In a world of projections, consistency matters.
The Euro has been SO consistent it is scary. In a traditional Miller A, ( storm that originates in the Gulf and moves up the coast) the Euro has show everything we'd be expect and has shown the "mix" line right to Danville and Farmville run after run. It has shown us getting OVER a foot since Saturday. That's unheard of. A few other models have been consistent with something, but this has been nothing short of magical.
Not making a snowmap. 10-18 inches region wide, with a few places maybe getting more.
Snowfall moves in mid to late afternoon, 6pm at the latest in the northern regions.
Looking at records:
In Lynchburg:
#10 is 12.7 inches, we have a 60% chance of breaking that.
#4 is 14.8 35% chance of beating that
#3 is 17.8 15 % chance we beat that.
# 1 from Blizzard of 96 is likely safe.
In Roanoke:
12.3 is #10 70% chance that record falls
# 6 is 14.4 from 1961 has a 40% chance of falling
# 4 is 17.4 from 1960 25% chance of falling
#1 is likely safe at 24 inches. :)
Thundersnow VERY possible during the late evening today and then again tomorrow morning.
Storm breakdown:
Once the snow starts, it will be heavy. Some projections have us approaching double digits by MIDNIGHT or shortly thereafter.
At some point, we hit a lull, especially east of the Blue Ridge. In this lull, some freezing drizzle and sleet is possible. Snow we pull back into the region from west to east and then start to taper off afternoon.
Can anything go wrong?? Well, of course. I'd be shocked if most of our region does not see at least 10 inches, but this is a fickle storm. I have some concern about mixing especially Danville to Farmville area. However, factored into that is my 10 inches low mark.
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