I'm going to throw a quick update now and then see what I can do after the late evening data. Closing out a market at work, so I may just need to sleep. (Unlikely, but sounds noble)
In short, MOST of the model data came in with a more southerly track, with colder temps. Now, this isn't random and there are sound reasons why this could be closer to final track. Basically, southern piece of energy coming out of Mexico is a tad slow, the northern energy races ahead and JUST in time cools the atmosphere. With the northern jet, we have stronger confluence and that doesn't allow the storm to gain latitude and the flow is fast so it rockets off to the east north east.
I'll put out an outlook map later this evening-- as of now, I think the best snows are Staunton, Waynesboro and Harrisonburg due best. However, with the more south trend, the NRV could be in play due to their elevation. Elevation will make a difference. My theory is the change over may be pretty fast getting from lets say Blackburg to Lynchburg-- like within an hour, but Blacksburg is accumulation 3 hours earlier because they don't have to cool the last 1200 feet.-- so there is a slushy coating in Lynchburg and Blacksburg has 2-3 inches.
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