A few thoughts..
Our official snowfall from the last event was 10.1. WSET takes those totals. I'd argue it's a inch low. They "only" said we had a half inch of sleet and it was a good 1.5 inches total from when I cleared to when it mixed to when it went back to all snow. I think some of the wrap around snow blew away and they wiped the board to late after the mix with sleet.
Kevin Myatt from the Roanoke times had a blog about big snow events since 1947..
Feb. 20, 1947: 14.5 inches
Feb. 13-14, 1960: 15.7 inches
March 2-3, 1960: 17.4 inches
Feb. 7-8, 1961: 14.2 inches
Jan. 22-23, 1966: 13.7 inches
Jan. 29-30, 1966: 12.3 inches
Dec. 25-26, 1969: 16.4 inches
Feb. 10-11, 1983: 18.6 inches
Jan. 25-26, 1987: 13.9 inches
March 12-13, 1993: 16.0 inches
Jan. 6-7, 1996: 24.9 inches
Feb. 2-3, 1996: 12.2 inches
Dec. 18-19, 2009: 17.8 inches
Feb. 12-13, 2014: 19.0 inches
Jan. 22-23, 2016: 13.0 inches
Close, but not quite
Jan. 13-14, 1968: 11.7 inches
Feb. 27-28, 1982: 11.4 inches
Jan. 22, 1987: 11.0 inches
Dec. 7, 1995: 10.2 inches
They have 19 double digit storms since 1947..
I'm going to lower the bar to 10 inches and compile the same list of LYH.
January 6-7 1996 21.1
Match 5-7 1962 17.7
Feb 11-12 1983 14.6
Jan 31-Feb 1 1948 14.5
Feb 28-March 1 1969 13.7
March 12-13 1993 13.0
Feb 13-14 1960 12.8
Dec 25-26 1969 12.7
Jan 22-23 2016 10.1
Feb 12-13 2014 10.0
Jan 30 2010 11.4
Dec 18-19 2009 12.5
March 1-2 2009 10
Feb 1-2 1996 11.2
2-27-1982 11.7
Jan 22 1987 12.2
Jan 25-26 1987 12
Feb 16-17 1987 11
March 2-3 1960 12.1
Jan 25-26 1966 10
Jan 29-30 1966 10.9
Dec 23-24 1966 10
Feb 15 1958 11.9
Lynchburg has 23 double digit storms in the same time frame. They have quite a few bigger storms, but I think we catch a few coastal bonus inches here and there and grab a few extra storms that reach double digits.
Looking at those stats:
LYH gets a double digit storm every 3 years while ROA has to wait every 4 years.
HOWEVER, storms over 15 inches happen every 10 years on average in Roanoke but every 30+ years in LYH.
LYH cashes in on some coastals that Roanoke doesn't quite make double digits, while the BIGGER more wrapped up events tend to give Roanoke higher accumulations.
We warm up after the weekend and then another BIG cold shot comes in. Looking at some patter ideas.. between February 6 and 10th may be or next storm window. From our good friend DT at Wxrisk.. some of the model data isn't that far off pattern wise from our BIG event that just passed.
That 5 days will be colder than the 5 days near our big event. At times, the pattern looking 2 weeks out has also resembled our 2 week stretch last year that had 22 inches of snow in 10 days. Point being, we don't know the fine details at all but the likelihood of cold/snow and ice are likely on the way back after a brief respite. Will start to tweet out if interesting model data comes out and will update every 2-3 days on pattern ideas until our next threat.
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