I feel obligated to post...Snow threat?

It would be very fitting since I went a warm, dry winter that winter kicks off with an event that completely ruins my winter forecast before both the winter solstice AND meteorological winter. (December 1)

Many of you may have heard a little chatter from various outlets about a storm literally 7-8 days away. Speculation is good, if it's presented as speculation. However, what I fear is blogging has turned into Black Friday shopping where people get earlier and earlier alerts and the public can't gauge the difference between an actual threat a couple days out and just some fun chatter about crazy model outputs.

What are the models showing?

The models are showing some VERY unseasonably cold air moving in out of Canada. At the literally perfect time, a short wave digs in and creates a storm. Now, some model data shows a "Alberta Clipper" type event and other blow it up via "closing off" the upper air low and there is a HUGE event. Some of the data has "fringed" our area with the blow up and others have made it a huge event.

The obligatory snow map from the most extreme run..

6-12 inches in our area, with a lot more just north and east.

What do you think will happen??

This falls under the banner of-- just keep watching. What we know is this: 1. Some colder air is heading in our region for a visit and likely a short wave. My guess is that the cold air won't be as cold as progged and short wave will be much weaker and well north. Hence, the upslope areas well north and west of our area could get a decent upslope snow and some lower lying areas in WELL NORTH of our area could see their first flakes of the year. 

Even if the STRONGER colder air and upper air low cuts of, it is well favored that any extreme event (which  I've stated is unlikely) would happen WELL to our north.

Winter Outlook 2013-2014

I could give you the blah blah of why I don't update, but let's be honest-- I'm a winter weather guy. Yes, I talk Hurricanes and Severe on FB when it happens but my intense forecasting is about winter.

So, if you are NOT a winter fan, you will like my update.

Roanoke, Danville, Lynchburg

5 inches or under of snowfall. Mountain areas see more, but still well below normal.

December temps 1-2 above normal
January 2-3 above normal
February 1-2 above normal.

Not much data I see supports lasting cold or great storm patterns. I like to see how Eurasian snow cover trends in October as the final piece and that did NOT look good.

My point of going so low is to point out that this will be a boring, mild and likely dry winter. I could of hedged at 8-12 inches and hoped for ONE bigger event to save the day. These are ALWAYS possible (not 12+, but a fluke 4-8 inch event)

Why?

I think the Arctic Oscillation runs Neutral to positive most of the winter. ( Cold is bottled up on other side of globe, tighter wound Polar vortex that keeps cold air away)

Negative PDO - leads to trough on West Coast and Ridging in the east.

Storm track well to our west, and when the pattern "relaxes" more east is still into the Ohio Valley reforming off the Delmarva.

If I'm wrong-- there are ways to get stronger discharges of cold air into the east (-EPO) at times. I'm hedging it won't be.

Also, you CAN get a fluke snow storm-- but I'm hedging against that too.

That's all I got to say about that.

Biggest Spring snow in 42 years--

And, a winter review--

Wow, if that storm didn't meet or exceed your expectations you can't place things in proper context.  And, it will be all melted by noon tomorrow.

March 25-26 1971 was the last time Lynchburg had a spring storm of that size. The official total of 6.5 inches  is a little under the 7.3 from 1971, but when we beat a record that is older than ME (turning 40 soon) you need to be impressed.

Such a difficult forecast where I tried to say that if everything went right,we could see 6 inches. How many times has something gone RIGHT this winter for snow? Each event had small challenges and issues that derailed the event--

1. Jan 17 deformation zone forms a bit south compared to modeled and much of Amherst, Bedford and a small sliver of Lynchburg got next to nothing. Sean Sublette in Midtown had 2 inches while Timberlake road had a good 3.5 to 4.5 inches. I put that down as 3.5 but could justify a 4 or even 4.5 honestly.

2. Mid Feb event-- inverted trough that dumps up to 8 inches over parts of Campbell, Appomattox, Charlotte, Buckingham and even into Nelson County. Tricky, tricky event. I drove down Timberlake and it was Covered  with snow from the 460 back entrance near 7/11 and snow free past Lowes. I believe Sean Sublette reported .8 from his house in that neck of the woods.

