More detailed update.
The devil is in the details. Models that are weaker on the block over New England are further north, while those that are stronger are more south. It keeps the energy suppressed to the south.
I felt great after the 12z runs until the 18z GFS which was more north. The other models are a tad north as well, but the EC is about the same for our region and bit south overall. It has about 2 inches of liquid that falls mainly as snow.
Here's the blocking map I made earlier-- the block and 500mb low (vort) if as modeled on the EC will keep this storm in a great position for us.
Any changes to your thoughts??
1. Despite the EC and UK met staying south, the north trend concerns me. The blocking is strong--a few mets who I REALLY respect and trust are harping how strong the block is. If the block over Canada is as strong as modeled on the ECMWF, we should get a major snow event.
2. It's a lock we get SOME snow. Maybe 2 inches, maybe 12. I'll break down the chances later.
3. Banding will exist-- some winners and some losers. We've had too many events WAYY to high on total precip on the models.
4. Temps- BARELY cold enough in the Lynchburg to Roanoke area. Danville seee's a TON of rain before snow. We won't get the usual 10-11 -1 ratios. It will be more like 7-8 to 1.
Vegas odds-- Snowstorm total.
1. For Lynchburg and Roanoke
2 inches 80%
6 inches 50%
10 inches 25%
15 inches 10%
2. Martinsville-Danville.
2 inches 60%
4 inches 40%
8 inches 20%
As we get close, we will massage these numbers.
If you wanted exact ranges now-- my guess would be
Higher elevations 8-12
Roanoke to Lynchburg 6-10
Southside 2-5.
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