a general 3-6 inches. Some places in the MT Empire, along the state line and Hampton Roads area could grab a few extra inches.
Will fine tune this forecast later and add more detail.
Monday, February 23, 2015
Sunday, February 22, 2015
More snow?? (Don't shoot the messanger)
What a wintery week--
For the week, officially, 13 inches of snow fell and we had a negative departure on our temps of just under -24 degrees. Most schools close all of last week and some are already closed tomorrow.
Lynchburg set an all time record low of -11
More snow??
Maybe??
Long story short-- another arctic shot comes in tomorrow and another short wave rides out of the south west. The models want to suppress it to and keep the snow 100 miles or so to our south.
How many times have I mentioned north trends on the models??
Now, we are 4 days out and I'm not promising (or cursing) anyone with more snow-- but I struggle to think we won't at least clipped from this (1-2 inches) or maybe even a decent snow (3-6 range)
This would be Wednesday night into Thursday.
More updates later.
For the week, officially, 13 inches of snow fell and we had a negative departure on our temps of just under -24 degrees. Most schools close all of last week and some are already closed tomorrow.
Lynchburg set an all time record low of -11
More snow??
Maybe??
Long story short-- another arctic shot comes in tomorrow and another short wave rides out of the south west. The models want to suppress it to and keep the snow 100 miles or so to our south.
How many times have I mentioned north trends on the models??
Now, we are 4 days out and I'm not promising (or cursing) anyone with more snow-- but I struggle to think we won't at least clipped from this (1-2 inches) or maybe even a decent snow (3-6 range)
This would be Wednesday night into Thursday.
More updates later.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Special Morning Update- increased snow totals. - Total NOW CAST event.
Light snow is breaking out in western regions already, with flurries in Roanoke already. This is a good sign for snow lovers, and
As I said last night, the difference between 6 inches and 2-3 is only 15 miles based on model data. Slight shifts mean all the difference. Still watching this, the model trends REALLY drifted the snow back to our region. The euro, which had no snow as of noon yesterday drapes the 3 inch line into our region now..
With that, Roanoke to Lynchburg 3-6 inches
15 miles north of these LOCALS 6-10 inches.
Ice mixes late afternoon, some rain overnight.
This is a NOWCAST event-- I can't promise we won't have to massage these numbers either way. Facebook and Twitter updates all day as needed. Snow may be falling VERY soon into LYH.
This is a snow map from the RGEM model-- it's been the MOST south all along and has drifted south even more. This model says double digits in Roanoke and getting darn close to that in LYH..
Friday, February 20, 2015
It's going to be ugly-- BUT, not that ugly
It's 6 am and the current temp at LYH airport is -7. I have a resource near the airport who reported -4 on his car 2 hours ago. Ridiculous cold topping off a very wintery week.
Weekend Storm talk:
The Euro has a chance to redeem itself, BIG TIME! It's not been great all winter, Highlighted by the 12 inches that didn't fall in Philly, the 2-3 feet that didn't fall in NYC and numerous phantom snow storms in the 4-6 day range that never came to fruition. However, as all the early morning and mid day data trended towards a pretty big event, the Euro continued to hold to the idea that the best snows past well to our north and west while we get lighter stuff and that by the time significant precipitation moves in, we are in ice mode heading towards rain mode.
All of the model data has stepped in that direction. As a result, the NWS has downgraded the Watches to an advisory for places east of the Blue Ridge and warnings west of the Blue Ridge.
What do you think?
This isn't a north trend storm wise, but just where the precipitation will develop and move east. With most other guidance moving towards the Euro, I'm going to shade all data in that direction.
1-2 inches Lynchburg area. Coating to Inch Danville, and 2-4 west of the Blue Ridge with some ice one top in all regions. My concern is we even have to step back on these a bit. Now, the cold air may not break down as fast it's just that the first wave goes well north and we don't do much of anything for a while.
Will update later, but as of now I'm not too high on BIG snow totals.
Lexington north up along 64 will do pretty well snow wise, with 4-8 inches.
