Tough times, tough calls

Fun storm to track and just epic model battles with models trading places over and over again.

1. Well established south trend was CLEAR yesterday. Often, when things trend north we assume the trends STOPS and it simply doesn't.  I've seen storms end up 100 miles north of modeled AS the storm unfolds.

2. South trend with the storm does NOT always equal colder air being locked in places. So, while we've trended wetter, doesn't mean more snow-- could be more sleet.

3. Speed. Heaviest stuff is out of here by 1pm, if not sooner. Could be 11. So, again-- we need the flip early. Afternoon snow will be light and fluffy stuff with temps around 15-20

4. Even if we flip, clould physics may not make it "fluffly snow" AKA snow grains and stuff that doesn't build up well.


I had floated a MAP on FB-- didn't make it "official"-- Made a little revision of upping DC to 8-14 and moving LYH to 4-8.

Sleet will be an issue. Marked in Yellow on the map.. IF we can get rid of sleet sooner,could see 10 inches in LYH. I'd say that's a 25% shot we see 10 inches. I'd say 6 inches in LYH seems like a safe call.

Temps in TEENS by mid morning VERY possible.

Sleet fest for 460-- :)

The bottom is about to fall out.

Amazing event on the way with a SHOCKING drop in temps with significant sleet and snow falling tomorrow.

Well, my lead time to the public has been better than most vendors here including the NWS and the BIG 3 TV stations (NBC and FOX are the same guys) With that, I'm not sure why because the NWS now says 3-5 inches. A specialized group of forecasters called the WPC had this even on radar Friday when the NWS had a high of 48 with rain Monday. My point is-- this is NOT a shocking change. The potential was always there and it deserved mentioning sooner.The "polar vortex" positioning has driven this event and the potential to drive BITTER cold air in fast has been on the table for a while.

 I'm not trying to be negative or put anyone down, just stating that the public should have been made aware. Here in Lynchburg we are now under a WinterStorm Warning-- after NOT having a Watch issued yesterday afternoon (which I was convinced we would have)


Incredible event on the way. 55 at Midnight, 20 with snow at noon

** If my 3-6 totals don't verify, It will be because of sleet**

 Sleet isn't snow, but 2 inches of sleet is like cleaning up 5-6 inches of snow.

This is a vertical view of the atmosphere. Everything to the right of my yellow line is above freezing. Surface temp is about 30, with heavy sleet at 7am

Surface temps have fallen to 24 and we have a snow sleet mix

Here is an idea of what I think will fall. Now, if we can push to all snow quicker in any location, add 2 inches to these numbers.. so Lynchburg would move from 3-6 to 5-8. However, if we stay mixed with sleet, subtract 2 inches and we end up with 1-3 inches. Keep in mind that 3 inches of sleet is the same as about 10 inches of snow in water content, so the clean up is just as difficult.

If I cut your town out on my map feel free to ask me what I think will fall!

Monday, Monday-

I've been monitoring a storm for Monday. It's been the model battle of the year.

The set up:

Sunday will be a fantastic day. Warm-- 55-60, maybe a few bonus degrees if you are nice. However, a SUPER strong arctic front is poised to charge through our area RIGHT as a storm approaches.

As the norm, TIMING will be everything.

The outcome:

Largely undecided at this point.

Best case- Some rain showers Monday, ending as a few flurries and then it gets COLD fast. Temps Tuesday morning may be as low as 10 degrees.

Middle of the road-- Cold air is faster, we flip to snow quickly and get a few inches.

Worst case: Cold air seeps in slowly and we get rain, to freezing rain, to sleet ending as snow. Whatever is on the ground freezes into a BLOCK, which may be under an inch but would just be a total pain to plow, etc.

As of now, I'm leaning a blend with rain flipping to sleet, ending as snow. 1-3 inches EAST of the  Blue Ridge, highest amounts NORTH like Amherst and Nelson County. Roanoke, NRV and Danville flip later with coating to an inch-- of sleet and snow that freezes into a brick as well.

Will update as needed, which will be often. My kids are tired of missing school so I have to pretend to root this one away.

Crystal Ball:

Some model data has hinted at another "Miller A" (Storm that forms in the Gulf and rides the coast) late next week. Exact track and amount of cold air largely in question. I like the potential for a decent event-- but we have a lot to deal with before then.

Cheer up, now-- the cold coming Monday is SUPER cold for March, but even with that, the sun angle is comparable to October so snow and ice WILL melt faster. So, no matter what-- it will only be a day or two.

Minor snow possible Friday Night

Well, I may go back over this event-- but all in all, fun time.

10 inches Lynchburg

18-24 up and down 81.

I'd grade my forecast a B+

10-18 region wide, mentions of sleet and freezing rain east when NO other vendor said anything of it.