3. March 5-6- marginal warm temps, early change to snow-- not much backlash. 3-3.5 inches. Didn't feel like that much.

So, this event-- with a bad track record, going more than 1-3 seemed unwise. If you follow me on twitter and FB, I did say 3-5 early afternoon. The overnight went as I expected with 1.5 or so at my place.

Fun event and you may not see this type event, this late in the season for a LONG LONG time.

With that--

My winter outlook--

HERE--
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2012/11/winter-forecast-12-13.html

I should have included March as I would have went cold (Not this cold, but cold)

Seasonal outlooks are rough because it's part skills, part luck and part luck?? So, I'd say it wasn't my finest outlook (09-10 has that honor) but wasn't bad.

Horrible on December, I'd grade it an F.
I said colder, it was +5.5

Better in January- I said +2 and it was +4.3. January was also very went between 2-3 bigger storms.

Feb-- I just missed a decimal, calling for a -3 and it -.3 :)

No March to grade.

Snowfall-- Climo is 18, range of 13-18 and we have that.

2-4 months were drier than normal- I touched on that.

Temps were warmer than I thought, especially early in the winter. I had banked on colder air and it never showed up-- until march.

I want to give myself a B-, but objectively it's more like a C/C- Getting a snow total close due to a late season 7 inch is more luck than skill.

Reluctant Blog, reluctant forecast--

I believe this event was mentioned on my last blog March 17th. Great pattern, strong short wave-- end of March??

As I stated, had this been a January pattern and not the end of March, it of been one for the record books.  March 5-6 is a 10-20 inch event, a couple smaller ones and this one on the horizon. If it were January 24th, I'd be deciding between forecast 3-6 and maybe 8-12.

But, we are stuck. I've considering blogging but being honest-- the models have STUNK this year and it's made it hard. They keep upgrading these things and before you can work out the kinks for your specific region in interpretation, (especially winter with the temp issues of snow vs rain vs sleet) and just a LACK of events has made it a challenge.

So, model data is all over the place. Some models have been showing pretty snowy solutions and others have been showing SOME snow, but daylight, lighter precipt etc makes me infer it won't accumulate.

I'm still a snow lover at heart and part of my NON blogs was just not wanting to invest in ANOTHER event that will disappoint me. I mean, Jan 25th clipper with an inch was fun, but I expected an inch. Jan 17th rain to snow was fun-- 3-5 inches of heavy stuff and 2 hours of the biggest flakes I've seen in LYH was awesome. Everything else has been a let down.

From a snow lovers point of view--

If everything goes right--

We can see 6 inches.

If everything goes wrong, we get a burst of sleet and snow that doesn't lay-- and then occasional flurries and snow showers that don't accumulate.

As a forecaster-- I feel obligated to share both sides and then make an official call.


As of now-- Roanoke and Lynchburg 1-3, with a little sleet likely as the events start. The biggest part is over by 8 PM tomorrow if not sooner and we just have lingering flurries and snow showers.

NRV into the Highlands 2-5-- mostly snow. Better snow in the favored up slope areas.


Will hit Facebook and twitter harder from this point. Everything else will be really now casting. . The LATEST Euro and NAM have a pretty decent burst of snow tomorrow mid day through dinner time.
*GGEM* as well-- canadian model. If your  a snow walk or like taking snow pictures, would be an excellent time.

BTW, no complaining over late March snows. They literally melt the same day. Literally, I would expect most to melt overnight Sunday, event if we get 3-4 inches.

A touch of winter--lingering.

This is the winter that didn't really want to get started, and now really doesn't want to end. 

It's not usually fair to say "What if this were"-- but we've had some pretty strong blocking most of March. Had this taken place 2 months ago-- we'd of had a heck of a winter. The March 5-6 storm likely would have been all snow, and 10-as much as 20 inches region wide. Even with the warm March sun pushing Tuesday March 5 up to 50, it started as sleet in Roanoke with dry and and even the rain here, the first 10 minutes or so had some "slush" in the drops as the dry air didn't allow for total melting. 

