If you ain't first, you're last!!

12z Model data is confirming that a colder, snowier solution is becoming more likley. With that, I'm opting to NOT attempt to be the first go bigger, but try to be give an honest presentation of where things sit.

With that, my statement of adding two inches to my first guess seems more and more likely. However, in terms of "wiggle room". I can see 50 miles of wiggle room on the models. 50 mile wiggle north moves LYH from 6-7 inches on the GFS to 2-3 inches. 50 miles wiggle south on the NAM moves LYH into well over a foot (as modeled)

We've got a ways to go here-- I'd expect winter storm watches by either later this afternoon or early Satuday. (Excluding southside)

Full update during late evening model runs.

Is it Raining, Is it Snowing, is a Hurricane-a-Blowing??

Yes! The danger must be growing, for the rowers keep on rowing!!!- Willie Wonka

Challenging forecast on deck--

Literally ALL of the model data has shifted south in the last 24 hours. That's a colder and snowier solution for those of you paying attention at home. The short and sweet version is a piece of energy out runs the storm forces cold air towards us. Associated with that cold air is a stronger jet. This stronger jet also beats the storm up pretty good with a strong jet that comes along with the cold air. 

Further complicating this is the potential for a severe weather outbreak. If the thunderstorms develop, which there is moderate risk, if the orientation isn't right it can reduce moisture influx, at least for a while. 

With so many moving parts, it will be hard to nail down a forecast-- but I do believe we break the shut out of snow this winter in Lynchburg proper. 

The Breakdown- Saturday will make you question whether it will even be able to snow as temps will be over 50. Clouds roll in late and temps fall over night to the upper 30's as rain starts. I think it quickly mixes with snow and sleet, and flips to mainly snow by noon for Blacksburg to Lynchburg. Snow could fall heavy at times for a while and ends late in the evening Sunday. (Lighter snow after 5 PM)

The storm has tended to slow down on the model data and that's a good thing. With that, systems often run faster then modeled. This could be an issue with timing of the cold air-- it's my experience that even if the storm runs faster, doesn't mean the the cold air will be faster. However, we will have tremendous forcing aloft  with the cold air pushing down from the south, strong sub tropical jet to the north-- this creates lift and lift cools the air. 

My map- disclaimer. I focuse mainly on Central and SW VA-- the father away you get, the less I know about your micro climate. If your in grandma's cabin in WV, I've not studied your area in depth. 

My call as of now!

With a ton of variability this is not my final call. With that, if the WARMER solution happens, I'd subtract 2 inches in the green and blue zones and ADD some to the magenta. Anything outside of the blue would end as snow, but just a coating to an inch. 

if the Colder solution verifies, very possible to add 2 inches in the green, blue and yellow zones. 

This or that?

I'm going to throw a quick update now and then see what I can do after the late evening data. Closing out a market at work, so I may just need to sleep. (Unlikely, but sounds noble)

In short, MOST of the model data came in with a more southerly track, with colder temps. Now, this isn't random and there are sound reasons why this could be closer to final track. Basically, southern piece of energy coming out of Mexico is a tad slow, the northern energy races ahead and JUST in time cools the atmosphere. With the northern jet, we have stronger confluence and that doesn't allow the storm to gain latitude and the flow is fast so it rockets off to the east north east.

I'll put out an outlook map later this evening-- as of now, I think the best snows are Staunton, Waynesboro and Harrisonburg due best. However, with the more south trend, the NRV could be in play due to their elevation. Elevation will make a difference. My theory is the change over may be pretty fast getting from lets say Blackburg to Lynchburg-- like within an hour, but Blacksburg is accumulation 3 hours earlier because they don't have to cool the last 1200 feet.-- so there is a slushy coating in Lynchburg and Blacksburg has 2-3 inches.

Silence speaks as loud as war...

This has literally been the most boring winter ever-- at this point outside the mountains we have no Winter Storm Watches, ONE Freezing Rain Advisory that never materialized and on that should have been expanded into Lynchburg. That's it.

There's been an event on the models for several days, and the pattern has looked good for a week or so. I've not blogged, honestly because it's been such a bad winter-- ehh, I'm rusty.

I'll do a more complete update but here is a brief overview-

Energy in the SW states slides east and interacts with  some energy diving south out of the Pacific north west. Not a SUPER strong storm, but it will be a very wet system with a good tropical connection. Regardless of track, I think most of our CWA (forecasting area covered from the NWS Blacksburg office) will see a .75 to 1.25 liquid event. The issue will be timing of the cold air to how much we snow falls.

As of now, I think most of the region starts as rain, but changes to snow before ending. How quickly is the key point. Models have trended colder and wetter, but that doesn't mean that will continue. I'd target Charlottesville west towards Lexington as the higher risk areas of getting a "winter storm warning" type snow (4-5 inches). Much is up in the air still..

I'm a bit under the weather and have an early conference call-- Full update later this evening.

