Wholesale changes.

I've never been a fan of the "weatherman can get it wrong" half time time and still have a job. Can an accountant balance a ledger with estimates? If the estimate was $200 and the actual was $1200-- they will be way off. Weather forecasting is the same way- we use the data we have and hope the sample is accurate. This storm had so many moving parts it has been hard to gauge each one. And, as a result we've got to make some changes.

I should have mentioned there was a shot this thing ended up a little more suppressed. I really didn't see it was SUPER viable option, but it would have been prudent. My thinking was 50 mile wiggle room either way keeps us in close to 4 inches of snow. The wiggle was more like 75-100 miles. 

Model data has trended south and radar looks CLOSE to that portrayal. The  mechanism to deliver cold air (jet stream area) and has shunted it a little faster to our south. As a result:

1. We get less moisture.

2. We needed the heavier snow to overcome the warm ground. I had no issue saying the warm ground doesn't matter as long as the snow is falling a decent clip. We should get some type of a decent burst later today, but before we may have lighter sleet/snow and rain because it's light and we can capitalize on the lower dew points to drop the temps. So, we will have more rain than I first thought or snow that just won't accumulate this afternoon. 

Adjusted thinking. May do a map by mid day, not that it helps anyone at that point. 

NRV-- 4-6 inches.

Roanoke Valley 3-5

LYH 2-4 with 2 up in Amherst and 4 closer to Altavista. 

Southside- 4-8. 

In general being Northeast is bad and being South and Southwest is good. 

I can see a scenario where the banding still sets up north. Banding is NEVER modeled well-- despite all the changes in the models. As a result, Lynchburg has close to nothing at 5pm, everyone thinks its a bust and the storm strengthens and a band dumps 5 inches in 4 hours. This will have to be monitored. I don't want to sound like Princess Leah, but this could be our ONLY HOPE to get 5 inches in LYH. 

We are in nowcast mode-- Model data helps, but radar, water vapor matter more. Feel free to friend me on facebook or subscribe Keith David Huffman,  twitter @ VirginiaWx for current updates.

A short term model called the HRR keeps us dry all day, but creates a decent band LATER AFTERNOON-- this would be impressive for a few hours.