Despite the colder temps---
Our "ideal" snowstorm has a high pressure located over the Eastern Great lakes into Upstate New York. The clockwise flow gives us a steady supply of cold air and forces the system to our south and east. Like this last system, the storm high is exciting well in advance of the storm near Feb 2. This last storm, the high was WELL east and warm air had taken its place and we need the rapidly developing low to cool the atmosphere.
This time, as of now it appears as the high exits the storm approaches but high will be much closer and cold air more available. I'd expect a period of sleet/snow initially with a longer more extended period of freezing rain that possibly ends as rain. There is a STRONG ice signal because often the computer models run a little warm at the surface when we have this type of cold air damming. At this point, one model keeps our temps below freezing the entire event.
4 days out-- still subject to tweaks.
There could be a snowshower this morning that coats the ground quickly.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Paging Vanilla Ice??..and a couple cool photographs.
I'm home from work today with the schools being closed. (What was the deal with Bedford being 2 hours late and waiting till 8:45 to call it off??) and had some fun with my kids.
Scanned the mid day models-- the Feb 2-3 event is on track. First guess is leaning towards sleety icy mess. We've not been able to get the High Pressures in the favorable spot for our region in these big events. This is an evolving storm that is in the 5-6 day window to just keep in mind., We also may see a brief snow shower or two tomorrow AM.
First regional total map for yesterdays event- 75 miles off! My hometown of New Castle DE-- crazy day--- 4 inches of unexpected heavy snow in the morning, a driving rainstorm late afternoon. (about a half inch of rain fell) and back to heavy snow in the evening. Daily total of snow was 10.5 inches.
Scanned the mid day models-- the Feb 2-3 event is on track. First guess is leaning towards sleety icy mess. We've not been able to get the High Pressures in the favorable spot for our region in these big events. This is an evolving storm that is in the 5-6 day window to just keep in mind., We also may see a brief snow shower or two tomorrow AM.
First regional total map for yesterdays event- 75 miles off! My hometown of New Castle DE-- crazy day--- 4 inches of unexpected heavy snow in the morning, a driving rainstorm late afternoon. (about a half inch of rain fell) and back to heavy snow in the evening. Daily total of snow was 10.5 inches.
Thunder snow video-- The tremendous energy aloft supplied many instances of thundersnow-- This is a video from outside Philly. His reaction is classic-- He's clearly a snowfan.
Lastly, Cool photo from Tolland, CT. Kevin is a friend of mine that I'm in a fantasy football league. He did all this shoveling by HAND-- over 40 inches since the first of Jan. Looks like 8 foot crests?
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
On second review-- and a glimpse into the future.
Today was a fail-- I went back and checked out the obs and reality is we did get the banding set up as I expected, the temps were just a little too warm, especially the snow growth region ( Between 6-10k feet give or take). I had a mushy inch or so that weighed a ton when I had a snowball fight with my children. ( They are 6, 3 and 2-- so really it was I made them a snowball and they in turn threw it at me)
We did get some much need precipitation-- .90 from the rain/sleet and snow combined. About .40 fell as snow. Sadly, because the temp profiles were a tad warm, we had bad crystal growth and they melted fast into that mush of an inch. I use a tool called bufkit-- which does a vertical view of the clouds that tells what types of flakes are going to fall and how will they accumulate. While not an exact science, its a tool to be listened too-- the best it ran as I tracked this event was 3.8 inches. My belief that it was wrong was wrong-- while it often gave us no accumulation due to a rain snow mix, it did note the poor snow growth.
Looking in the Crystal Ball
We are going to remain cold through middle February. I've mentioned a term called a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" in the past-- while that sounds crazy a simple definition is the Stratosphere (Almost in outer space) suddenly warms and pushes the cold in the Troposphere. ( towards earth) When these happens, cold outbreaks are not far behind. We are in the midst of one and the cold comes early February.
Snow and storms?? I'm watching an event for Feb 2-3. Track and temps are not yet defined.
Assuming the first 10 days of February are cold-- often cold snaps are ended with larger storms. Feb 10-15 is a random guess. Also, cold flows to allow for "Clippers" little storms from Canada. Most dry up in the mountains or traditionally go to our north, but we could fine one that digs a little more due to large ridge on the west coast.
We did get some much need precipitation-- .90 from the rain/sleet and snow combined. About .40 fell as snow. Sadly, because the temp profiles were a tad warm, we had bad crystal growth and they melted fast into that mush of an inch. I use a tool called bufkit-- which does a vertical view of the clouds that tells what types of flakes are going to fall and how will they accumulate. While not an exact science, its a tool to be listened too-- the best it ran as I tracked this event was 3.8 inches. My belief that it was wrong was wrong-- while it often gave us no accumulation due to a rain snow mix, it did note the poor snow growth.
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| Adding the hourly report and subtracting half the hour of .20 which had some sleet too gives us .35 that fell as snow. Tack on the half inch of sleet we had and 4 inches wasn't that far away. |
We are going to remain cold through middle February. I've mentioned a term called a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" in the past-- while that sounds crazy a simple definition is the Stratosphere (Almost in outer space) suddenly warms and pushes the cold in the Troposphere. ( towards earth) When these happens, cold outbreaks are not far behind. We are in the midst of one and the cold comes early February.
