Monday, February 23, 2015

I'm feeling it, and models are trending my way.

No big changes. I'm going to hold at 3-6 for our area, with maybe a bit more down towards the VA-NC line. I think the 3 inch line makes up to the Staunton-Charlottesville area.

Most data is SLOWLY moving towards my forecast. Bottom line-- it's a strong vort on the sub tropical jet. There are some sound reasons to say why it won't trend north but they always do, even if the track is the same latitude, the precipitation spreads out more. I could bore you with model maps, but just know that every run, most data slides north 15-25 miles. By this time tomorrow we should see close to what I expect. One phantom run of the NAM will sink south, causing fear and panic.Hold it steady and we should be good.

Summary:

In VA-- south of a Covington to Charlottesville To Fredericksburg line, a general 3-6 inches. Some places in the MT Empire, along the state line and Hampton Roads area could grab a few extra inches.

Will fine tune this forecast later and add more detail.

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