Don't call it a comeback--

The pattern change we have speculated on is coming-- no longer speculation. If the pattern change had NOT developed as speculated, winter would be about flat lined. Instead, it's like the OLD wrestling days of Hulk Hogan in a sleeper hold and as the ref would pick his hand up and drop it once, twice and just as the third drop would be the final blow, his hand would shoot up and he'd garner the strength to break the sleeper, big boot to the face and he's the winner (again)


I often throw out many "initials" and assume that if my readers want to know more the will use google. The Arctic Oscillation, AO which had been very positive is very low at this time -4 today, which is bodes well. The MJO-- which is moving from phase towards phase 7 is good as phases 7-3 tend to be cold and stormy in the east. The NAO is close to neutral which means it's not helping, but could be worse. The AO and NAO have about a .8 correlation or so, so the NAO may start to slide negative.

For the record, I was rather skeptical about this change and still skeptical that it does much for us here in the SW and Central VA region, with that--


Too much technical talk, Keith-- I want snow.

Storm 1 Feb 5-6.

We should have a decent chunk of low level cold air but the pattern isn't ideal. Low cuts to our west and we get maybe a brief period of Snow that goes to ice and maybe rain. Has some potential to be our first "winter storm warning" for the metro areas because the need is for over .25 of ice. Some model data now shows 2-3 inches of snow BEFORE the ice. As the low cuts west a secondary low pops off the coast to our east-- could be bigger event Northern VA west of the DC metro and into central PA.

My take-- In general, the models will look to ominous with snow early on, and as the event gets closer it becomes a mostly freezing rain event. If the the cold air is deep enough, sleet could be a larger part of the equation.

Here is a teaser map from the 12z ECMWF-- This is snowfall late Saturday night. Not saying this is accurate, just SHOWING what a model says. Storm would end as freezing rain in the later frames.

Possible event 2- Feb 9-13 ish.

Overall pattern looks pretty good- the lack of blocking in the NAO region could allow the "mean trough" to be a shade too far east meaning a storm slides off to our south and east and misses us or NOTHING comes from it. There will be some energy coming out of the So CALI region, but we need that energy to make it across the states. We live far enough south that depending on what is called a "miller B" to get snow is a bad idea. (Philly north is the Miller B favored spots)

After mid Feb-- some of the people I trust see it turning warmer. With the -AO at -4, I can see that being wrong, but I'm not sold either way. Something to watch-- the pattern has been so extreme warm, hard to see this being a permanent change.

A little snow this AM, a little ice later on today--

Very rare snow this AM-- easterly fetch from from the Atlantic made a little low level snow to fall. I had no idea we could get something like this this far west, but that's exactly what it was. Since it came from lower tops, wasn't showing up on radar to well either. I have a friend up in Charlottesville who reported a half inch or so.

We've got a freezing rain advisory for everyone in our CWA except the counties along the NC border east of the Blue Ridge-- This won't be a huge event as a far as rain totals, but we've been colder the last 2-3 days and any thing that falls COULD cause a small mess. Temps are in the lower to mid 30's with the dewpoints around 30. If we get a steady rain, temps could fall as low as 30 with the dryer air a little higher up. A few pings of sleet are also possible, especially early. This rolls in after midnight as the winds shift to the south with a stronger storm to our west and low level cold air in place.

I'm glad the NWS put up the advisory-- my fear in events like this is one lives in a warm spot, sees no ice on their car and drives off to hit an ice patch. I've mentioned before in my blog, but there was a rough event like that back in December 07. Only .02 liquid fell, but the roads were horrible between the start and 11 am or so with some horrific wrecks near my home in Forest.

As always, I'll update as needed- via facebook at Keith D. Huffman, add me if you like the data or twitter Lynchburgwx

Long rang still looks uncertain. Reading some conversation between guys with a better skill level than I, wild guess is February comes in close to normal-- maybe 1 degree above normal. Better shot of some ice/snow compared to Dec and Jan, but nothing major. We are still lacking high latitude blocking.

Ice is forming on the tips of my wings--

A little Pink Floyd for some late night ice--

As I suspected, we've flipped to freezing rain in Lynchburg, yet rain in most other regions. Strong flow down the east side of the Blue Ridge brought down just enough cold air to bring us to freezing. I did a brief walk outside and there is no ice on the cars yet, but on some of the trees and bushes there was just enough to notice it if you felt it.

This won't be a huge ice storm, but I just cringe at the thought of ONE bad wreck due to lack of warning. The off hour runs all showed freezing rain in Lynchburg-- so, I'm not shocked, but as I stated, I could have easily seen this being a 33 and very cold rain.

Be safe-- only the favored spots in the shade could get an icy spot or two. There are some heavier bands of ran heading our way and that actually helps the ice to NOT freeze to marginal freezing temps. (Rain falling faster than it can freeze)

Be safe-- if you have friend or family who went to a late movie, grab some food- shoot them a text out of caution.