Snow and storms?? I'm watching an event for Feb 2-3. Track and temps are not yet defined.
Assuming the first 10 days of February are cold-- often cold snaps are ended with larger storms. Feb 10-15 is a random guess. Also, cold flows to allow for "Clippers" little storms from Canada. Most dry up in the mountains or traditionally go to our north, but we could fine one that digs a little more due to large ridge on the west coast.
The concession speech
The bad news-- my 4-8 or 3-7 won't work in this. The good news, those who went 4-6, 3-5 won't be right either. Just cheked radar and its winding down REALLY fast.
We may see 1-2 inches, but the snow is SO wet that its melting on the bottom and compacting as fast as it lays. I would not be shocked if the official if we get another half inch or so at best. I've got about .8 of an inch on my official snow board, but its a big pile of slush.
What went wrong--
I expected the rain, some sleet-- but expected much stronger banding on the backside when we changed to snow. We had some nice snows, but even the past hour with .09 of liquid falling, the snow depth didn't really increase at my house. If we had persistent snow bands, the temp cools a little more and the snow piles up faster.
Ideally, I' thought we'd get 3-5 inches in 2-3 hours and while some of the RAIN bands had that much liquid, but not so much when we flipped to snow. Some of the modelling data stated this was possible, as the upper air support nudged a little further north each run.
Still a big ticket event from Harrisonburg to DC up 95 to Boston.
Expect a late night or early AM mid range outlook.
We may see 1-2 inches, but the snow is SO wet that its melting on the bottom and compacting as fast as it lays. I would not be shocked if the official if we get another half inch or so at best. I've got about .8 of an inch on my official snow board, but its a big pile of slush.
What went wrong--
I expected the rain, some sleet-- but expected much stronger banding on the backside when we changed to snow. We had some nice snows, but even the past hour with .09 of liquid falling, the snow depth didn't really increase at my house. If we had persistent snow bands, the temp cools a little more and the snow piles up faster.
Ideally, I' thought we'd get 3-5 inches in 2-3 hours and while some of the RAIN bands had that much liquid, but not so much when we flipped to snow. Some of the modelling data stated this was possible, as the upper air support nudged a little further north each run.
Still a big ticket event from Harrisonburg to DC up 95 to Boston.
Expect a late night or early AM mid range outlook.
Sweating bullets Watching this thing evolve **added link** 3:49--update
Radar looked very promising to me, then start to sink SE rather then move NE-- We have a few hours left of snow, but I'm not seeing the intense banding that I had hoped.
Hoping for 2 inches! (3:49)
Right on time, rain and sleet have switched to snow with NICE flakes...
How we get our 3-7 if its going to happen.
Hoping for 2 inches! (3:49)
Right on time, rain and sleet have switched to snow with NICE flakes...
How we get our 3-7 if its going to happen.
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| Snap shot of radar. |
Link to live radar-- watch this evolve.
Mid day updated **edit**
Sleet mixing in Ferrum to Roanoke to NRV, marching east. Snow not far behind.
No changes to snow totals--- Low side near 460 is 2-3 inches, if switch is early and good banding, 5,6 is possible.
Link to NWS RNK Radar--
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Reports of sleet and thunder in Grenta. Extreme vertical motion changes places to the DUE south of Lynchburg to sleet.
No changes to snow totals--- Low side near 460 is 2-3 inches, if switch is early and good banding, 5,6 is possible.
Link to NWS RNK Radar--
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Reports of sleet and thunder in Grenta. Extreme vertical motion changes places to the DUE south of Lynchburg to sleet.
The Fast and Furious- My final outlook.
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| Simulated radar view-- not often we see YELLOW returns for snowfall. |
Having a first grade daughter, I've been watching the schools close today. Likely a good call because although I expect the snow holds off to between 12 and 2 in Lynchburg, any slight change could make this very bad. I do my best to be objective and not hype-- keep track of me on twitter, facebook or this blog. If your school doesn't cancel, and you have the means, get your child home by 1 PM, get yourself off the roads. 4-5 inches isn't a huge amount of snow but 4-5 inches that falls in 2 hours is a huge deal. That's blinding snowfall rates and the roads will be a MESS. If you can't do that, plan on working late and driving home 7 ish when the road crews have had time to clear things up. I can not stress enough how rough travel will be in that 2pm to 5pm window .If you have friends and family up towards DC to Philly, they are going to get BLITZED with 6-10 inches (local maxes of 12 very possible), most falling in 4-5 hours.
Winds are a little gusty as I type-- coming out the NE at 10 w gusts to 20. Hatteras Light house has winds gusting over 50, inferring the coastal low starting to crank and when the upper air support reaches east of the Appies, this thing really blows up. I've made a new map to show better how this plays out. This is akin to tracking a severe thunderstorm.
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| final call-- Fast and Furious, best snows fall in 2-3 hours. |
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