A huge step backwards---

All model data too a huge step backwards if you want a big snow. Step one seems to be a lock-- our clipper blows up. Our second short wave as shown is being destroyed by a piece of northern stream energy.

Vort issues abound.

The above map is from the NCEP site from the GFS model. On this model, the vort is already weaker as it leaves the SW region of our nation. The ECMWF has a much stronger vort in the area circled and labeled. This destroys our upper air support and we get a minimal snow.

All three models showed a coating to 2 inch snow storm.

Is this the final outcome??

No-- not at all. It is very common for model data to be all over the place 5 days out. Especially with regards to the northern piece of energy which is currently in a very poor area to gather data about it. 

When will you have a better view on the northern vort issue?

Educated guess says hopefully by noon tomorrow, by perhaps as late as the midnight runs on Monday night. For a good storm we want that southern vort strong, the northern vort to be minor or non existent *further north* and we'd be in business for a good snowfall. 

Valentines week is going to be nice and warm-- several days up in the 50's and dare I say 60's. 

2 quick notes

1. The blog was adjusted to better mobile viewing. It worked on my phone, but a tried another's phone and got the FULL blog. If you have a second check on your smart phone and drop me a message via comments here or on facebook. 

2. I've purchased the domain name www.VirginiaWX.com with my google adsense money and have made that click right into the blog. My goal is to build that into an actual site and have it running  by next winter. I will keep up on the blog over the summer, but with maybe not quite as much vigor. I'm sure you would all be thrilled to hear reports of another day of 94 degree heat. 

Kick a buck---

The Noon model data has just completed and as the bidding passes my spot, I'm throwing in another buck so the pot is a little richer now.

Quick run down by model

Recall- We need the Monday storm to BLOW UP forcing the cold air deep to our south AND the upper air energy (Vortmax) to not shear out or just not be consolidated.

1. GFS (American Model)-- Blows up the clipper and pushes in cold air. However, it struggles to hold the upper air energy and we get a minor storm. As shown, its a 1-3 inch snowfall Thursday.

2. GGEM (Canadian) Blows up the clipper, holds the upper air energy a little better and its maybe a 2-4 inch snowfall.

3. ECMWF (European) Blows up the clipper as needed and keeps the vortmax VERY strong. as a result, its a BLOCKBUSTER snowstorm. Literally, 12-15 inches region wide-- maybe more because the air is cold and the ratio of snow to liquid could be more like 15-1.

What now??


Waiting game is on. Almost all data shows the clipper blows up. At this point, its just making sure its at an ideal location and drives the cold air well to our south. Second, the data is all over the place with the strength of the vortmax. Despite some data suggesting it could be a bigger storm to our south and east, my greatest fear is always it trending north. Despite the models being very cold, a subtle 100 miles north track in the vortmax leaves us open for a mix to ice or even rain. With this being a fast moving volatile pattern, anything is possible. Even compared to the midnight data, the ECMWF was several degrees warmer with the antecedent cold shot. Comparing to the great MW blizzard from this past week-- St. Louis was at one point was forecasted to get a dumping of ice with a foot of snow on top. The low drifted MUCH further west then modeled an ended up with less then an inch of total precipitation when they were modeled to get over 2 inches.

When will we know??

Like most events, nothing will be set in stone until a day out or less. Both the GFS and ECMWF computer models have biases that are at play here. The GFS tends to crush storms at this range while the ECMWF has consistently OVER done coastal lows at this point in the game. The GFS issue holds water because of that HUGE low that develops. The EC isn't really a over blowing a coastal low, its just an amped up vortmax.

My gut call as of now-- IF we see the big storm idea come to fruition, we will have to battle the dreaded rain/snow/ice line across much of region, including Lynchburg and Roanoke.

Let's give him something to blog about---How about snow??

I had not quite yet put away my shovel and sled, but was accepting the fact that winter's end was coming near. While I do like snow and cold, I also enjoy lower heating bills. I sent in my payment this week--so please click away on those GOOGLE ads to offset my heating costs. :)

My expectations of the this week was the storm tomorrow was MOSTLY rain, a second storm slides to our north and cold air builds in. As the cold exits, a MAJOR low develops and goes WELL to our west. Not a Chicago blizzard like this past Tuesday, but an Ohio snowfall into the upstate of NY.

The models data has shifted---it takes the early week storm a clipper and BLOWS it up to a sub 950 storm. Some data makes the central lowest pressure at 944 MB which is a CAT 4 Hurricane strength. This pushes cold air well to our south and sets the stage for a possible snowfall.

Rare to see a 944 low up there. 

I still expect a break or even end to the cold shortly after Valentines Day--BUT, this is a legit "Threat" as of now next Thursday. 

