Will we Cash Out or Crap Out?

 In the digital world of weather, the 0Z (Midnight run) of the Euro had 3 digital storms starting with Friday that brought us all snow each storm. The end total was 10 to 18 inches total from the three storms region wide. 

Will We Crash in or Crap out? The noon run of the same model lost all 3 storms, for those wondering. 

Specific to Friday's event. Those who forecast this right will have a blend of both luck, skill and climo knowledge. 

Summary- A low pressure and associate upper air low will approach the area. Some unusual factors make it a challenge to see how far north this storm will make it. Further, this may be a rare case where the upper air low impacts our area. Last big time I think this happened, Roanoke and Blackburg had 10 inches of snow in 3 hours during February of 2014 (after 10 had already fallen)

I am against showing the digital snow maps but I will show a few to show the challenge. Making it worse, the models often shift back and forth on what the outcome will be. 

Mid afternoon run of 12k NAM, Big snows southside, misses most of Roanoke to Lynchburg. 

Noon run of American Model that show now snow within 60 miles of Lynchburg. 

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3k NAM run mid afternoon, big snows into LYH, still mostly a non event in Roanoke. 

We are 48 hours from the event where clarity is not event close and many outcomes are possible. With that, it's not called forecasting for nothing. 

My initial thoughts for this first event-

Snow breaks out towards Morning southside and over spreads the entire region. This first push first guess is 2-4 inches from about the NRV South East towards South Boston. Further SW VA may do better here ( 3 to 6) Along 460 From Roanoke to Lynchburg this round will bring 1-3 inches. 

From this point, the forecast is tricky. The upper air support should then create a second round of snow. This is more tricky because it should be convective (think thunderstorm like, hit and miss) You get in these bands, you could get another 3-5, if you just get brushed another inch or two. Some places may be done after the initial push of snow. Very challenging. 

So, my current "First Guess"

  NRV down to Southside- 2-4 inches then we wait on the bonus snow.  If you get in the good bonus snow another 3-5 is possible. everyone won't get this. 

Roanoke to Lynchburg 1-3 initial push. 3-5 bonus snow possible too. Same disclaimer for not everyone will get it.

Everyone won't get it because often these bands set up and just don't really move. Then then weaken in that spot and form elsewhere. 

This is not a final call and this will change before the event.  Some timing issues where some models really hold off accumulating snows until late afternoon and other have snow on the ground in Lynchburg by 7 am. 

Other events worth watching early next week and then NEXT weekend.  Expect updates via Twitter and FB. 

The answer may be Friday/ Saturday to the question I get asked the most.

There is an event I've been tracking a few days that looks to take place in the Friday to Saturday time frame. We have the "Blocking" pattern I discussed but not a ton of cold air. A few models have hinted at the block forcing a system to our south with just enough cold air for snow in parts of the region. In the past couple runs of the models, there seems to be growing concensus in the models that the storm will both travel to our south and have "just enough cold air" in place. 

 Points to ponder- 

1. Things change as we get close. This is an outlook 5 days away. 

 2. Timing is not locked in as some models show early Friday start and others early Saturday. 

 3. Models have looked colder, not super cold as we get close. We obviously need the cold. Some places east and south may not have enough cold air or depending on timing, places may start as snow and end as rain. 

 4. This event that may stay to our south with the upper air puts is in "cold conveyer belt snows" where the upper air feature provides "banded" snow. Heavy in those bands and sad for those outside. Makes for a wide range of totals. 

 5. Would not throw out any totals but potential is there for an "advisory type event" which is an event of basically under 4 inches and yes, there is potential for a "Warning" event which is more than 4 inches.

 I'll tweet or FB updates more often if warranted and then throw another blog out by sometime Tuesday. We should have a pretty good handle on if the storm will come to fruition in some shape by that time.

This maps shows our blocking (red- higher heights and blue lower heights. Should help keep this storm south.

This is our upper air low moving due east from TN into NC. That's a great track for our region. As always, models like to push the precipitation NW as the event gets close, but data is a bit suppressed for our region, which is a good thing 5 days away.