Weekend Storm talk:
The Euro has a chance to redeem itself, BIG TIME! It's not been great all winter, Highlighted by the 12 inches that didn't fall in Philly, the 2-3 feet that didn't fall in NYC and numerous phantom snow storms in the 4-6 day range that never came to fruition. However, as all the early morning and mid day data trended towards a pretty big event, the Euro continued to hold to the idea that the best snows past well to our north and west while we get lighter stuff and that by the time significant precipitation moves in, we are in ice mode heading towards rain mode.
All of the model data has stepped in that direction. As a result, the NWS has downgraded the Watches to an advisory for places east of the Blue Ridge and warnings west of the Blue Ridge.
What do you think?
This isn't a north trend storm wise, but just where the precipitation will develop and move east. With most other guidance moving towards the Euro, I'm going to shade all data in that direction.
1-2 inches Lynchburg area. Coating to Inch Danville, and 2-4 west of the Blue Ridge with some ice one top in all regions. My concern is we even have to step back on these a bit. Now, the cold air may not break down as fast it's just that the first wave goes well north and we don't do much of anything for a while.
Will update later, but as of now I'm not too high on BIG snow totals.
Lexington north up along 64 will do pretty well snow wise, with 4-8 inches.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Wintery Weekend on Tap..Sloppy Saturday and Soaking Sunday.
But first-- Today.
Similar to Saturday, Strong cold front approaches the air and because it's such an extreme cold blast, there is a good bit of energy tied into it so we should see a line of snow squalls rocket through with 15 to 45 minute blasts of snow. Could be a coating and in an extreme case an inch or two is possible. Timing will stink because it will be mid to late afternoon.
The Cold...
Tomorrow morning will be brutal with temps down around 5 degrees and windchills -5 to -20. UGLY and the kids won't have school. Friday AM will have CALM winds, but literal temps will be 0 to -10.
The Snow.
The details are slowly coming into focus, but this weekend won't be good. We'll have that cold air sitting in place and a very wet system approaching our area. Due to the lack of blocking (Famed -NAO) I've mentioned, this storm again will eventually be able to dislodge the cold air and we may hit for the precipitation cycle when all is said and done.
Highlights as of now--
By noon Saturday most of our area is snow.
By late afternoon most of the area is NOT snowing, but the temperature is still below freezing and stuff is falling from the sky.
By Sunday AM-- the temp is above freezing and it COULD still be raining.
Often, as you get close to these events the models catch on that it's harder to dislodge the cold air. As an example in this last storm-- sleet fell in areas where freezing rain was expected. This happened because the cold air depth was greater than modeled. (Lower levels of atmosphere)
This is NOT my prediction, but a general idea of what these events do:
Mountains 3-6 inches, ROA- LYH 2-4, Southside 1-3 inches with a good bit of ice on top.
So, we have 3-6 inches of snow left, add a few inches, add some rain and start the melting. Both Saturday and Sunday will be pretty ugly days.
Similar to Saturday, Strong cold front approaches the air and because it's such an extreme cold blast, there is a good bit of energy tied into it so we should see a line of snow squalls rocket through with 15 to 45 minute blasts of snow. Could be a coating and in an extreme case an inch or two is possible. Timing will stink because it will be mid to late afternoon.
The Cold...
Tomorrow morning will be brutal with temps down around 5 degrees and windchills -5 to -20. UGLY and the kids won't have school. Friday AM will have CALM winds, but literal temps will be 0 to -10.
The Snow.
The details are slowly coming into focus, but this weekend won't be good. We'll have that cold air sitting in place and a very wet system approaching our area. Due to the lack of blocking (Famed -NAO) I've mentioned, this storm again will eventually be able to dislodge the cold air and we may hit for the precipitation cycle when all is said and done.
Highlights as of now--
By noon Saturday most of our area is snow.
By late afternoon most of the area is NOT snowing, but the temperature is still below freezing and stuff is falling from the sky.
By Sunday AM-- the temp is above freezing and it COULD still be raining.
Often, as you get close to these events the models catch on that it's harder to dislodge the cold air. As an example in this last storm-- sleet fell in areas where freezing rain was expected. This happened because the cold air depth was greater than modeled. (Lower levels of atmosphere)
This is NOT my prediction, but a general idea of what these events do:
Mountains 3-6 inches, ROA- LYH 2-4, Southside 1-3 inches with a good bit of ice on top.