Downside, sleet came early, 18+ over large area.

Tomorrow night-- NWS says rain changes to snow 1-2 inches.

Another "clipper" type system will approach tomorrow. Initially, it may be a bit warm but it should cool and fall as snow for a while. Temps will be low 30's so it won't be a huge mess, but I'd think based on thermal profiles we get mostly rain, ending as snow.

Pretty strong energy aloft, so we'll have to watch this one carefully to make sure we don't get any surprises.

Game time@ Who want's to go fast??

Snow has just started in Lynchburg. Looks decent already.

http://youtu.be/gnA1Q2JvvJo?t=3s


If most of the area doesn't break 10 inches, I'll be disappointed.

LYH really should have a top 10 event.

12.7 is the 10th best snowfall in the past 100 years. We should crack that list.

If every thing goes right, top 3 is possible with Ash Wednesday is 17.9 , number 4 is 14.8 inches back in 1948.

NWS has finally introduced sleet from Danvill through South Boston. Sleet could reach here tomorrow AM for a while as we get into a lull.

Any trends today has made tomorrow look more impressive with the passage of the upper air low. I think most have 8-14 on the ground by morning and tomorrow ads 2 to 8 inches depending on where the best banding sets up as the ULL passes.

Thundersnow possible later this evening as the steep lapse rates and tremendous lift goes overhead.

Thundersnow also possible tomorrow with passage of ULL.

Consistency Matters. Top Ten snowfall of past 100 years LIKELY!

In a world of projections, consistency matters.

The Euro has been SO consistent it is scary. In a traditional Miller A, ( storm that originates in the Gulf and moves up the coast) the Euro has show everything we'd be expect and has shown the "mix" line right to Danville and Farmville run after run. It has shown us getting OVER a foot since Saturday. That's unheard of. A few other models have been consistent with something, but this has been nothing short of magical.

Not making a snowmap. 10-18 inches region wide, with a few places maybe getting more.


Snowfall moves in mid to late afternoon, 6pm at the latest in the northern regions.

Looking at records:

In Lynchburg: 
#10 is 12.7 inches, we have a 60% chance of breaking that.
#4 is 14.8 35% chance of beating that
#3 is 17.8  15 % chance we beat that.

# 1 from Blizzard of 96 is likely safe.

In Roanoke:
 12.3 is #10 70% chance that record falls
# 6 is 14.4 from 1961 has a 40% chance of falling
# 4 is 17.4 from 1960 25% chance of falling

#1 is likely safe at 24 inches. :)

Thundersnow VERY possible during the late evening today and then again tomorrow morning.

Storm breakdown:

Once the snow starts, it will be heavy. Some projections have us approaching double digits by MIDNIGHT or shortly thereafter.

At some point, we hit a lull, especially east of the Blue Ridge. In this lull, some freezing drizzle and sleet is possible. Snow we pull back into the region from west to east and then start to taper off afternoon.

Can anything go wrong?? Well, of course. I'd be shocked if most of our region does not see at least 10 inches, but this is a fickle storm. I have some concern about mixing especially Danville to Farmville area. However, factored into that is my 10 inches low mark.

Historical Perspective

Where can this storm rank? I'm not going up, YET from my 8-12 call. The European has 15-20 for our region, but that's a best case. A little more data gets added as the northern energy finally comes ashore and that should help. This needs to strengthen FAST enough and slow down enough to be a top 10 storm, and I'm not convinced we do that.. YET.

So, as of now--8-12 inches, region wide. Maybe a little sleet mixes in Danville to Farmville, with even a little rain or drizzle EVERYWHERE as it winds down Thursday. Temps will be in the mid 20's during the event Wednesday night, but will quickly rise towards freezing as Thursday AM as the event winds down.

Will update later as more data comes in.

If you follow Dave Tolloris at Wxrisk.com or FB under that name, he has Lynchburg in the 16-20 inch mark which would be a top 5 event ever in Lynchburg.

Lynchburg VA top 10 snowfalls per Paul Kocin's Book. I believe it's missing a 14.3 from Feb 1899, as I actually checked newspaper archives 10 years ago or so, but don't want to add it unverified.

1.Jan 6-7 1996   -21.4
2. Knickerbocker storm   Jan 27-28 1922- 20.2
3. Ash Wednesday Storm March 5-7 1962 -17.9
4. Feb 25-26 1934 -14.8
5. Feb 10-11 1983 -14.6
6. Jan 31-Feb 1 1948 -14.5
7. Feb 28-March 1 1969 -13.7
8. Superstorm March 12-13 1993- 13.0
9. Feb 13-14 1960 -12.8
10 December 25-26, 1969 12.7

Roanoke has a top storm of 24.9 from Jan 1996 and #10 is 12.3 from Jan 1966. (adding the 18.6 from 2009)