1. We need the clipper to blow up as modeled. This is rare, but did happen something like this right before the Feb 5-6 snow event here. (6-10 region wide here, 2-3 feet DC to Philly)

2. Once we know the low blows up-- which will be established by Sunday allowing the cold air to lock into place, we need the energy aloft to take a favorable track and be strong enough to make a decent storm. 

If BOTH of these things happen, we could get our best snowfall of the winter. 

Couple of storms to get through-- and then winter takes a break,

There is a freezing rain advisory tonight-- but that is for the higher elevation. I expect MAYBE a little sleet where  most folks live, and really this is just a rain event.

We've got one last cold blast to get through with storm to go with it. While this is an amped up pattern, we lack the high lattitude blocking to keep the cold air locked in place. This will be another major blizzard somewhere and I imagine it will be parts of the Appalachia , maybe into the Ohio Valley, and inland New England. If this storm wraps up as it could, we will get 2-3 bitter cold days.

The good news-- after this, the pattern does seem to drastically shift and the mean trough will be on the west coast and ridging along the east coast. So, many signs point towards a much more mild pattern starting mid month. We will keep a close watch on this storm for next week, but I see very little to support this being a major event for us.

Winter to take break...??

My ice event did not come to fruition, but that was a good thing. That small amount of ice can take a few people off guard--but better to err on the safe side.

If you are tired of the cold and snow-- you may be happy with this paragraph. In an La Nina winter- the mean troff (Storm track) usually shifts westward as the winter progressive. We've slowly watched that unfold-- as we were bitterly cold in December, coder then normal in January and looking at Feb-- even if we get the " Sudden Stratospheric Warming" event I talked about before, if the mean troff is to our west and we have no blocking to our east, our cold shots will be very short lived. Some data is slowly pointing in that direction. If this happens, despite the colder then normal January, my winter forecast won't look too bad. (Troff was well off shore in December, slightly west in January and well west in February)

February of 89 was a La Nina winter and had the mean troff sitting to our west. We did have a couple of threats for snow later in that month and a couple inches did accumulate but the big snows ended up in the Hampton Roads area ( Two big storms a few days apart with 70 degree weather in between them--February 18th and 24th, 2 and three inches fell respectively here in Lynchburg while 10+ across the Hampton Roads area from each event) This matches will with both a La Nina pattern with a west troff-- as cold air moves through the mean troff is briefly off shore and the best storms go to our east. 

 We can use any rain-- so hopefully we get the half inch possible tonight. Another storm approaches Saturday and another decent rain is possible. There isn't much fun blogging about rain but we certainly need it and for those of us who enjoy local produce each summer, we must have it. 

Closing thoughts-- I wish I could dig up the chart, but someone made a list of the major reporting stations in VA for winter snowfall totals and Lynchburg is DEAD LAST with a little over 8 inches. Norfolk is still in the lead with the 14 inch storm on Boxing Day event and a seasonal total of 18 inches.

Major Midwest Blizzard on tap-- with a little ice POSSIBLE here.

NAM Snow output- St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo,Boston-- WOW

A simply huge storm is about to unfold that will bring a large swath of snow from Oklahoma to Maine. This map is somewhat over done with the large 20+ inches, but its get the point across that this is a HUGE storm. Just SE of that heavy snow band will be large amounts of sleet and freezing rain. Some of the freezing rain amounts over parts of MO, IN, IL and OH will be crippling.

For our region, the MAIN thrust of rain will be liquid-- however. The data has suggest overnight Monday into Tuesday some light rain and drizzle falls with temps in the 29 to 31 range. These events can be the worst because there won't be much media talk and that THINEST of glaze can be missed before several accidents across the region.

December 7, 2007 we had an event that dropped .01 of freezing drizzle between 6am and 8 am. It was missed by the models and was a traffic nightmare. Oddly, I went to bed around 1 am thinking-- if this doesn't dry up we are going to have a rough AM. And, at some point around 7:30 or so they flashed on the TV-- police recommend every stay off the road until temps warm up. Our high in the afternoon was 41- but temps were below freezing until 11 AM.

Most model data shows between .03 and .05 that starts after midnight tomorrow night and is gone before 10 am. Temps get into the mid 40's or warmer Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday will be crazy warm-- 60 is very possible and will cool back to the 40's for highs on Thursday. Another storm approaches Saturday, and taking the models at face value, will be warm for region for snow or ice.

Ice Updated-- still minor

Late Monday into Early Tuesday there will be a minor ice threat. As a low pressure develops over East Texas the warm air advection will zoom over the cold dome at the surface and bring us a shot at a little freezing drizzle.
Precipt amounts will be less then .05 of an inch, so the icing will be minor but some traffic concerns early Tuesday. As the low cranks up the bulk of storm is rain here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Cold air filters in after this event and we are back to seasonal levels. Some most model data suggest that a trailing piece of energy spins a storm up heading into next weekend and we have a threat for some rain or snow. Track at this time is favorable for snow-- temps are the issue.