My expectations of the this week was the storm tomorrow was MOSTLY rain, a second storm slides to our north and cold air builds in. As the cold exits, a MAJOR low develops and goes WELL to our west. Not a Chicago blizzard like this past Tuesday, but an Ohio snowfall into the upstate of NY.
The models data has shifted---it takes the early week storm a clipper and BLOWS it up to a sub 950 storm. Some data makes the central lowest pressure at 944 MB which is a CAT 4 Hurricane strength. This pushes cold air well to our south and sets the stage for a possible snowfall.
|Rare to see a 944 low up there.|
I still expect a break or even end to the cold shortly after Valentines Day--BUT, this is a legit "Threat" as of now next Thursday.
1. We need the clipper to blow up as modeled. This is rare, but did happen something like this right before the Feb 5-6 snow event here. (6-10 region wide here, 2-3 feet DC to Philly)
2. Once we know the low blows up-- which will be established by Sunday allowing the cold air to lock into place, we need the energy aloft to take a favorable track and be strong enough to make a decent storm.
If BOTH of these things happen, we could get our best snowfall of the winter.