Friday, November 1, 2013

Winter Outlook 2013-2014

I could give you the blah blah of why I don't update, but let's be honest-- I'm a winter weather guy. Yes, I talk Hurricanes and Severe on FB when it happens but my intense forecasting is about winter.

So, if you are NOT a winter fan, you will like my update.

Roanoke, Danville, Lynchburg

5 inches or under of snowfall. Mountain areas see more, but still well below normal.

December temps 1-2 above normal
January 2-3 above normal
February 1-2 above normal.

Not much data I see supports lasting cold or great storm patterns. I like to see how Eurasian snow cover trends in October as the final piece and that did NOT look good.

My point of going so low is to point out that this will be a boring, mild and likely dry winter. I could of hedged at 8-12 inches and hoped for ONE bigger event to save the day. These are ALWAYS possible (not 12+, but a fluke 4-8 inch event)

Why?

I think the Arctic Oscillation runs Neutral to positive most of the winter. ( Cold is bottled up on other side of globe, tighter wound Polar vortex that keeps cold air away)

Negative PDO - leads to trough on West Coast and Ridging in the east.

Storm track well to our west, and when the pattern "relaxes" more east is still into the Ohio Valley reforming off the Delmarva.

If I'm wrong-- there are ways to get stronger discharges of cold air into the east (-EPO) at times. I'm hedging it won't be.

Also, you CAN get a fluke snow storm-- but I'm hedging against that too.

That's all I got to say about that.
























2 comments:

  1. Most of that is gibberish to me, but I got the gist and have to say..... WOOOHOOOO!!

    ReplyDelete