So, we have 3-6 inches of snow left, add a few inches, add some rain and start the melting. Both Saturday and Sunday will be pretty ugly days.
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
A winter storm with no big surprises..Wicked cold and Weekend Snow!
Yesterday's snowy event ended up close to what I thought. A few short term issues where I didn't think much sleet was going to make it in and we actually had a good bit of sleet after midnight. I think the official number will be close to 8 inches. I measured 8.5 inches and now have 8 but I crashed around midnight and missed the sleet show. I'm putting my total at 9 inches. There's about an in inch or so of sleet and snow on top so I'm going to put my final as 9. My 6-10 was a good call and that 8-14 zone area did well with some Mountain regions hitting over a foot, but some locals had a tad less..
Even with small short term error, I did beat the sleet drum louder than most and once again I was right. I thought it was OVER, and that snow ended earlier than thought rather than the sleet didn't make it up here.
Pretty impressive event with temps in the lower teens with snow falling. I've been down here with temps 17 or so with sleet and or snow falling, but 13 is unreal.
THE COLD!
If we don't get above freezing today, we will NOT get above freezing till this weekend. I'd say 50/50 shot we get above freezing today. Another arctic front comes tomorrow and we could get another snow shower like we did Saturday with a quick coating to a half inch.
20% shot we get below zero Wednesday AM.
50% Shot we get below zero Thursday AM
80 % shot we get below zero Friday AM. Extreme arctic high parks right over us and we could see some record setting cold of 0 to 5 BELOW zero.
For the record, I'm going conservative on the cold, and legit shot that both days are below zero and Friday is CRAZY cold.
MORE SNOW??
Over the weekend, another storm not THAT far off from this one will take place where a storm takes aim at our strong arctic air. The arctic air will be a bit more stale and I think the ice line makes it in sooner and likely ends as rain. No initial thoughts yet, but it could be advisory or warning level event.
Even with small short term error, I did beat the sleet drum louder than most and once again I was right. I thought it was OVER, and that snow ended earlier than thought rather than the sleet didn't make it up here.
Pretty impressive event with temps in the lower teens with snow falling. I've been down here with temps 17 or so with sleet and or snow falling, but 13 is unreal.
THE COLD!
If we don't get above freezing today, we will NOT get above freezing till this weekend. I'd say 50/50 shot we get above freezing today. Another arctic front comes tomorrow and we could get another snow shower like we did Saturday with a quick coating to a half inch.
20% shot we get below zero Wednesday AM.
50% Shot we get below zero Thursday AM
80 % shot we get below zero Friday AM. Extreme arctic high parks right over us and we could see some record setting cold of 0 to 5 BELOW zero.
For the record, I'm going conservative on the cold, and legit shot that both days are below zero and Friday is CRAZY cold.
MORE SNOW??
Over the weekend, another storm not THAT far off from this one will take place where a storm takes aim at our strong arctic air. The arctic air will be a bit more stale and I think the ice line makes it in sooner and likely ends as rain. No initial thoughts yet, but it could be advisory or warning level event.
Monday, February 16, 2015
Some during storm tid bits
Based on observations-- storm seems to be taking southern route. I feel a little less nervous for sleet working into Lynchburg, Danville and South Boston should mix later on as anticipated.
Based on trends now-- and model data-- 460 from Blacksburg to Richmond is the bullseye for this event. Totals of 8-14 inches will be common in this area.
I think we need 12.5 inches to get a top 10 snowfall in Lynchburg. Outside shot we get it., under 10% but still a shot.
Great ratio's have NOT developed here yet-- . As the low gets close to the mts and a low level jet interacts, we could see larger flakes and more fluff. So, the cold temps made it stick fast but we are NOT getting 15-1 ratio yet. Same report out of Roanoke.
Based on trends now-- and model data-- 460 from Blacksburg to Richmond is the bullseye for this event. Totals of 8-14 inches will be common in this area.
I think we need 12.5 inches to get a top 10 snowfall in Lynchburg. Outside shot we get it., under 10% but still a shot.
Great ratio's have NOT developed here yet-- . As the low gets close to the mts and a low level jet interacts, we could see larger flakes and more fluff. So, the cold temps made it stick fast but we are NOT getting 15-1 ratio yet. Same report out of Roanoke.
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