The question I get all the time-- When is it going to snow?

 Christmas Snow was nice for people west of the Blue Ridge, but accumulating snows never made it into Lynchburg. I wasn't shocked, but it was definitely a snow win for the Roanoke Valley. 

This pattern is weird in that November was so warm AND the Jet coming off the Pacific is so strong, we can't build any cold air in North America. We have good blocking  in the NAO and AO regions, but when those areas are toasty warm,  it doesn't matter. This active storm pattern with cold air would have a few snow to ice to rain events, but the lack of cold air gave us a marginal ice event and that's it for winter events. . 

Moving forward, a few things will happen:

1. Seasonal temps just get lower. I mean, It's January. Easier to snow with our lowest temps of the year because it doesn't have to be a huge anomalous cold. 

2. The blocking over Greenland (Good if you like snow) will drift even further west towards  Baffin Island, Canada. This aides in our cold air regions. It doesn't allow for Pacific air to invade Canada. They cool down, even if about normal and it is forced south. 

3. We have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming starting early January. The simple version is winds reverse way up in the stratophere that helps weaken the Polar Vortex. This sounds counter intuitive, but a strong polar vortex is bad for us and weak is better because it pushes cold air away from the artic regions and down to the mid latitudes where we reside. 

These both pre and post conditions to the Warming are likely connected by various factors and it should help shape a good pattern from January 15th into parts of February if you are a fan of cold and snow. We have no specific threats at this time, but my hunch says by mid January threats for snow and ice may be on tap. The last time we had something like this happen was 2018 and the pattern held up about 6 weeks with 3-4 winter events. (The last was snow on April 9th in Lynchburg and the Timberlake Tornado happened 5 days later)

Summary: Colder air should be in place by mid month with some specific storm threats likely at that time. Pattern may last 4-6 weeks of colder/ threats for winter precipitation. 

Red to Brown is higher heights over Greenland into NE Canada (Baffin Island) and Green and Blue over Aleutian Islands (Lower Heights, vortex) is a good look for cold and snow. 

Wednesday December 16th is worth watching for snow/ice threat.

After literally no real threats last winter, December 16th maybe worth watching for a winter event. 

Sunday night into Monday brings in MORE rain, adding to our record setting year of precipitation in Lynchburg. At this point the plot thickens..

What we know-

1. Cold air is building in from the North and west Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Storm associated with a short wave develops in the mid south. 

What we don't know-

1. How much cold air will be in place. This matters greatly for obvious reasons. 

2. Storm track- Some data shows this as a "Miller B" where a low forms and moves to our west while a secondary low forms off the Atlantic cost somewhere.  With our proximity to the mountains, often this means we warm at the mid levels but not at the surface.  Snow usually changes to ice in these set ups, faster the further south and east you are located from Lynchburg. 

When will we know?

Wednesday is 5 days away so generally we know there should be a storm that day and enough cold air should be in place for for some winter precipitation.  General ideas of what to expect should be in place by Sunday. 

Highest risk for snowfall will be places along I-18 from the Mt Empire, through the NRV, Roanoke and heading towards Harrisonburg. A change or mix to ice and even rain very much in play here too. 

Next risk Level would be Smith Mountain lake towards Lynchburg with Snow and ice combination likely that could end as rain. 

Lastly, Southside including Martinsville, Danville and South Boston would have the lowest risk but snow/ice and rain are likely. Still may end up with a significant winter event. 

General rules I follow about these type events. 

1. We tend to warm at the mid levels faster than modeled- meaning if a mix or change may happen, I usually speed it up on my forecast.

2. Surface temps like to be colder than modeled in this set up. Cold air damming (Surface high to our north that forces cold air down the east side of the mountains) tends to be stronger than modeled. A change to ice doesn't mean warmer at the surface. I usually lean a few degrees colder at the surface. 