With that, another minor event possible-- I should of blogged this yesterday, but the kids got me busy playing Mario on the Wii U :)

Cold front has passed and colder air is filtering in--

This is a 100% timing event-- as warm air is being pushed back over the top and causing more precip to fall. If the timing is off, we could get a little more or less than anticipated. Either way, not a huge event. There are winter storm warnings for the same areas that got BEAT DOWN on the March 5-6 storm The warnings are for 4-8 inches. Timing is good, with much falling as night, but as we've gotten closer, the warm air aloft is coming in a tad faster. So, sleet may be a bigger issue on some areas of 81 as well cutting down on the large 8 inch amounts. (Especially east of the Blue Ridge like Charlottesville)

Southside is mainly safe-- rain. 

NRV would likely see less than LYH and ROA.

Some freezing drizzle is possible after the main batch moves out and we have some linger moisture in the early and mid morning. 

ROA and LYH-- up to a slushy inch of sleet and a little snow. Not a big deal, and certainly likely a school delay NOT needed but I'm sure they will. :)

March isn't over-- and neither is our shots at snow, yet. Data has been hinting around March 25 another "big" coastal low. I know March 5-6 failed due to the lack of fresh cold air-- this storm "may" have it. That's a LONG ways away and subject to much change. 

NO major changes- 1-81 special, north of Lexington!

Last nights model data went with no surprises..

GFS moved towards the EURO

EURO moved towards the GFS.

2-4 inches LYH and ROA, more just north. Parts of Amherst may see close to 10 inches.

460 is the southern extent of "decent" snows--

We get a TON of rain before hand.

FWIW, Short term model NAM is a tad warm, we don't get much accumulation from that one.

Some thoughts before the evening model chaos

Hard to blog when I, well-- work a real job. :)

This morning I hinted that the 6-14 forecasted by the NWS for Lynchburg was likely too high and they've adjusted everyone region wide down, with highest amounts of 6-10 for Amherst  and Rockbridge county.

1. My statement of the ULL needing to touch NE South Carolina is huge-- and this won't happen. HUGE snow option pretty much off the table Lynchburg. Track now is MAYBE just north of 1-40 in North Carolina. If this had very strong cold air, we could deal with this, but in March with no parent high is a no go. 

2. The trend has been more rain and less snow. This was obvious before the 6-14 call this AM from the NWS, but it was "watch" not "warning". My guesses have been a bit high as well. One issue is assuming a trend stops. As this as trending more north and warmer, assuming 36 hours this is done is foolish. So, my current thoughts of 2-5 may be high. 

3. I need to follow my own rules of things ALWAYS trend north. This was NOT a confluence instance (Like Feb 19th last year) that kept it south, but vort interactions. That's a different breed. Some of the data now makes this a full blow Noreaster that runs up the east coast bring big snows along or maybe just west of   of I-95. 

4. The 18z GFS showed another way to get close to 6 inches in Lynchburg. The low takes the further north route and we do get decent rains. However, it REALLY cranks up around SE VA and sends warm air WELL to the North of the low. this pushes the snow bands well to the west and even south west where the decent, accumulating snows make it back to close to 460 in our region, especially east of Roanoke. 

So, with that-- my current thoughts which I will update later tonight or early tomorrow.

For  ROA- 

Mainly rain, ending as a snow, under 2 inches 60%

Ends as snow 2-5 inches 40%

Over 5 inches 10%

For LYH

Mainly rain, ending as snow-- under 2 inches 40%

Ending as snow 2-5 inches 40%

over 5 inches- 20$

Danville--

Anything above 2 inches would shock me. 

NRV- gets a little crazy with elevation. maybe 2-4 inches.

** Edited to say-- you can see how precarious this is** I can totally see Amherst getting 10 inches in the city and by the time you hit Fosters Fuel on 29 it's 2 inches.