Saturday, January 16, 2016

First Measurable snow of the season likely tomorrow.. Friday looking healthy!

Now, Measurable means more than a trace. I think most places see a coating to an inch starting near sunrise and ending early afternoon. A few lucky places, best shot from the VA/NC border to 460 could see up 2 inches.. depending on where banding sets up.


Friday's event looks better. Our problem getting snow has been that the flow is fast with many moving pieces, which prevents cold from meeting storms. (Adding many shortwaves working against each other)

It seems like the cold air SHOULD be in place as a low approaches from the west Friday...

3 options...

The Canadian model cuts the storm well to our west, we have some cold air and should get a snow to sleet and ice event, maybe even rain for  awhile. Shows big snows JUST north of here (Staunton north, Up 81 into PA)

The GFS (American model) storm cuts west but reforms south. We flirt with the rain/snow ice for a while in the event but still see a pretty big event. Not throwing out snow totals but it would be nice event.

Euro- more suppressed with the event and the storm goes out to sea we are on the northern fringe. Possible low Warning event (3-6 inch range type deal)


Looking at the pattern, I think we trend more towards what the Euro shows at this point. The GFS was a HUGE event, but in part was overdone because the cut west held on too long and pulled in a lot of warm air, making more precipitation. Still, Gulf Lows always have good potential.


Cold weather this week-- 2 days won't get above freezing.  (Monday, Tuesday) and Friday may not if the ice/snow comes early enough.

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