Friday, February 20, 2015

It's going to be ugly-- BUT, not that ugly

It's 6 am and the current temp at LYH airport is -7. I have a resource near the airport who reported -4 on his car 2 hours ago. Ridiculous cold topping off a very wintery week.

Weekend Storm talk:

The Euro has a chance to redeem itself, BIG TIME! It's not been great all winter, Highlighted by the 12 inches that didn't fall in Philly, the 2-3 feet that didn't fall in NYC and numerous phantom snow storms in the 4-6 day range that never came to fruition. However, as all the early morning and mid day data trended towards a pretty big event, the Euro continued to hold to the idea that the best snows past well to our north and west while we get lighter stuff and that by the time significant precipitation moves in, we are in ice mode heading towards rain mode.

All of the model data has stepped in that direction. As a result, the NWS has downgraded the Watches to an advisory for places east of the Blue Ridge and warnings west of the Blue Ridge.

What do you think?

This isn't a north trend storm wise, but just where the precipitation will develop and move east. With most other guidance moving towards the Euro, I'm going to shade all data in that direction.

1-2 inches Lynchburg area. Coating to Inch Danville, and 2-4 west of the Blue Ridge with some ice one top in all regions. My concern is we even have to step back on these a bit. Now, the cold air may not break down as fast it's just that the first wave goes well north and we don't do much of anything for a while.

Will update later, but as of now I'm not too high on BIG snow totals.

Lexington north up along 64 will do pretty well snow wise, with 4-8 inches.

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