Will send updates as needed as more data becomes available. It seems like there could be a decent amount of moisture associated with this event-  from .75 to maybe 1.25 inches of liquid equivalent, meaning whatever falls (Snow, Sleet, Freezing rain and or rain) will be impactful to your work week starting late Tuesday and into Wednesday and Thursday. 

Winter outlook 20-21

 Well, winter literally could not have gone any worse in Lynchburg with the first goose egg ever. (Some data may show otherwise, but I have searched climate data for years here, we had never had a zero. At my house in Forest we had more than a trace ( about 3/10 of an inch) but still. Horrible. 

Winter 20-21 will feature a low to moderate La Nina. Isolating those years, One year was our best winter ever (1995-1996) and recent winters of 2010-2011, 2016-17 and 2017-2018. 

2010-2011 had a snowy December, a near miss in January then winter ended (Missed a small event in March)

2016-2017 had a decent event in Early January then a miss (not near miss) early March. 

2017-2018 was a good winter South and East of Lynchburg and Roanoke and decent for those along the 460 Corridor (Blacksburg had a huge late March snow too) There was a decent event in December, especially south and east of Lynchburg, a decent snow better south and east of Lynchburg in January. February was warm but had one minor event. March was cold and snowy. 

La Nina winters tend to be drier than normal and we have to rely on the polar branch to deliver snow.  The mean storm track isn't great- to our west and north but at times leads to the 2-5 inch snow to ice events, especially Along 460 with a risk for a bigger/decent event. 

Temps- 2-3 degrees above normal for the winter, Risk for coldest month is December and first half of January. Warmest Month - February. Could have an extended winter well into march. 

Precipitation 10-20% below normal for the winter. 

Snowfall by region-

Southside including Danville-  3 to 10 inches. 

NRV including Blackburg 12-20 inches. 

Roanoke region- 10- 15 inches.

Lynchburg region 8-14 inches. 

* One big storm can ruin these small totals*

Will run an update before December 1. 

This will likely be Lynchburg's first snowless winter in recorded history- Bad data lead to a 1996-97 report of snowless winter.

George Flickinger is a really good met. I keep score on my forecast vs the locals and George is doing well vs Me. Kicking my butt this year because the 2 events I thought we'd see an inch or so were wrong by me and more correct or spot on by George.

George reported earlier in the week that 1996-1997 was a snowless winter in Lynchburg. This wasn't his fault as he pulled data from the NWS website.

Here is the full story: LYH had a small NWS office here until consolidation took place in the mid 90's. All the offices were folded into the wider regional offices that we currently have. This lead to roughly some point in 1996 until 2003 have spotty data for snowstorm reporting. Weird in that there was no official measuring spot but data has just popped in there from some of the years. They missed 1996-1997 totally.

So, for those who don't know VirginiaWx (Keith Huffman) is a LPC (Licensed Professional Counselor) who also studied meteorology on his own plus  perused a degree a degree in meteorology for a while but did not finish. Crazy in that I 100% love each field. My counseling career has focused on child and family work and while I love meteo-- snowstorms are my favorite. Any "event" is really exciting to me.

The weather passion has always been there. My dad (Who was a weather enthusiast) as a child is blinded from an explosion in Vietnam. He still loved weather and as a blind person used the old NWS phone numbers and wx radios to track storms with me as a kid and we had it down to science of what network showed their weather. (This was up in the Philly Area for those wondering)  My Dad was funny in that because he was blind he had to walk outside and put his face towards the sky to "feel" the snow on his face. We starting following weather together as early as 1978 (Blizzard of 78) and by the time I was a 4th grader- we had no rules for bedtime when snow was approaching. He'd wake me up to tell me what was on the way or I'd be up at 4 am waiting for the updated forecast that scrolled across the cable access channel.

