Morning update...

I actually got a good nights sleep, which is a nice change for me  when a storm approaches. I'm sure you all have seen some of the crazy outputs from the Euro, which 2 runs in a row CLOCKED us. One run had over 30 inches and one had 25 inches. Other model runs have had good snows 6-12 inches, but they mix with sleet/rain for a while.

Cracking the code on these to me comes  from understanding the physical evolution of the storm. I think I have a decent grasp on that now. The american model which has a decent snow for us 6-10 inches, but a ton of mixing. I believe this is because of the warmer look of the model, which doesn't force it to transfer to the coastal low fast enough. I think that's wrong because the short term models are just getting a view of this thing in the 70-84 hour range and they are colder. This cold air is what forces that low to redevelop quickly.

We end up with 2 waves of snow. Wave one is overnight Thursday into Friday morning. 1-3, maybe 2-4 inches falls. As it ends, we mix with some sleet. Danville and southside had more sleet, less accumulations and maybe even some rain. The lull could be as long as 4-5 hours from late morning to mid afternoon.

Coastal takes over pretty quickly and a HUGE wave comes through.. THIS is where we get the big accumulations. This snow could last until Saturday morning, with it being a 30 hour event.

Here is a SIM radar at hour 84... it's from the NAM..

Note how there is one area to our northeast and we are in a relative minimum area. At this time, 1PM Friday some light snow, sleet and freezing rain is falling. You also see that HUGE area to our southwest moving in. We've basically had a burst of warm air advection snow/sleet and coastal jump is happening now. 

That map shows a broad area of low pressure from Eastern TN down into FL.. this is what the euro shows but you're not allowed to post the pay maps I get. In the next map on the euro, there is a nice consolidated area of low pressure near Myrtle beach and heavy snow has moved back in to our region. Places that have mixed all along like Danville have changed to heavy snow.

I'm not going full Euro and predicting 24-30 inches, but I think we do very well. Even the warmer/slower transfer GFS has us getting 6-12 inches with a mix for an extended period.  All areas will see some what of a mix late morning, mid day Friday but the big show is when the coastal cranks up Friday afternoon and evening.

Let's revist floors and ceilings...

The Floor for Roanoke/Blacksburg and Lynchburg has been moved to 5 inches. I'd be shocked if we saw less than 5 inches. The ceiling 20 or more. Most likely, playing it safe is in the 10-15 inch range. Please remember that I always start low on snow totals and then go bigger. If A forecast is for 1-2 feet, and you get 12 inches, people feel let down.  So, we start small and then massage totals as needed as more information is available.

Danville/Southside. The floor is 3 inches.  I worry that Bug Island, South Hill could check in just under that total but we can adapt as we get closer. The ceiling is a foot or more. Most likely totals in the 6-12 inch range, highest Danville West to Martinsville, lower South Boston to South Hill. Again, subject to change.

Will tweet and fb updates as model runs come in. Please share with your friends.