From that, I could literally name every time it snowed from about age 8 or 9 until the mid 90's when moved to Lynchburg for graduate school. I can still name all the big storms but the random 2-3 inchers did get a little more challenging.  I could name every good storm we had in Lynchburg since 1996 with a few gaps in small events under 4 inches but could get the "vicinity" time wise. Memory is just a strength of mine and I have weird catalogs of sports data, world and us history, weather events and will remember people's life stories like it's nothing. The counseling aspect came from just getting a kick out of hearing people's stories and then figuring out their idiosyncrasies.

I did this from memory on WSET Wx page-  but here is what I recall about that winter with odd details.

Storm 1 Was December 5th. They called for rain but the temp hoovered around 32 all day. Snow broke out around 5 or so and after an inch or so where I lived on Wards Ferry Road, changed to rain. Just north and west of town had 3 to 5. There was even a difference between Wards Road and Forest because I worked the next day at Stanley Steemer  and worked in Forest where the roads where snow covered.

Storm 2 Was January 9th 1997. I remember first hearing about the potential on Tuesday January 7th as I was off work and school had not started yet. Taking a long drive up towards Natural Bridge, I had my weather radio and the storm was explained. By Wednesday there was a Winter Storm warning most of the area. Lynchburg west was 3-6 inches with 1-3 for Appomattox south and east. Snow started over night and then changed to sleet and freezing rain mid to late morning. I recall the sleet lasted longer then anticipated because about 3pm I remember seeing it bounce off the trashcans. We had about 3 inches total.

There was a trace of snow on January 11th from a strong arctic front. I saw Legends of the Fall that night at the old Dollar movies in Candlers station.

Storm 3 was February Feb 8th 1997 and was about 5 inches. It was supposed to be all snow until late evening on the 7th "May start as rain" was added. Temp was about 37 when it started as rain and changed to snow in about an hour. I actually was hoping to have off that day (Saturday) at Stanley Steemer but we worked despite the snow. We (Wayne and I ) drove out to Appomattox where it was snow then down to Red House/Brookneal. Somewhere between those 2 areas the snow changed to rain and it was a pretty stable line. We drove into the rain for a house then drove past and it changed at about the exact same house. Snow lasted till late afternoon and there was a final burst of snow  in the last hour that pushed totals to about 5 inches. I recall playing my weather radio that even cited Lynchburg, Heavy snow at 4pm.

Storm 4 was Valentines day into the 15th that was those storms that keep getting "cut back"- 4-6, then 2-4 then 1-3 before rain. I hate those storms so I don't remember the exact total but I think under an inch that started late afternoon.

George has agreed to research this data. Funny thing is I've cited these issue before and been told I was wrong by MANY mets on social media. Some have heard me and acknowledged the data gap. The same issue exists for Danville but I don't know their storm totals for their events in the gap period.

I'd be glad to help fill in the gaps but not sure if my offer would fall on deaf years. Historically, Lynchburg averages  about 17 inches of snow. Despite a decent decade for big storms, we've not had many "BIG winters" so the last 10 years average is about 16 inches last I checked.

First snowfall of year possible early Wednesday.

Decent shot at some accumulating snow Wednesday AM. 

Cold air swoops in just as our storm  arrives  hence most places will start as rain and change to snow. Higher Elevations along and west of Blue Ridge may see 2 to 5 inches,  The Roanoke Valley into Lynchburg coating to maybe 2 inches. South and East of there will end as snow..little to no accumulations. 

Timing- Higher elevations/ I 81 area change to snow between 3am and 5 am. Roanoke should be in this time frame but there should be a big difference between snow totals along Orange Avenue, downtown areas vs Cave Springs, High Elevations in Town. 

Areas east of there should change between 5 and 7 am-- including Lychburg. Moderate to heavy snow may fall for a couple hours but temps hover just above freezing. Coating to two inches. Places like Forest, Goode, Elon and Amherst may do a little better than downtown Lynchburg. 

South of this area, most place end as snow with a coating at best. 

We are about 60 hours away from this event, so expect some changes, but the data has been positive for us snow fans. The rest of you, HUSH.. It's Christmas. 

I've attached a rough copy of my first thoughts. Will update as needed. 

Possible ice to rain set up Thursday night and Friday.